TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

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CronkPSU
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#321 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:15 am

does not seem to be gaining any momentum at all
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#322 Postby gtalum » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:16 am

So it looks liek the center really is ~.25 degrees east of where the NHC put it. Will that likely push the forecast track back to the east at 5 pm?
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#323 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:16 am

gt-depends on where it moves over the next 6 hours :-)
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#324 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:17 am

Lol I wonder how much higher can the pressure get.
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#325 Postby gtalum » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:17 am

CronkPSU wrote:gt-depends on where it moves over the next 6 hours


Yeah, you're right. I'm just being optimistic. :lol:
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#326 Postby Bgator » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:17 am

How is this thing gettign higher pressure...
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#327 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:18 am

Dvorak improving by the minute - but the forward speed is too fast to really deepen.

Good rotor shape developing.

Good thing this didn't stay just offshore Cuba yesterday. Cuba saved Florida.
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#328 Postby tampastorm » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:19 am

Sanibel wrote:At 4am it was headed right for the west coast. We said to each other "this would have to take a screeching right turn to miss us". Sure enough it is turning right.


You really see that much of a turn right? Maybe slightly but not a "sharp" turn, or am I just completely not seeing right?
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#329 Postby storms in NC » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:20 am

from this you can see that from the west is really moving faster to push the storm more to the north. Just a guess. Some help here would be nice. Trying to see whole Pic of this not just the storm itself.

[img=http://img244.imageshack.us/img244/8199/e1wx3.th.jpg]
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#330 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:21 am

last frame kinda cool. 4 points of convection...N S E and W
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
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#331 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:22 am

http://tinyurl.com/oe5xx

Here come the rain bands!!
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tgenius
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#332 Postby tgenius » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:23 am

Ernie sure looks like he is getting that buzzsaw look....
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#333 Postby Toadstool » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:26 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:http://tinyurl.com/oe5xx

Here come the rain bands!!


Wow, yep... coming quick, next couple hours for sure...!
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#334 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:31 am

It has that snap together rotor shape but is whipping along too fast to really pull it all in.

The system is "wedged" between synoptics and can't freely spin up.
Last edited by Sanibel on Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#335 Postby dwg71 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:33 am

Ernie is a very weak TS and I dont expect anybody to have any real problems with him. We have dodged a bullet with Ernie and hope we keep dodging them. Ernie was a hurricane for ony a very short time.
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#336 Postby ronjon » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:34 am

Much better SAT presentation than 12 hrs ago - getting the buzzsaw look - mean

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12
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#337 Postby fox13weather » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:34 am

Sanibel wrote:It has that snap together rotor shape but is whipping along to fast to really pull it all in.

The system is "wedged" between synoptics and can't freely spin up.


the pressure is a 1008 mb. that is all we need to know right now.
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#338 Postby Aquawind » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:36 am

fox13weather wrote:
Sanibel wrote:It has that snap together rotor shape but is whipping along to fast to really pull it all in.

The system is "wedged" between synoptics and can't freely spin up.


the pressure is a 1008 mb. that is all we need to know right now.


Badda Bing! :D
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#339 Postby tallywx » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:37 am

If the pressure rises any more, it'll become an area of high pressure and start spinning the other way :lol:
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tgenius
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#340 Postby tgenius » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:38 am

Here's the bottom line:Weather is well East of COC, so If it goes where it says or even slightly west, we WILL get some nasty rain and wind in Miami, probably more than where the COC ends up.
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