TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[westmoon]

Seams he is getting wider but thats about all he is doing.

[windnrain]

With a storm that has no real center, or multiple centers, what is the point that it stops strengthening?

[SouthFloridawx]

IMO looking at recon data, satelite presentation and radar... it is likely that the intensity will not be upped and the Hurricane watches will be dropped. Intensity will be max before landfall of 50KTS maximum. The system looks like it is fairly disorganized and likely will only be mostly a rain event with some localized areas of high winds and possible tornadoes.

[wxman57]

With a storm that has no real center, or multiple centers, what is the point that it stops strengthening?

That would be earlier today. Note that the most recent recon reports show FL winds lower than that one 49kt wind at 1627Z. Ernesto's winds are lower than this morning, for the most part. The core of squalls that was near the center is gone.

[feederband]

I'd have to agree, that's a pretty significant shift to the west. Depending on how much longer this westward trend persists, the landfall location could be changed all the way from Homestead to my area.

k e v i n . c h o
naples, fl

And stay over water longer...

[deltadog03]

IMO, let me know if ya agree wxman...IF*** this stayed on current heading, according to radar, could go either right over or just north of key west?

[x-y-no]

Yeah, at this point it looks real doubtful to make it to the forecast 55kts. Ernesto is running out of room.

Looks like we're in for a pretty minor event here. Hopefully, the same is true for South Carolina in a couple of days.

[george_r_1961]

I didnt want to start a new thread over this but i am VERY concerned about a MAJOR rain event for GA up into PA. With the system interacting with the front im getting just a little worried up here in SE VA

[mettski]

looks like its falling apart big time.

[Wx_Warrior]

This would be great news for all!

[MiamiensisWx]

Looks like some mid-level drier air intrusion from the eastern Gulf and west-southwestern Atlantic may be contributing to the waning of convective organization and core organization. It may well get some intermittent bursts of convection before landfall, though, with the synoptics favoring that.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

Looks better than this morning IMO.

[Solaris]

20z c-man: pressure falling shifts more in direction of long key

[westmoon]

mettski,

looks like its falling apart big time.

Lets hope so I for one would like to be able to keep my homeowners Insurance!

[Zackiedawg]

I didnt want to start a new thread over this but i am VERY concerned about a MAJOR rain event for GA up into PA. With the system interacting with the front im getting just a little worried up here in SE VA

I'd keep a close eye on it if I were you, George. I think South Florida, at least most of the east coast, has lessened the chance not only for a wind event, but even for a significant rain event. Things look fairly optimistic for us (other than those on the southern tip and southwestern corner of Florida who are alreaedy getting lots of moisture).

But this messy bundle of tropical waste could end up doing what many have done and parking its remains over GA/SC/NC/VA, and dumping whatever rain it has left on the mountain downslopes.

Hopefully this thing will keep sucking in dry air and dissipate even further to reduce the risk for those up north.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

With a storm that has no real center, or multiple centers, what is the point that it stops strengthening?

That would be earlier today. Note that the most recent recon reports show FL winds lower than that one 49kt wind at 1627Z. Ernesto's winds are lower than this morning, for the most part. The core of squalls that was near the center is gone.

True. I just looked at the Recon reports.

[rjgator]

60 MPH gust reported on CMAN station in Long Key. About 15 miles from Marathon.

[Aquawind]

No real tornado threat mentioned yet..

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/

[Lifesgud2]

60 MPH gust reported on CMAN station in Long Key. About 15 miles from Marathon.

Wow...

[stormtruth]

Looks like some convection forming around a possible center South of Key Largo.
http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/radar/s ... &type=loop