TD12 Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[JamesFromMaine2]

Heres Katrina!


Flight Level Data
Storm Name: CYCLONE (12L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: AF307
Flt Data Number: 25
Latest Recon Position: 198 mi SE of Nassau, Bahamas

Ob #01: 06:29:30Z; 22.8°N 74.8°W; PA: 2520 ft; D-Value: 75 ft; Wind: S (183°) @ 35 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 68°F; Max Wind: 36 mph; Radar Altitude: 2664 ft
Ob #02: 06:30:00Z; 22.8°N 74.8°W; PA: 2516 ft; D-Value: 75 ft; Wind: S (181°) @ 32 mph; Temp: 70°F; Dewpt: 69°F; Max Wind: 32 mph; Radar Altitude: 2661 ft
Ob #03: 06:30:30Z; 22.8°N 74.8°W; PA: 2523 ft; D-Value: 75 ft; Wind: S (184°) @ 35 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 69°F; Max Wind: 36 mph; Radar Altitude: 2667 ft
Ob #04: 06:31:00Z; 22.9°N 74.8°W; PA: 2526 ft; D-Value: 72 ft; Wind: S (183°) @ 33 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 69°F; Max Wind: 36 mph; Radar Altitude: 2667 ft
Ob #05: 06:31:30Z; 22.9°N 74.8°W; PA: 2516 ft; D-Value: 69 ft; Wind: S (184°) @ 32 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 69°F; Max Wind: 33 mph; Radar Altitude: 2657 ft
Ob #06: 06:32:00Z; 22.9°N 74.8°W; PA: 2530 ft; D-Value: 66 ft; Wind: S (186°) @ 37 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 69°F; Max Wind: 38 mph; Radar Altitude: 2664 ft
Ob #07: 06:32:30Z; 22.9°N 74.8°W; PA: 2513 ft; D-Value: 62 ft; Wind: S (188°) @ 40 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 68°F; Max Wind: 40 mph; Radar Altitude: 2641 ft
Ob #08: 06:33:00Z; 23°N 74.8°W; PA: 2526 ft; D-Value: 59 ft; Wind: S (185°) @ 40 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 69°F; Max Wind: 41 mph; Radar Altitude: 2657 ft
Ob #09: 06:33:30Z; 23°N 74.8°W; PA: 2530 ft; D-Value: 59 ft; Wind: S (184°) @ 43 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 69°F; Max Wind: 43 mph; Radar Altitude: 2657 ft
Ob #10: 06:34:00Z; 23°N 74.8°W; PA: 2516 ft; D-Value: 59 ft; Wind: S (186°) @ 40 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 69°F; Max Wind: 41 mph; Radar Altitude: 2644 ft
Ob #11: 06:34:30Z; 23.1°N 74.8°W; PA: 2536 ft; D-Value: 59 ft; Wind: S (179°) @ 39 mph; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 68°F; Max Wind: 40 mph; Radar Altitude: 2661 ft
Ob #12: 06:35:00Z; 23.1°N 74.8°W; PA: 2516 ft; D-Value: 56 ft; Wind: S (177°) @ 37 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 69°F; Max Wind: 38 mph; Radar Altitude: 2644 ft
Ob #13: 06:35:30Z; 23.1°N 74.8°W; PA: 2516 ft; D-Value: 56 ft; Wind: S (180°) @ 39 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 69°F; Max Wind: 40 mph; Radar Altitude: 2641 ft
Ob #14: 06:36:00Z; 23.2°N 74.8°W; PA: 2530 ft; D-Value: 56 ft; Wind: S (177°) @ 41 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 69°F; Max Wind: 43 mph; Radar Altitude: 2657 ft
Ob #15: 06:36:30Z; 23.2°N 74.8°W; PA: 2523 ft; D-Value: 52 ft; Wind: S (177°) @ 41 mph; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 68°F; Max Wind: 41 mph; Radar Altitude: 2644 ft
Ob #16: 06:37:00Z; 23.2°N 74.8°W; PA: 2526 ft; D-Value: 49 ft; Wind: S (173°) @ 41 mph; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 68°F; Max Wind: 41 mph; Radar Altitude: 2644 ft
Ob #17: 06:37:30Z; 23.3°N 74.8°W; PA: 2516 ft; D-Value: 43 ft; Wind: SSE (165°) @ 35 mph; Temp: 66°F; Dewpt: 66°F; Max Wind: 36 mph; Radar Altitude: 2628 ft
Ob #18: 06:38:00Z; 23.3°N 74.9°W; PA: 2523 ft; D-Value: 39 ft; Wind: S (177°) @ 33 mph; Temp: 65°F; Dewpt: 65°F; Max Wind: 36 mph; Radar Altitude: 2631 ft
Ob #19: 06:38:30Z; 23.3°N 74.9°W; PA: 2510 ft; D-Value: 36 ft; Wind: S (182°) @ 46 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 63°F; Max Wind: 50 mph; Radar Altitude: 2615 ft
Ob #20: 06:39:00Z; 23.4°N 74.9°W; PA: 2520 ft; D-Value: 36 ft; Wind: S (186°) @ 48 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 63°F; Max Wind: 50 mph; Radar Altitude: 2625 ft

[gkrangers]

Ok....some 00z model discusion..well..not really discussion, just reading at face value.

00z canadian says washington DC? the hell? forget it.

00z NOGAPS says near New Orleans.

00z ECMWF says near Destin, FL.

00z UKMET says probably (extrapolating) the Nawlins to MS/AL border area.

00z GFS...I really don't care.

OK but just for fun...GFS brings it north to offshore FLL...then land at FLL...then stall over land inland of FLL to Okeechobee area for a bit..then NNE towards Daytona Beach and then further north into the Atlantic..skirting the outer banks as it moves northeastward out to sea.

So the GFS is STILL the right outlier. The rest are in consensus of a GOM track to a LA-FL Panhandle landfall.

[clfenwi]

TPNT KGWC 240715 RTD
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
B. 24/0615Z (73)
C. XX.X
D. XX.X
E. GOES12
F. TX.X/2.0 -24/0615Z-
G. IR/EIR

UNABLE TO LOCATE LLCC. NO DISCERNABLE CIRCULATION
COULD BE FOUND ON IR IMAGERY/ANMTN.

AODT: N/A

SCHULTZ/ALEXANDER

[SouthFloridawx]

TPNT KGWC 240715 RTD
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
B. 24/0615Z (73)
C. XX.X
D. XX.X
E. GOES12
F. TX.X/2.0 -24/0615Z-
G. IR/EIR

UNABLE TO LOCATE LLCC. NO DISCERNABLE CIRCULATION
COULD BE FOUND ON IR IMAGERY/ANMTN.

AODT: N/A

SCHULTZ/ALEXANDER

have to wait for QS and visible images in the morning when the sun comes up....

[gkrangers]

TPNT KGWC 240715 RTD
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
B. 24/0615Z (73)
C. XX.X
D. XX.X
E. GOES12
F. TX.X/2.0 -24/0615Z-
G. IR/EIR

UNABLE TO LOCATE LLCC. NO DISCERNABLE CIRCULATION
COULD BE FOUND ON IR IMAGERY/ANMTN.

AODT: N/A

SCHULTZ/ALEXANDER

In other words, its under the convection.

[SouthFloridawx]

TPNT KGWC 240715 RTD
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
B. 24/0615Z (73)
C. XX.X
D. XX.X
E. GOES12
F. TX.X/2.0 -24/0615Z-
G. IR/EIR

UNABLE TO LOCATE LLCC. NO DISCERNABLE CIRCULATION
COULD BE FOUND ON IR IMAGERY/ANMTN.

AODT: N/A

SCHULTZ/ALEXANDER

In other words, its under the convection.

LOL that's not good for the folks that are threatend by it is it?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So they can't find a center????

[gkrangers]

Nope....stands a better chance of strengthening.

SAB made a fix and recon still confirms a center...so no big deal before anyone freaks out over it.

[Thunder44]

Satellite estimates really don't matter much, when you got a plane in there.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE 12L



INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 24



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 23.8 76.5 310./ 6.0

6 24.4 76.8 333./ 7.2

12 24.8 77.0 333./ 3.9

18 25.1 77.4 314./ 5.4

24 25.5 77.8 315./ 5.4

30 25.8 78.2 304./ 4.6

36 25.7 78.7 256./ 4.5

42 25.2 79.0 209./ 5.4

48 25.1 79.4 252./ 4.0

54 25.0 79.9 256./ 5.1

60 25.0 80.0 292./ .5

66 25.4 80.4 314./ 5.5

72 25.7 81.1 292./ 7.3

78 25.9 81.7 293./ 6.1

84 26.4 82.4 302./ 7.4

90 26.7 83.1 298./ 7.4

96 27.0 83.9 292./ 7.2

102 27.6 84.5 311./ 7.9

108 28.3 85.1 322./ 8.5

114 29.0 85.2 345./ 6.9

120 29.7 85.4 348./ 7.8

126 30.6 85.4 1./ 9.1

[nequad]

I smell a right hook in our future...

[Skyline]

Poor Florida. I hear they are starting to give away land in the Mid-West.

[shaggy]

its interesting to see the CMC and the GFS models both bring it into Florida then turn it north and along the SE coast or just inland.In fact the CMC has the storm the deepest over Virginia in tha last few frames.Katrina seems to be moving a little more NNW but Florida still looks to get a decent smack.

[x-y-no]

That run of the Canadian is complete nonsense. No way it continually deepens while interating with land.

I also note that the 6z GFS still does basically the same thing as earlier runs, but a little further west - i.e. it gets out into the Gulf before making the NNE turn.

I don't buy either solution. I'm still thinking Louisiana to the panhandle, with not much confidence where in that range it goes.

[Frank2]

I mentioned the below in another thread, but felt it also worth posting here:

The 8 a.m. advisory has the storm moving erratically (though the latitude has increased from 24.0 to 24.4, so more of a northward component), and, looking at the WV loop, is seems that the system is being pulled northward at this time because the ULL has now moved west of the circulation center - how far it continues northwestward (instead of west-northwestward) remains to be seen. However, the TCD did mention the current weakness off the east coast, so, the current northward nudge by the ULL might help to bring Katrina that much closer to the vicinity of this weakness.

Frank

[floridahurricaneguy]

Yay! We now have katrinia. Well thats if you can say yay to that. Deffinitely looking like Central Florida will get more of a smack now. Expecting even Tampa now to get more then expected. Still nothing drmatic but light TS winds and heavy rain. Am I totally nuts? If the track gets shifted north later. I am bettin watches and warnings will be shifted north and new ones for west coast for areas like tampa.

Matt

[shaggy]

good obs frank hadn't noticed that but i am just getting off graveyard shift and haven't seen much on newly formed Katrina just ran a few models to see what was going on

[cycloneye]

Ok since it is now TS Katrina I will lock this thread and create a new one with comments about Katrina.