Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[cpdaman]

well if your in south fl pray this thing moves more north west 315 degrees or less(degrees) becaue this could be the difference between 10-12 hours over cuba or 24 hours

[SouthFloridawx]

I think everyone needs to keep in mind that dispite the current organization of Ernesto... People in the State of Florida should begin preparations for a HURRICANE, This is not being forecasted by some dummy sort of people. This is the National Hurricane Center. I live in Delray Beach on the Southeast coast. You better believe last night as I saw the models trend for a So. Fla hit, my girlfriend went out and bought water and food. I will be purchasing the rest of the supplies I need tonight and depending on track and intensity changes I'll be starting to board up my East windows.

Do not take this lightly! If they say a possible cat 2 or 3 could be bearing down on the state I would take heed with great caution and complete your preparations to protect your life and property.

SST'S in the gulf stream are 86-88 degress... well more than enough to fuel Ernesto when he moves off the coast tonight.

Go get ready!

[Evil Jeremy]

if it moves off quickly as well, it might not weaken that much either!

[Thatsmrhurricane]

ILM disco 324AM

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HAS BECOME MUCH MORE INTERESTING OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. WRF KEEPS ERNESTO OVER WATER AND WELL AWAY FROM SHORE
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST. THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE
00Z GFS BOTH SHOW ERNESTO STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH CAROLINA
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US
HELPS PULL ERNESTO SOUTHWESTWARD. WHILE IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT
SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. GIVEN LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO CHANGE THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN
TO UPDATE GRIDS AFFECTED BY LATEST ERNESTO TRACK FORECAST FROM
NHC/TPC WHEN THE 5 AM FORECAST IS ISSUED. WILL HOLD OFF ON CWF
ISSUANCE UNTIL AFTER 5AM.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/displayprod.php ... =ILMAFDILM

Charleston SC disco:

...ERNESTO STILL FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION THU INTO FRI POSSIBLY
AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/displayprod.php ... =CAEAFDCHS

Not good. I'm having flashbacks to 1999.

[Normandy]

http://tinyurl.com/jn9ow

I think the center is somewhat evident on this radar, and what it shows I do not like....if Ernesto keeps moving right of the forecast track he wont spend hardly any time over Cuba.

[storms in NC]

It don't look so good now. I would like to hear what the pro have to say about this.Maybe they will ring in here. Lets hope so.Well I have to take my daught for her hard casts today. As you some know she was in a bad wreck and broke both ankels with pins and screws. So I will be gone most of the day.Maybe when I get back The strorm will be on deaths bed.

[SWFLA_CANE]

http://tinyurl.com/jn9ow

I think the center is somewhat evident on this radar, and what it shows I do not like....if Ernesto keeps moving right of the forecast track he wont spend hardly any time over Cuba.

But if he keeps right of the forecast track the impacts on Fla will be much less if any at all.

[Patrick99]

"If it keeps up, Ernesto MIGHT not see much of Cuba.

The fact that he is making landfall THIS early on Cuba is astounding"

Hehe - fair enough. Well, I suppose I will be getting home early from work today. That's the positive likelihood. On the negative side, I'll have to fill the cooler with ice and put the A/C down to about 60 degrees in anticipation of a late August/early Sept. week in Miami without power

[Normandy]

http://tinyurl.com/jn9ow

I think the center is somewhat evident on this radar, and what it shows I do not like....if Ernesto keeps moving right of the forecast track he wont spend hardly any time over Cuba.

But if he keeps right of the forecast track the impacts on Fla will be much less if any at all.

thats also very possible...

[Thatsmrhurricane]

The front may move the storm, along with H pres. back to the W later in the forecast period.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /late1.png

You can see this in the models.

[storms in NC]

FXUS62 KILM 280722 RRA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
324 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODEST HEIGHT
RISES...CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL MAKE FOR A HOTTER AND MORE HUMID DAY TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED THEM.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...OTHERWISE A
DRY DAY. RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN WITH APPROACH OF NEXT FRONT ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE SAME BUT POPS WILL INCREASE TO
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FRONT APPROACHES.
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AS FRONT SETTLES IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...ALL DEPENDS ON TRACK OF
ERNEST AND THUS ON THE LATEST FROM TPC. FOR NOW HAVE UPPED POPS ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. MAKING NO
OTHER MAJOR CHANGES UNTIL THE LATEST OFFICIAL GUIDANCE ON ERNESTO

This one Morehead City


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
438 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SE
UNTIED STATES WILL KEEP EASTERN NC PRIMARILY DRY...WARM AND HUMID
THROUGH TUE. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY AND AREA WIDE TUE AFTERNOON DUE
TO THE VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO OVER COME THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGING ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

ON WED THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS TO THE EAST AS HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH A CENTRAL US UPPER LOW/TROUGH SPREAD EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SETTLE SE ACROSS
VA/NC. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...AND PROXIMITY TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTAB/LIFT WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXPECTED LATE TUE NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH WED NIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...FORECAST COMPLICATED
BY TRACK OF REMNANTS OF ERNESTO. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG OR
JUST OFF THE NC COAST THU-FRI. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/CMC/UKMET
IS TO TAKE THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NC COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFDL IS A LEFT OUTLIER IN TAKING THE STORM
WEST OF I95 BUT HAS TRENDED EAST IN THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE GFS
STALLS THE LOW VCNTY OF NC THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS STRONG
UPPER CONFLUENCE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ANCHORS A
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH BLOCKS THE LOW FROM MOVING NE
AWAY FROM THE REGION. NOT CONFIDENT OF THIS BUT I WILL INCREASE
POPS THU/FRI AND CONTINUE THEM INTO SAT IN LINE WITH THE NHC TRACK.

&&
You have to different ones.

[Nimbus]

The best track for land interaction would have been down Cuba leaving only a short time over the Florida straits for development.

Unfortunately short term there appears to be an ULL dropping south that may kick the storm north over just the tip of cuba.

Once the ridge takes over steering the track should trend back toward the northwest.

IF the trough arrives before Ernesto makes landfall or he recurves earlier than expected we could get lucky.

Most of us on the west coast of Florida are probably breathing a sigh of relief this morning, but its still not over. tracks along the north coast of Cuba have bred some real nasty canes historically.

[cinlfla]

http://tinyurl.com/jn9ow

I think the center is somewhat evident on this radar, and what it shows I do not like....if Ernesto keeps moving right of the forecast track he wont spend hardly any time over Cuba.

Looks like it already over land in Cuba

[Evil Jeremy]

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN IF ERNESTO DOES NOT STRENGTHEN
BACK TO A HURRICANE BEFORE AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA, THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH THE
RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. HISTORICALLY, MANY WEAKER TROPICAL STORMS AND
DEPRESSIONS AFFECTING MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE PRODUCED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. AN EXAMPLE OF THIS WAS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2000
THAT PRODUCED EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH MORE THAN 15 INCHES
OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES.


were gota get battered one way or another.

[gtsmith]

Right now I would't worry about Ernesto too much. [sic] it appears most likely this system should be no more than a cat 1 in South Florida, even if some re-strengthening does happen over the open waters north of Cuba. A heavy rain maker is the best bet at this point.........

I understand you may be trying to calm folks down, but to say that people in SFl should not "worry" about a possible Cat 1 storm is just folly. And to state that a Cat 1 storm is just "a heavy rain maker" is absurd. The damage done here from Wilma last year, which officially was a cat 1, was unbelievable. I lived through that one and I can tell you I do not want to experience anything near that ever again...it was much more than a "rain maker".

[Sanibel]

I believe you are totally misreading what this system is doing.

1) It is headed right for the spine of Cuba at low forward speed. This means it could very well tear up over Cuba and dissipate.

2) Two nights ago there was a firm boundary between the tropical airmass Ernesto formed within and a dry weather airmass to the west. Ever since Ernesto entered the dry side of the divide he has been weak with dry convection.

I think 2006 has gotten another one. Still too early to tell.

[Hurrilurker]

The worst case is if it cuts quickly across Cuba moving north, then turns back westish once in open water to give it more time to strengthen. It certainly looks like it's going north but the IR can be deceiving with regards to motion.

[HURAKAN]

[tgenius]

I believe you are totally misreading what this system is doing.

1) It is headed right for the spine of Cuba at low forward speed. This means it could very well tear up over Cuba and dissipate.

2) Two nights ago there was a firm boundary between the tropical airmass Ernesto formed within and a dry weather airmass to the west. Ever since Ernesto entered the dry side of the divide he has been weak with dry convection.

I think 2006 has gotten another one. Still too early to tell.

I pray your right, though I think it may skirt Cuba, and it sped up forward speed.

[Sanibel]

Looks like toast over Cuba (Good if you don't like being wrecked by hurricanes).

But, as we all know, these things can do just about anything.