TD Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #8

[gatorcane]

Looks to me based on radar that he has decided to jump to near Key Largo and is just spinning away and going nowhere - maybe just drifting NNE (yes I did say E)...go figure....

I guess he wanted to stop off at John Pennekamp to look at some of the tropical fish...

[rainydaze]

Must be enjoying the beautiful florida keys. I wish I were down there if he weren't there

Well they do say everything is more laid back in the Keys...lol!

[gatorcane]

Actually guys it is very intersting he seems to be drifting a bit E of N....am I seeing something...check it out:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[tgenius]

I'm just wondering if Dade is going to be in the clear the entire night, lol. I even opened my shutters, heh

[gatorcane]

Lots of tropical rains streaming into South Palm Beach right now here in Delray/Boca

[WxGuy1]

Anyone, what is baroclinic support ???

In layman's terms -- when you hear baroclinc support, think temperature gradient or front. Baroclinic instability, in contrast to barotropic instability (tropical cyclones are barotropic or equivalent barotropic systems) results from horiztonal temperature gradients. Extratropical cyclones (i.e. mid-latitude lows) derive their "energy" from baroclinicity.

[gatorcane]

The E drift is significant, if he can manage to go up the east coast just barely offshore - I doubt it would happen but you never know with Ernesto.

[MBismyPlayground]

Thank You WXguy1
I THINK I understand it kind of.

[THead]

The E drift is significant, if he can manage to go up the east coast just barely offshore - I doubt it would happen but you never know with Ernesto.

Still looking NNW to me judging by this loop. Looks like the COC is right near the "OCR" label.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radamx.html

[craptacular]

FYI, the last four recon vortex fixes:

23:28 24'45"N 80'24"W
01:24 24'52"N 80'28"W
02:30 24'50"N 80'29"W
03:32 24'58"N 80'39"W

[gatorcane]

slowly moving NNW it looks like....very, very slowly....like crawling through the everglades soon it looks like.

[LeeJet]

How the heck do tropical storm winds expand 105 miles from the center when nobody is getting them? Can somebody explain this enigma?

The centre of all tropical cyclones is calm or nearly so. Winds are due to the pressure gradient between the low in the centre and surrounding higher pressures. In a hurricane these usually concentrate in a ring or 'donut' around the centre. In weaker systems the low in the centre is not well defined and strongest winds are usually offset a considerable distance away in the direction of highest pressure.

Yes, but the point is that there are no tropical storm force winds, so how can it expand 105 miles from the center?

[craptacular]

Recon just found a 49kt flight-level wind.

[tgenius]

Now I'm really confused... lol

[THead]

FYI, the last four recon vortex fixes:

23:28 24'45"N 80'24"W
01:24 24'52"N 80'28"W
02:30 24'50"N 80'29"W
03:32 24'58"N 80'39"W

Thanks for the FYI. So from the first to the last fix, almost exactly NW. 13" N and 15" W.

[Brent]

CNN and FNC both did about a 2-minute live update at the top of the hour, both with a live report. Wasn't much going on.

[gatorcane]

interesting Ernesto is still alive with 49K winds now being found...

[Brent]

interesting Ernesto is still alive with 49K winds now being found...

What wind?

[Rainband]

I think it was 4+9

[gatorcane]

lol I'm actually seeing gusts up to about 35mph right now.....go figure...