Hurricane Ioke thread

[curtadams]

How often is it there's a storm this powerful in the Central Pacific?

Very rarely, it seems. CPHC only lists two Cat 4's http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/ I didn't go through the year-by-year to see if there were more. This might actually already be the strongest ever, depending on the accuracy of the Dot measurements, which were odd. (140 knots with 966 mb?)

[Gorky]

This looks perfect!

[WmE]

This looks perfect!

Ditto!!

[whereverwx]

First visible of the day.

[WmE]

Beauty!

[btangy]

Hurricane John has the title of strongest hurricane in the CPac at 150knots in 1994. 1994 was a very active year for the Central Pacific.

From that year's season summary: "When [JOHN] crossed 155W, sustained winds based on Dvorak intensity analysis were estimated at 150 knots, making JOHN the most intense Hurricane of record in the Central Pacific, beating out EMILIA and GILMA, which were also of extreme intensity near 140 knots over these same waters just a few days or weeks earlier."

The two strongest hurricanes to FORM in the C Pac that I could find is Hurricane Dot (1959) at 130knots (although there is considerable uncertainty if the genesis point was truly in the C Pac or E Pac) and the infamous Hurricane Iniki (1992) which had a maximum intensity of 125knots. Hurricane Keoni (1993) is the strongest hurricane (115 knots) I could find that was in the same region that Ioke is current in, so if Ioke is stronger than that, which it seems to be, then it is a little history in the making. In fact, it is probably as strong or stronger than Iniki based on the latest satellite ADT estimates (130-135knots!).

[CrazyC83]

I'd estimate Ioke is 150mph right now really.

[Canelaw99]

That's a pretty healthy looking storm...wow....

[clfenwi]

6.5 (127 knots from CPHC), 6.0 (115 knots) from AFWA.

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1816 UTC THU AUG 24 2006

HURRICANE IOKE LOCATED AT 18.7N 173.0W AT 24/1730 UTC BASED ON 4 KM
IR AND 2KM VISIBLE RESOLUTION SECTOR IMAGES AND ANIMATION. POSITION
ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM 1 MINUTE MEAN WIND SPEED
127 KT. MOVEMENT ESTIMATED TOWARDS 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS.

T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24 HOURS

REMARKS...WELL DEFINED EYE GIVES EASY CENTRAL LOCATION OF 18.4N TO
18.5N. OPTED TO ROUND DOWNWARD. AN OFF WHITE GRAY SHADE AND A WHITE
SURROUNDING RING SHADE YIELDS DT OF 6.5 (6.0 + .5). PAT AND MET LEFT
BEIND A BIT AT 6.0. FINAL T BASED ON DT. AODT N/A.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TPPZ1 KGWC 241830 COR
A. HURRICANE IOKE (01C)
B. 24/1731Z (67)
C. 18.7N/6
D. 172.9W/9
E. TWO/GOES11
F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS -24/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

05A/ PBO SML EYE/ANMTN. SMALL 25NM DG EYE
SURROUNDED BY A 38NM WHITE BAND GIVING A EYE NUMBER
OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJ GIVING AN UNREP DT OF
6.5. FT BASED ON PT. MET YIELDS 5.5. COR FOR FT.

AODT: N/A

BROWN/WEAVE

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SSD also went 6.5

24/1800 UTC 18.6N 172.9W T6.5/6.5 IOKE

[curtadams]

According to automated Dvorak: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 928.2mb/134.8kt
Would be the lowest pressure ever in the CPAC, and very possibly Cat5 (135 knots = Cat5)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I say 135 knots!

[WmE]

WOHOOOO, CATEGORY 5!!!!!!!!!

[LAwxrgal]

Wow she's a beaut. Perfectly symmetrical and comma-shaped. Good thing she's not threatening land right now. Lucky for the 12 people who had to take refuge on Johnston Island, she came in as a Cat 2 while she was in an EWRC.

[WmE]

Well at least nearly.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Cdo 90 percent perfect
Eye placement 85 percent a little to the west
Eye 95

I would say 140 knots based on this sucker. This kills Daniel he did not have this kind of Cdo.

I took a closer look at this system...

[CrazyC83]

Yeah I'd call in a Recon from Hawaii...

[Cyclenall]

it has to encounter very strong shear before its gets there. Could be down to a TD by then

This will not become a cat 5, sorry

This post was made a few days ago. Derek, you gave this a 0% chance at reaching category 5 strength and I said that it is NOT 0% since things could change. Well, your comment is in great danger of being false.

[WmE]

Yep, i'm curious: what will the CPHC do.

cat4, strong cat4 or cat5.

Probably the first one!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would go with 135-140 knots now....You dont't get much more perfect with that eye in the cdo. But the CPHC will likely keep it as a high 3 or low 4 I would bet. It would not suprize me.

[Cyclenall]

I would go with 135-140 knots now....You dont't get much more perfect with that eye in the cdo. But the CPHC will likely keep it as a high 3 or low 4 I would bet. It would not suprize me.

The NRL has it at 125 knots . Well, that's one of the best looking 125 knot storms I have ever seen! Maybe the CPHC will surprise us with a different strength? One can wish....