Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.



Current - 18.0/85.1 - 30mph - 1006mb - Low
12 hrs - 19.4/85.8 - 30mph - 1006mb - Low
24 hrs - 21.1/86.5 - 30mph - 1004mb - Low
36 hrs - 22.6/87.0 - 35mph - 1003mb - TD#1
48 hrs - 24.9/86.8 - 40mph - 1002mb - TS Alberto
72 hrs - 28.5/85.7 - 60mph - 994mb
96 hrs - 32.1/82.8 - 30mph - 999mb - Inland
120 hrs - Absorbed by front

[boca]

Watching this system develop is like watching a fly crawl up a drape.

[Noles2006]

Haha, Crazy, thanks! That would bring it right to my front door!

[whereverwx]

Do you think it could have a path similar to Hurricane Allison (1995)?

[CrazyC83]

Haha, Crazy, thanks! That would bring it right to my front door!

The landfall intensity in my prediction is 50 mph (weakening on the approach - cooler water), and peak intensity is 60 mph.

[CrazyC83]

Do you think it could have a path similar to Hurricane Allison (1995)?

That is what I am leaning towards.

[Cyclenall]

Watching this system develop is like watching a fly crawl up a drape.

I know, I thought it was starting to spin a bit just by looking that the still frame but when I looped it, there wasn't spinning of this system yet. Once that starts then everything should start taking off.

How fast will it be moving in the next 48 hours?

[CHRISTY]

Guys i really think the system is to large to develope rapidly.the circulation visible is upper level outflow....and probably a little shear to confuse things somewhat.to me no low level circulation is apparent.
here the linkhttp://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8ir.html

[boca]

You can walk faster than this system is moving currently.

[Noles2006]

Did Allison make landfall near St. Marks? I remember we were expecting some weather from her because she was a top-end TS by the time she made landfall, but got barely anything. Very weak system.

[skysummit]

Here's an updated model plot including the 18z NAM.

[CrazyC83]

Guys i really think the system is to large to develope rapidly.the circulation visible is upper level outflow....and probably a little shear to confuse things somewhat.to me no level circulation is apparent.
here the linkhttp://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8ir.html

My prediction doesn't even develop it for 36 hours, and then it is gradual. The conditions I don't think are ripe for explosive development - they seldom are in June. (Besides Audrey, I can't name any storms that went into rapid intensification in June)

[Bgator]

Well, i say that by tomorrow we can have a TD, im still shaky on where the actual LLC is, but i guess i'll have to wait 18N 85W sounds pretty good, i think it may develop more east, i think central florida is a good bet for this one!

[wzrgirl1]

You know how they say the trend is your friend..........remember where the plots were this morning and look where they are now..........will this continue?

[Evil Jeremy]

why is this topic still unlocked?

EDIT: sorry, just saw the news topic.

[Cyclenall]

Guys i really think the system is to large to develope rapidly.the circulation visible is upper level outflow....and probably a little shear to confuse things somewhat.to me no level circulation is apparent.
here the linkhttp://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8ir.html

My prediction doesn't even develop it for 36 hours, and then it is gradual. The conditions I don't think are ripe for explosive development - they seldom are in June. (Besides Audrey, I can't name any storms that went into rapid intensification in June)

That reminds me, can very weak TC's rapidly develop? Like a tropical depression becoming a hurricane in 4 hours?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Yeah I say landfall between the Florida Panhandle and Central Florida, then out to sea eventually passing south of Nova Scotia. If I had to guess right now.

[Evil Jeremy]

also, how do you make a forecast graphic loke the one way above?

[CHRISTY]

what a difference in the models the all turn it now!there's even one down in south florida.

[CHRISTY]

guys greg setzer from channel 4 just said the low level center continues to shift east and that might have implications for southflorida in the long run.