99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

HurricaneHunter914 · #321 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:37 am

I thought winds needed to be 30 mph for a Tropical System to become a Tropical depression.

#322 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:40 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:i dont think this thing will turn that nuch...expect this to move thru most of the carribean...besides, none of the models posted are very good with weaker systems

Looking at the GFS and other models I see a weakening mid to upper level ridge which, if this thing eventually gets organized enough would allow it to move NW and possibly not into the Caribbean.

Thunder44 · #323 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:42 am

9z wind shear analysis from CIMSS this morning indicates that this maybe heading towards an area of higher shear (20kts) soon:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Scorpion · #324 Postby **Scorpion** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:43 am

20 kts isn't nearly enough to destroy it.

Extremeweatherguy · #325 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:43 am

Thunder44 wrote:9z wind shear analysis from CIMSS this morning indicates that this maybe heading towards an area of higher shear (20kts) soon:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

but look at all that lower shear right after.

Thunder44 · #326 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:46 am

Scorpion wrote:20 kts isn't nearly enough to destroy it.

No, but it will probably impede it's development today somewhat.

#327 Postby **bvigal** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:47 am

Looks like it's already been impacted by shear, at least the northern portion of convection.

#328 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:49 am

So far there hasn't been any improvement with this system. It could improve down the road, nevertheless. Time will tell.

Thunder44 · #329 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:50 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:9z wind shear analysis from CIMSS this morning indicates that this maybe heading towards an area of higher shear (20kts) soon:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
but look at all that lower shear right after.

Yeah, but it will have to survive that today before it can develop this weekend. 12z map just came out shows even more shear.

Scorpion · #330 Postby **Scorpion** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:50 am

HURAKAN wrote:So far there hasn't been any improvement with this system. It could improve down the road, nevertheless. Time will tell.

As long as it maintains its convection it should be ok.

Dynamic · #331 Postby **Dynamic** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:52 am

If this system reach the 50W with a LLC or at least some organization, we may expect some development after this point.

Scott_inVA · #332 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:53 am

I'm unimpressed with potential for Invest 99L.

FWIW, freebie map from this morning

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com

Air Force Met: ROFL

#333 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:58 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I thought winds needed to be 30 mph for a Tropical System to become a Tropical depression.

No, there is no such requirement. It must have a closed low-level circulation and, generally, convection over/near the center to be upgraded to a depression.

vacanechaser · #334 Postby **vacanechaser** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:00 am

well, it is approaching an area where the heat content is higher than where it just came from... get the shear to relax, and work with the dryier air a bit, it still has a chance.....and the air where it is located is not all that dry either... i have seen this a lot over the past several years in the early stages... just when you think it is starting to lose convection and fall apart, it seems to be taking a breath and begins to re-strengthen... lets see what it looks like tonight... heat content map below..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

#335 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:05 am

Looks like the dust is getting to the system as I expected, but, it should get out of the dust later today.

#336 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:07 am

http://iwave.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/data/h26_latest.gif

Adding to what Jesse posted,here is the 26C depth isotherm graphic.

Extremeweatherguy · #337 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:08 am

cycloneye wrote:http://iwave.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/data/h26_latest.gif

Adding to what Jesse posted,here is the 26C depth isotherm graphic.

I am really afraid about when we have an organized system reach the NW Caribbean!

HurricaneHunter914 · #338 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:09 am

Where are the GFDL, GFS, and the UKMET when you need them.

vacanechaser · #339 Postby **vacanechaser** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:11 am

cycloneye wrote:http://iwave.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/data/h26_latest.gif

Adding to what Jesse posted,here is the 26C depth isotherm graphic.

looks like plenty of fuel ahead for sure.. thanx for that cycloneye... nice link...

Jesse V. Bass III
http;//www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

#340 Postby **OuterBanker** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:11 am

I'm not worried, according to JB the east coast is safe until at least Aug 5 :lol:

99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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