TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

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artist
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#321 Postby artist » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:05 pm

Does anyone know if the tarps hold just from rain? Or does too much rain do them in as well?
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#322 Postby Thatsmrhurricane » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:05 pm

I believe the max sustained winds from Ophelia recorded at Kure beach was around 49mph. We barely were scraped by the W side of the storms center. The above wind field map is indicating that IF the storm hits the Cape region we will experience the same or worse conditions than Ophelia.
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#323 Postby NFLDART » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:10 pm

Artist it depends on how taut the tarps are attached. If done properly they should hold without problem.
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#324 Postby mettski » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:10 pm

what would happen if it went out into the atlantic again ?
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#325 Postby NFLDART » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:11 pm

mettski wrote:what would happen if it went out into the atlantic again ?


probably just continue to intensify until it hit cooler water or interacted with the front.
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#326 Postby marcane_1973 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:13 pm

Looks like the Ernesto might have hit his peak. It seems the center does not look as good as it did a couple of hours ago. Who knows maybe Ernesto will pull it off and become a 75 mph Hurricane before landfall this evening.
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#327 Postby NFLDART » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:14 pm

Only time will tell
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#328 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:15 pm

Looks like landfall around Cape Fear.
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#329 Postby jasons2k » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:20 pm

It looks like Cape Fear to me as well, maybe even east of there (which would throw it off a lot east since the coast curves) - but the storm looks like it has a more easterly component to it. It's definitely moving east of NHC the points I have pasted on GR3. Also looks like it won't make it to hurr. strength to me either.
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#330 Postby marcane_1973 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:21 pm

Cape Fear seems to attract storms. By the way guys Caswell Beach is already starting to get some beach erosion and street flooding. Looks like that area could be in trouble.
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#331 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:21 pm

Looks to be moving a little more NE. Could even just miss Cape Fear.
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#332 Postby jpigott » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:22 pm

jschlitz wrote:It looks like Cape Fear to me as well, maybe even east of there (which would throw it off a lot east since the coast curves) - but the storm looks like it has a more easterly component to it. It's definitely moving east of NHC the points I have pasted on GR3. Also looks like it won't make it to hurr. strength to me either.


yea, i don't think its going to make hurricane strenght either, the radar presentation doesn't look as good as it did earlier in the afternoon
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#333 Postby Thatsmrhurricane » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:23 pm

Do you guys want me to go to the beach every once in awhile and report back? :wink:

PS-That, I hope, is the last smiely I will use.
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#334 Postby marcane_1973 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:23 pm

I heard a forecaster earlier say this was a Cape Hatteras storm. Looks like that could verify????
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#335 Postby Normandy » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:23 pm

Cape Fear?

No way it goes that east
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#336 Postby marcane_1973 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:26 pm

Normandy wrote:Cape Fear?

No way it goes that east
The storm is basically moving NE at the moment so the outer banks or slightly west of there looks more like a landfall now.
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#337 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:26 pm

Close.
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#338 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:27 pm

marcane_1973 wrote:
Normandy wrote:Cape Fear?

No way it goes that east
The storm is basically moving NE at the moment so the outer banks or slightly west of there looks more like a landfall now.
Your right a little more NE. Easy to see that on radar.
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#339 Postby Normandy » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:27 pm

I see it moving N or slightly easy of N on radar
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#340 Postby marcane_1973 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:28 pm

jpigott wrote:
jschlitz wrote:It looks like Cape Fear to me as well, maybe even east of there (which would throw it off a lot east since the coast curves) - but the storm looks like it has a more easterly component to it. It's definitely moving east of NHC the points I have pasted on GR3. Also looks like it won't make it to hurr. strength to me either.


yea, i don't think its going to make hurricane strenght either, the radar presentation doesn't look as good as it did earlier in the afternoon
Yep the center does not look nearly as good a couple of hours ago.
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