96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

#321 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:54 pm

This hasn't come up in recent months (or I missed it), so for those interested, there are 4 buoys you can watch. I check them most mornings early. *lat-lons are rounded, so not exact - it's the ocean :wink:

41041 14.5N 46.0W
41040 14.5N 53.0W
41101 14.6N 56.2W
41100 15.9N 57.9W

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

#322 Postby **abajan** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:01 pm

I'll be very surprised if this becomes a TD. There's simply too much shear ahead of it.

IMO, it's a good poof candidate! :lol:

Thunder44 · #323 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:01 pm

NDG wrote:OK, I admit now that it starting to get some NW shear from the building UL High to its west, east of the islands, so it will be getting some shear the next 12-24 hrs before moving underneath UL anticyclonic flow once again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

I knew from this morning that it was going to struggle today because of this.

beachbum_al · #324 Postby **beachbum_al** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:04 pm

bvigal wrote:This hasn't come up in recent months (or I missed it), so for those interested, there are 4 buoys you can watch. I check them most mornings early. *lat-lons are rounded, so not exact - it's the ocean

41041 14.5N 46.0W
41040 14.5N 53.0W
41101 14.6N 56.2W
41100 15.9N 57.9W

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

I am going to ask really stupid question which is kind of off subject but is it normal to have seas that high in this area. I am use to seeing seas around 1 to 2ft off the gulf of mexico when I check the buoys. Of course the fartherest I check is 160nm out.

#325 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:13 pm

beachbum_al wrote:
bvigal wrote:This hasn't come up in recent months (or I missed it), so for those interested, there are 4 buoys you can watch. I check them most mornings early. *lat-lons are rounded, so not exact - it's the ocean

41041 14.5N 46.0W
41040 14.5N 53.0W
41101 14.6N 56.2W
41100 15.9N 57.9W

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

I am going to ask really stupid question which is kind of off subject but is it normal to have seas that high in this area. I am use to seeing seas around 1 to 2ft off the gulf of mexico when I check the buoys. Of course the fartherest I check is 160nm out.

That is an excellent (not stupid!) question. 5-7ft, or even 8ft in those areas are not unusual for this time of year.

#326 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:15 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 102112
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS MINIMAL AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

canegrl04 · #327 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:19 pm

If that wave can survive the shear,its got an excellent chance of becoming Beryl

#328 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:21 pm

New shear outlook - http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

Looks like shear will decrease, with plenty of red spots. I'm going to bump the development chance up to 30%, but it is still at least 36 hours away.

Cyclenall · #329 Postby **Cyclenall** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:24 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:New shear outlook - http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

Looks like shear will decrease, with plenty of red spots. I'm going to bump the development chance up to 30%, but it is still at least 36 hours away.

If that shear map was correct, then that means this wave would have a 90% chance of forming in it's lifetime. However, that shear map is wrong because when I compare it to all the rest it's totally different.

#330 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:27 pm

Has anyone noticed that the GFDL on this invest has not run for 32hrs? No appearance of this low on the deterministic models for the last 32 hrs?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
That sort of is a hint, this invest was dropped this morning by NHC, at least by noon, don't you think?

cheezyWXguy · #331 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:44 pm

I think this has a great shot at becoming a named storm once it passes thru the islands...yall realize that shear is decreasing all over the caribbean and also parts of the caribbean. in about 2 days, I expect this thing to come back fully if shear continues to weaken...by then Im pretty sure well be able to tell if beryl is coming or not.

shear map:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

#332 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 5:17 pm

The next 6-10 hours I think will be important to whether this wave is able to make it any further along into developing. Its recent history has shown a pulse of convection late in the day into the evening, if it can't do that again tonight it won't make it through tomorrow as anything more than some scattered showers and a surge of trade winds for the islands.

Beyond that is just a guess at this point.

#333 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 5:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:ABNT20 KNHC 102112
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS MINIMAL AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

it's looking like the harsh Atlantic conditions will kill yet another invest.....

this sums it up

#334 Postby **WxGuy1** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 5:40 pm

cheezywxman wrote:I think this has a great shot at becoming a named storm once it passes thru the islands...yall realize that shear is decreasing all over the caribbean and also parts of the caribbean. in about 2 days, I expect this thing to come back fully if shear continues to weaken...by then Im pretty sure well be able to tell if beryl is coming or not.

shear map:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

I disagree... The 12z GFS forecast indicates 30-40kts easterly 850mb flow beneath 20-30kts 250mb northerly flow Wednesday, which certainly doesn't result in weak windshear. Shear may be decreasing now, but it'll increase soon as low-level flow increases. Most models agree with the development of a cut-off low in the central Gulf of Mexico this evening, which retrogrades to the western Gulf by the end of the week. Neither of these areas (Carib and GoM) will be too hot for development IMO through the work week.

FWIW, the GFS and WRF do indicate one or two decent storms west of Mexico in a couple/few days. Alas, that's a different thread.

beachbum_al · #335 Postby **beachbum_al** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 6:46 pm

bvigal wrote:
beachbum_al wrote:
bvigal wrote:I am going to ask really stupid question which is kind of off subject but is it normal to have seas that high in this area. I am use to seeing seas around 1 to 2ft off the gulf of mexico when I check the buoys. Of course the fartherest I check is 160nm out.

That is an excellent (not stupid!) question. 5-7ft, or even 8ft in those areas are not unusual for this time of year.

Thank you!

#336 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:01 pm

WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 14N MOVING W
AROUND 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE IS NEAR 11N. SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL. IT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...SO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 46W-49W. COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST THE WAVE TO AFFECT THE
LESSER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY AND PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...INCREASING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA.

Above is the 8 PM discussion.

#337 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:04 pm

There is virtually no shear around 20°N. If that area sinks southward or if the system moves northward, then look out! However, this needs to get to that to develop. Shear is way too high where it sits now. Storms do not develop in 40 knot shear.

It needs to get to about 17°N before it enters the blacks and blues.

#338 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:06 pm

beachbum_al wrote:
bvigal wrote:This hasn't come up in recent months (or I missed it), so for those interested, there are 4 buoys you can watch. I check them most mornings early. *lat-lons are rounded, so not exact - it's the ocean

41041 14.5N 46.0W
41040 14.5N 53.0W
41101 14.6N 56.2W
41100 15.9N 57.9W

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

I am going to ask really stupid question which is kind of off subject but is it normal to have seas that high in this area. I am use to seeing seas around 1 to 2ft off the gulf of mexico when I check the buoys. Of course the fartherest I check is 160nm out.

I've been forecasting wave heights in that region since 1980 and can tell you that a 5-6 foot wind wave is a bit below average. On the south side of the Bermuda high, winds are usually in the 20-25 kts. With a very long fetch, that wind speed supports a wave height in the 7-9 foot range with about a 7 second period. As for the Gulf of Mexico, July is typically the month with the lowest wind and seas. Not uncommon to have winds close to 10 kts or less and 1-2 ft waves in July in the Gulf.

#339 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:43 pm

Today's Discussion
A tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles might have favorable conditions for development in a few days
Posted: 10-JUL-2006 6:01pm EDT

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski

We are tracking tropical waves along 68 west and along 46 west. The wave along 68 west extends to about 23 north and is moving to the west at 10-15kts or about 6 degrees longitude per day. This wave is causing an increase in clouds, showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Dominican Republic, far southeast Bahamas and into Puerto Rico. That wave will help bring a moisture surge into south and central Florida on Wednesday and Thursday. A large area of dry air follows this wave over the Leeward Islands.

The wave along 46 west has a curved cloud structure that extends up to about 15 north. This wave is moving west at about 6 degrees longitude per day. Microwave satellite images show clusters of thunderstorms and a slight rotary motion in the thunderstorm pattern. This is often the beginning signs of a possible low level or upper level feature forming. For the first time this tropical season the shear has relaxed over the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern Caribbean. Current shear in the path of this wave is genrally less than 10kts and that's not enough to kill the wave. Another problem with this season thus far has been higher than normal surface pressures over the Caribbean. Current surface data indicates that surface pressures are lower today compared to last week and are near normal for the most part. If surface pressure continues to lower and the shear continues to relax over the eastern Caribbean and near the Lesser Antilles this wave could try to organize in a few days. This wave will move into the Lesser Antilles Wednesday night and Thursday.

Atlantic/Gulf/Caribbean

#340 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 8:00 pm

Looking at the RGB it looks like that wave spun up at least a Mid Level Circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

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