94L Invest Comments Thread #2

[beachbum_al]

As I read this and keep up with what is going on I keep thinking about the fact that my husband and his friends went fishing yesterday morning out of LA near Venice and they are supposed to be coming back today by boat through the Gulf. Yes, I am scared. I have been trying to call him today and either his phone is dead or he is out of cell range. So keep me updated on what the weather is doing.

Have you gotten a hold of him yet?

No I haven't and I am getting worried. It is not like them to do this. Usually the captain of this boat is very senstive to bad weather. They had no idea this was going to take place off of LA when they left out of here yesterday morning from Orange Beach/Perdido Pass. As soon as I know something or hear I will let you know. I am willing to go get them from LA if I have to.

[Stratosphere747]

I've noticed that over the last few hours, though the concern from the NWS is areas west of I-45. They did mention that the last few model runs had it shifting a bit more towards the East.

With or without a true TD,TS there will be some long hours over the next few days for the local area mets....

[CHRISTY]

From accuweather....

Tropical moisture is still streaming into Texas, the result of a tropical wave that has moved inland into northeast Mexico, and an upper-level low over southwest Texas. These two features are combining to produce widespread cloudiness over the Lone Star state, and thunderstorms with heavy downpours are moving into the southern and eastern counties. Since this process is going to continue for another few days, rainfall amounts are likely to become excessive, exceeding 6 inches in parts of southern and eastern Texas. This will lead to localized flooding problems. Should the upper-level low wander into southeastern Texas as some of the computer models are indicating, then the potential will exist for incredible rainfall amounts comparable to the rains of June 18-19 in the Houston area.

[Stormcenter]

From accuweather....

Tropical moisture is still streaming into Texas, the result of a tropical wave that has moved inland into northeast Mexico, and an upper-level low over southwest Texas. These two features are combining to produce widespread cloudiness over the Lone Star state, and thunderstorms with heavy downpours are moving into the southern and eastern counties. Since this process is going to continue for another few days, rainfall amounts are likely to become excessive, exceeding 6 inches in parts of southern and eastern Texas. This will lead to localized flooding problems. Should the upper-level low wander into southeastern Texas as some of the computer models are indicating, then the potential will exist for incredible rainfall amounts comparable to the rains of June 18-19 in the Houston area.

Doesn't look like that is happening right now as it was yesterday per statellite loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

From accuweather....

Tropical moisture is still streaming into Texas, the result of a tropical wave that has moved inland into northeast Mexico, and an upper-level low over southwest Texas. These two features are combining to produce widespread cloudiness over the Lone Star state, and thunderstorms with heavy downpours are moving into the southern and eastern counties. Since this process is going to continue for another few days, rainfall amounts are likely to become excessive, exceeding 6 inches in parts of southern and eastern Texas. This will lead to localized flooding problems. Should the upper-level low wander into southeastern Texas as some of the computer models are indicating, then the potential will exist for incredible rainfall amounts comparable to the rains of June 18-19 in the Houston area.

Doesn't look like that is happening right now as it was yesterday per statellite loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

the upper level low is over western/central TX right now. It was not what we were watching in the GOM.

Take a look at this loop to see what is happening:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
^^The upper low is pulling in copious amounts of Gulf moisture into SE Texas.^^

[SouthFloridawx]

As I read this and keep up with what is going on I keep thinking about the fact that my husband and his friends went fishing yesterday morning out of LA near Venice and they are supposed to be coming back today by boat through the Gulf. Yes, I am scared. I have been trying to call him today and either his phone is dead or he is out of cell range. So keep me updated on what the weather is doing.

Have you gotten a hold of him yet?

No I haven't and I am getting worried. It is not like them to do this. Usually the captain of this boat is very senstive to bad weather. They had no idea this was going to take place off of LA when they left out of here yesterday morning from Orange Beach/Perdido Pass. As soon as I know something or hear I will let you know. I am willing to go get them from LA if I have to.

K let us know... we'll be waiting impatiently.

[Stormcenter]

From accuweather....

Tropical moisture is still streaming into Texas, the result of a tropical wave that has moved inland into northeast Mexico, and an upper-level low over southwest Texas. These two features are combining to produce widespread cloudiness over the Lone Star state, and thunderstorms with heavy downpours are moving into the southern and eastern counties. Since this process is going to continue for another few days, rainfall amounts are likely to become excessive, exceeding 6 inches in parts of southern and eastern Texas. This will lead to localized flooding problems. Should the upper-level low wander into southeastern Texas as some of the computer models are indicating, then the potential will exist for incredible rainfall amounts comparable to the rains of June 18-19 in the Houston area.

Doesn't look like that is happening right now as it was yesterday per statellite loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

the upper level low is over western/central TX right now. It was not what we were watching in the GOM.

Take a look at this loop to see what is happening:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
^^The upper low is pulling in copious amounts of Gulf moisture into SE Texas.^^

Oh I know it is still happening in SE Texas but not as widespread and to the extent that it was yesterday. The moisture flow seems to have shifted eastward somewhat toward LA.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[wxman57]

As I read this and keep up with what is going on I keep thinking about the fact that my husband and his friends went fishing yesterday morning out of LA near Venice and they are supposed to be coming back today by boat through the Gulf. Yes, I am scared. I have been trying to call him today and either his phone is dead or he is out of cell range. So keep me updated on what the weather is doing.

I've been watching the wind/sea reports along the LA coast. Actually the winds are fairly light - about 8-12 kts - with a 1-2 foot wind wave. There's an easterly swell of 2-3 feet. So wind and sea conditions outside of thunderstorms are quite low. Yes, there are a few thunderstorms offshore, but nothing extremely heavy and concentrated. There is very little chance that the disorganized area of thunderstorms across the NW Gulf will turn into a tropical storm. Pressures remain very high offshore, and there are no signs of any organization.

As for reaching your husband by cell phone, remember that there are no towers in south Louisiana, and many along the coast of Mississippi were destroyed after Katrina and Rita, so there won't be any cell coverage along the coast. That's likely why you cannot reach him. I'm sure he's probably fine, just dodging showers and thunderstorms on the way back Alabama.

[Canebo]

From accuweather....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
^^The upper low is pulling in copious amounts of Gulf moisture into SE Texas.^^

So far in our area just north of Galveston, we have had a pleasant, overcast day without any rain. The only copious rain is in the Gulf, and it has been dying out before it makes it very far inland. Guess we'll see how their predictions of heavy rain pans out over the next few days. No rain today and only a moderate shower yesterday has me wondering if I'll be watering by week's end instead of watching the cats and dogs falling from the sky.

[hriverajr]

A little off topic... Is their any rhyme or reason as to when/why GHCC satellite pictures are on rapid scan. They are currently. They seem to go into rapid scan mode more often. Anyone knows why?

[vbhoutex]

Don't let your guard down anywhere in SE TX or along the TX coastal bend. The moisture is slowy moving N into our area and the actual possible heavy rains for this area are not expected to start till sometime later tonight and then continue pretty much unabated for around 48 hours or so. I hope the forecasts are wrong, but some areas could hit the 20" mark again with many going over 5".

This is from Jeff Lindner, one of our Pro-mets and a Houston local.

Dangerous flash flood threat developing over SE TX.

Flood Watch extended through 600pm Monday.

Moisture levels expected to increase to extraordinary levels...equal if not greater than those of TS Allison.

Somebody is going to get a tremendous amount of rain over the next 72 hours, but as always the where and when is the big question mark.

Current:

Upper level low of W TX is dragging rich PW air mass over the western Gulf of Mexico northward this afternoon. CRP sounding showed PW of 2.25 inches and GOES sounder shows values of 2.3-2.5 inches over the western Gulf heading this way. NAM model is absolutely scary with nearly continues convective explosions over SE TX through WEDNESDAY. Rich tropical air mass will "flood" inland later tonight and interact with increasingly favorable dynamics over the area to produce waves of very heavy rainfall.

Monday/Tuesday:

Models are painting excessive rainfall through this entire 48 hour period and HPC agrees. With PWS so high, hourly rainfall rates of 4-6 inches will be possible. Training of cells along meso scale boundaries (outflow, seabreeze, ect) could produce 5-10 inches in a few hours. Would not be surprised if somebody over SE TX sees 15 inches by Tuesday evening. 2-5 day totals could be extremely high (20 inches maybe??).

Feel the greatest threat will be along and W of I-45 where moisture will be greatest and that location will be in a favored vented region of the upper low. Potential widespread and prolonged nature of the event points to big concerns for the larger rivers across the region. High hourly rainfall rates will pose big problems for the smaller watersheds and urban areas.

Will have to pay close attention to the upper low as it may try and transition into a warm core tropical like system and begin producing nocturnal core rainfall events which as we know can be devastating.

JL

[beachbum_al]

Update on my husband. They are back in. I just talked to him. He said last night and this morning were rough. They left around 11am and it took forever to get in. Rough ride but at least they are okay.

[southerngale]

That's what they're saying David, and I know they're the experts, but just looking at a long-range radar out into the GOM, there's certainly a lot less convection than earlier today. at least as far as I can see. It rained a good bit here this morning and then was just cloudy most of the afternoon until a few minutes ago when a good downpour started here, but it's a scattered shower that just developed over me. Overall, it looks less ominous to me, but then again, what do I know?

[southerngale]

Update on my husband. They are back in. I just talked to him. He said last night and this morning were rough. They left around 11am and it took forever to get in. Rough ride but at least they are okay.

Great news, beachbum!!

[SouthFloridawx]

Update on my husband. They are back in. I just talked to him. He said last night and this morning were rough. They left around 11am and it took forever to get in. Rough ride but at least they are okay.

Great news, beachbum!!

Yep good news... thanks for the update.

[skysummit]

As for reaching your husband by cell phone, remember that there are no towers in south Louisiana, and many along the coast of Mississippi were destroyed after Katrina and Rita, so there won't be any cell coverage along the coast. That's likely why you cannot reach him. I'm sure he's probably fine, just dodging showers and thunderstorms on the way back Alabama.

I just wanted to correct this....that's FAR from the truth. I work for Verizon Wireless and we were back on the air in the New Orleans Metro area within two days of Katrina. It was spotty at first and coverage was limited primarily to emergency personnel, but it improved with each and every day. Cingular was a little late, but they're fully back also...Nextel, Sprint, T-Mobile, etc. are also back. There were only a handfull of towers that got destroyed during the storms. The majority of the damage was done to the actual equipment on the ground that went under water. We built an emergency network the along the entire gulf coast that was fully functional within 2 weeks of Katrina. I promise you, cell coverage along the coast is back to normal, and in most cases with us....better than ever.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB said that there is a mid-level circulation tonight moving north off the TX coast that could potentially try to have some rouge development as it approaches the coast, but as of now he said there is no LLC. He did say, however, that he will be watching that area closely overnight.

[Extremeweatherguy]

BTW: Is anyone seeing this new blow up of convection coming off the Yucatan? This could reach TX by tomorrow or Tuesday if it holds together:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[SouthFloridawx]

BTW: Is anyone seeing this new blow up of convection coming off the Yucatan? This could reach TX by tomorrow or Tuesday if it holds together:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

We are monitoring that area in the old 93L thread.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=120

[Portastorm]

BTW: Is anyone seeing this new blow up of convection coming off the Yucatan? This could reach TX by tomorrow or Tuesday if it holds together:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Not trying to poo-poo your excitement ... but isn't that a diurnal event? I seem to see thunderstorms rolling westward off the Yucatan peninsula every evening about this time.