Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

[Scorpion]

I think the storm looks much better now, and once it gets away from Haiti it can really ramp up.

[Sanibel]

Just went outside. There's a perfect crisp upper High visible over the island with hot sun. Not too humid. Almost no wind.

This is very bad.

[chrisnnavarre]

I think AFM did a good job in explaining a pro met's position, so I won't try to be redundant, but I will say a few things.

We as pro met's take time out of our busy schedules, that often include shiftwork, to contribute to this board. We have no personal gain from this board except for the satisfaction of contributing to it. That is why it bothers me to no end to see a pro met get bashed by somebody over a 'gut feeling' or 'hunch', especially when I see where they live (meaning the hunch usually leads to a storm track to where they live.) I, for the life of me, cannot figure that one out. If you disagree with me, that is fine, just back it up with some data. Have I been wrong? Heck yeah. I have been humbled many times, but I don't need somebody posting away how wrong I was. I can figure that out for myself and learn from it.

Given the data and the position of the storm yesterday, I would not change any of my opinions in hindsight. So an apology is not in order. What has happened is several relocations of the center which have changed the entire ballgame. Don't believe for one second the GFS actually got it right. I think it got darn lucky. It's 12z solution yesterday did not make meteorological sense based on a number of synoptic factors. The GFS also cannot forecast center relocations, so that is why I said it got lucky. Okay, my rant is done with.

Now onto today. I am very interested in seeing today's global output. 12z upper air analysis places a 593dm ridge over the SE U.S. The 500mb height over Miami is 591dm with a east wind. Therefore...there may be some more WNW than NW motion in the next 24 to 48 hours. This will be critical because it will determine how much land interaction there is with Cuba. Just something to watch.

Hey thanks for the insight. I for one am very thankful for the valuable info you all provide to this board. I agree, Cuba is the key to everything in the next 12 to 24 hours. I have a dear friend who is to fly back to Key West tomorrow A.M. He works there and his business down there depends alot on the outcome of this storm. So you see your input is greatly appreciated by this Florida family. By the way, I'm a Navarre, Florida transplant from originally from Florence, Alabama!!! Thanks again from a fellow Alabamian!

[Scorpion]

Just went outside. There's a perfect crisp upper High visible over the island with hot sun. Not too humid. Almost no wind.

This is very bad.

Yes it seems really calm here. Went to the beach yesterday and the ocean looked like a calm lake. There is no wind to speak of. Perhaps the calm before the storm?

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NHC track is on the right hand side of the model guidance. Based on this, if I lived in AL or the FL panhandle I would not let my guard down one bit. Here is the model guidance:

[saints63213]

Just went outside. There's a perfect crisp upper High visible over the island with hot sun. Not too humid. Almost no wind.

This is very bad.

that makes no sense a high pressure would be protecting you.

[storms in NC]

IMHO if it stays on the track it is going it will NOT go across Cuba like they said. It will cross the eastern side of Cube for I think the troff has a little pull on it now. Which will bring it to the southeast of Fla and up the coast and maybe out to sea from there. With each update they keep moveing it to the right. Let's see at 2 if they move it again. Again JMHO.

[Opal storm]

EWG,there's not one model pointing to AL or the panhandle.I'm not saying my guard is down,but it's looking pretty good for us right now considering all the models are well east of us.

[Extremeweatherguy]

EWG,there's not one model pointing to AL or the panhandle.I'm not saying my guard is down,but it's looking pretty good for us right now considering all the models are well east of us.

actually if you look at that image again, quite a few are pointed toward the panhandle. Most are east of Pensacola, but places like Tallahassee don't look as safe.

[Epsilon_Fan]

with the current model tracks it looks like it could come up by my way... hopefully it gets shredded by Cuba's mtns and Florida by then and is just a weak TS

[saints63213]

EWG,there's not one model pointing to AL or the panhandle.I'm not saying my guard is down,but it's looking pretty good for us right now considering all the models are well east of us.

LOL> yesterday morning no one model pointed to where they are now showing.

[Sanibel]

It should be moving under the UPPER High that is clearly apparent over the island. We have a clear blue sky when normally we have tropical haze. Upper High's help hurricanes get stronger by allowing perfect stacking and outflow venting of the upwelling winds. I'm serious, you should see it down here.

[deltadog03]

I am going to try and explain this. The GFS and most models have still got there problems...That much is CLEARLY evident. Now, I just ran the VIS loop for the first time this morning and I see a WNW motion. The problem is that there is still some shear and the center keep bouncing/moving around. The global models can't forecast reformation of the LLC. Now, the RIDGE is firmly implace in the SE evident from the the analysis at 12z. I still think the shortwave is NOT going to have much effect on this.

[BOPPA]

Sanibel you are right - noticed earlier this morning what a clean, bright
blue and crisp sky it was today. Of course, I had no idea exactly why.
Now you have answered "that" question. Keep us updated on what to
expect in our little corner of the world. Thanks....

[Portastorm]

EWG,there's not one model pointing to AL or the panhandle.I'm not saying my guard is down,but it's looking pretty good for us right now considering all the models are well east of us.

Well, the experts are banking a lot on the upper air sampling to be done later today/tonight by NOAA airplanes. The models should reflect the new data and by tomorrow morning we can be a lot more certain I think.

That being said, yeah ... for these model runs to shift so far west again would be almost unheard of, wouldn't it?! And, once again, the Texas coastline is spared. I don't want to hear any more nonsense about "Tx threat" or "Western Gulf threat" ... blah blah blah. I'll believe it when we're in the 3-day NHC cone. Otherwise:

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to me that Ernesto is starting to turn back toward the WNW and this makes sense with the ULL now retreating off to the WSW more rapidly now and I believe he's going to begin riding around the ridge to his north. Also, there will not be any more reformations of the center to the east or ENE now that he's looking more organized to his west with increasing UL outflow in that quadrant. He may just miss the southern coast of eastern Cuba altogether.

[bobbutts]

From the recon points it just looks like Ernesto is stair stepping WNW to NNW. It seems like this is fairly typical with storms and supports not putting too much stock into one particular heading.

http://bobbutts.mine.nu/ernesto.jpg

[Sanibel]

Delta:

That's probably landfall interaction with the steering current screen the mountains of Hispaniola create. I've posted this several times. The mountains of Hispaniola can cause a system under weak steering between ridges and ULL's to wobble.

I would average the track right up the center of the Cuban "boot" on its east end and take it towards the Keys. I had a feeling months ago this was a Keys year and posted on it.

From the recon points it just looks like Ernesto is stair stepping WNW to NNW. It seems like this is fairly typical with storms and supports not putting too much stock into one particular heading.

Exactly Bob - thanks.

[tallywx]

Some notes:

The frantic spin seen on visible tells me this isn't weakening. The storm has pulled in because of northern inflow limitations from the Haitian mountains. It has a very tight windfield. Winds near Jamaica are only 6mph.

The current wobble NW is probably a landfall interaction wobble to keep itself from crashing into Haiti. I would not be surprised to see another radical track change and movement NNW into the clear Windward Passage between Cuba and Haiti. If not, then maybe the ridge has finally taken hold. I doubt it though, because if the ridge were grabbing the storm would be picking up in forward progress (which it isn't).

This small core and tight-eye tendency Ernesto is showing is NOT good news if it tracks clear and untouched into the Florida Straits.

Today will tell us a lot.

Sanibel is correct about the tight wind core. Check out the last surface wind plot from recon. conducted a few hours ago:

[img]ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2006/AL052006/0827/1330/col08deg.png[/img]

That's Charley-esque tightness. If it doesn't get disrupted, it could spin up rapidly.

[shaggy]

I know florida is going to be a much sooner impact but i cant help but think of charley in this situation andn the impacts he had on the east coast.Some of the models continue to show the remnants or he may still be a storm moving up or along the east coast the question is how might he hold together crossing florida and hopefully he impacts florida as a weak system and theres not much left if he gets back in the atlantic