Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[KatDaddy]

Absolutely agree about the TWO mention

[Extremeweatherguy]

A reminder of the Carla path:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

[Dean4Storms]

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE AREA IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN
77W-81W. THIS ACTIVITY IS HIGHLY CONTRIBUTED TO UPPER DIFFLUENCE
AT THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN. A SFC
TROUGH OR TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ADDED TO THE 18Z MAP TO REFLECT
WIND SHIFTS IN THE VICINITY SEEN AT THE SFC. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS EXIST FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 77W-84W. THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING VERY LITTLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IN FACT BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION OUTLINED ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE ERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WIDESPREAD DRY STABLE AIR E OF 62W. TRADE
WINDS ARE GENERALLY 15-20 KT ACROSS THE SEA WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W. GFS INDICATES TRADES
INCREASING SLIGHTLY AND EXPANDING W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE TO THE WNW
AT 10-15 KT...WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CNTRL ATLC
INCREASES MOISTURE TO THE ERN ISLANDS LATE TUE.

Looks like we got a low forming with this deep of convection. I don't see how it couldn't in these conditions.

[Sanibel]

Dang, those models are good.


I can't find the surface center of this one. Right now my eye says it is close to Nicaragua and should wipe out over land. However, the main convection is so thick I can't tell if it is hiding some sort of surface feature underneath?

The main thing is this one is close enough to South American moisture and far enough from Atlantic shear to have red-topped IR. Can't tell if the main blob is due to self-generated activity or convergence?

[gatorcane]

Dang, those models are good.


I can't find the surface center of this one. Right now my eye says it is close to Nicaragua and should wipe out over land. However, the main convection is so thick I can't tell if it is hiding some sort of surface feature underneath?

The main thing is this one is close enough to South American moisture and far enough from Atlantic shear to have red-topped IR. Can't tell if the main blob is due to self-generated activity or convergence?

it the blob can persist through the overnight hours I'd say we have our next invest tomorrow AM.

[Rainband]

A reminder of the Carla path:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

Thats spooky

[rockyman]

Shear has really fallen off (just as forecast):

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[tropicsgal05]

Well I hope everyone from Texas to South Florida is prepared just in case this gets in the Gulf.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Shear has really fallen off (just as forecast):

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

It is still encountering a band of 20 knot shear though. However, as it heads NW it should be out of the harmful shear by tomorrow and be in a prime spot for development.

[ronjon]

Not to alarm anyone but there was one storm that formed just north of this area about the same time in August.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at196903.asp

[gatorcane]

Not to alarm anyone but there was one storm that formed just north of this area about the same time in August.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at196903.asp

There are several historic storms that form in this area this time of year not just Camille. It is a an area to watch this time of year.

[Lindaloo]

Could have done without seeing that ronjon!

[Sanibel]

It's obvious the thing to worry about at this point is this one finally breaking the threshold for development and forming. The reason to worry is because it could be forming in an area where it has beaten all the negatives that wiped out the other disturbances to the NE and E. If it did develop it would enter an untapped West Caribbean that is infamous for supporting strong development and maybe then head into the late August primed GOM.

Or it could be yet another deceptive 2006 bust.

[Steve]

SFLWX,

I saw those posts last night and appreciated them.

Extreme,

Some of the prior globals (yesterday's 12z's????) showed a storm heading toward TX/MX then turning north near the coast. I thought it was an odd placement as I don't really recall storms hitting Texas from a southerly direction when the energy was as close to the coast as the said models did.

>>it the blob can persist through the overnight hours I'd say we have our next invest tomorrow AM.

I don't think it's going to persist through the overnight hours. The clouds were pretty cold heading into the 12pm CDT hour. So I think it's going to die off then be replaced by new energy nearer to the center. I'd look more for regeneration in the overnight than persistance.

As always, watch it pulse up and down on color IR for future hints.

Steve

[miamicanes177]

I give this a 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression.

[ronjon]

Not to alarm anyone but there was one storm that formed just north of this area about the same time in August.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at196903.asp

There are several historic storms that form in this area this time of year not just Camille. It is a an area to watch this time of year.

Actually gatorcane, I think of this area as a late season breeding ground for October storms. I'm sure there have been August-September storms forming out of this area too - just can't think of any off the top of my head in August.

[Stormavoider]

1010mb from ship on the southern side of this blob.

SHIP S 1800 12.10 -76.90 209 211 80 11.7 - - - - - 29.83

[Steve]

>>It's obvious the thing to worry about at this point is this one finally breaking the threshold for development and forming.

I'm not so sure. I admittedly haven't studied buoys, surface pressures, and wind reports down in the SW Caribbean, but I don't think the convection represents the feedback required to sustain the hurricane heat engine. I think it's more of a symptom. Of course I could be wrong, but I don't see any thresholds yet. I just see potential.



Steve

[stormchazer]

It would be just lovely if they would move a Floater over the W. Carib. I guess the NHC is waiting to see if the area will persist.

[Stormavoider]

Or they are waiting till the computer goob comes in tomorrow morning.