Tropical Depression 3=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[mobilebay]

Is it just me or did Franklin forget he had to do the TWO?

He sure forgot.

No he didn't.
http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tro ... BNT20.KNHC

[TS Zack]

Thanks Mobile...

NHC site isn't updating!

[mobilebay]

Thanks Mobile...

NHC site isn't updating!

I noticed that earlier. I'm interested to see another forecasters opinion besides Franklin. I hope Sterwart is the next on duty. He has been the only one that has been bullish on this system. You can sure tell the difference in the TWO's the last couple of days. To me it seems as though it was painful for Franklin to declare this TD#3. JMHO

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like convection is developing over the LLC. The system is becoming better organize. But there is still shear but with that convection developing maybe it has weaken a little.

[Bailey1777]

Has anyone been able to get the two yet?

[mobilebay]

Has anyone been able to get the two yet?

Yes! http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tro ... BNT20.KNHC

[Bailey1777]

That's it? When will it be more detailed?

[mobilebay]

That's it? When will it be more detailed?

Thats it until another Forecaster comes in.

[southerngale]

That's it? When will it be more detailed?

When there's more info to put into it.

They don't detail TD#3 because they're covering that in the advisories.

[Bailey1777]

OK. Thanks. I guess that's about it for tonight then.

[mobilebay]

OK. Thanks. I guess that's about it for tonight then.

The next public advisory will be out in the nets 25 minutes.

[Weatherfreak000]

My thoughts are this will become Chris. Most definitely. Even though conditions are only marginally favorable for further development given what this system has down I can't imagine it not getting 5 more MPH to it's winds.


Besides the NHC is notorious for fudging intensity forecasts. It's a hard thing to do I admit but they are still notorious for it.

[wayoutfront]

Anyone else notice the title of the 11:00 TD3 Discussion
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0250.shtml



Tropical Storm DELTA Forecast Discussion
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Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 010250
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2006

[Bailey1777]

Do you guys still see this as a building storm looking at it right now or just holding its own? Also exactly where is the center located looking at a sattelite shot?

[stormtruth]

Anyone else notice the title of the 11:00 TD3 Discussion
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0250.shtml



Tropical Storm DELTA Forecast Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WTNT43 KNHC 010250
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2006

Delta. Hmm.. They've lost their marbles at the NHC.

[Grease Monkey]

On TWC even though they still have the 11pm advisories, mentioned they don't expect it to strengthen much. They didn't say that it probably wouldn't strengthen, so I would take that to mean at least a 5mph increase would not be suprising at all.

[Brent]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 010558
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
200 AM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SABA...
ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN/ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAD
REFORMED FARTHER EAST NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.8
WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES...325 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR
NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 6 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...16.5 N...58.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[mobilebay]

Just like I said in the post above. Stewart is more bullish on this system. There is something to this guys and girls.

[Grease Monkey]

Meaning Stewart is a realist?

[Bailey1777]

That's a far cry from what Franklin said. It really seems like this system is beating all the odds. Can you imagine what it might have become in a favorable environment?