TD #6 Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#321 Postby **skysummit** » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:23 pm

rnbaida wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:It's going through the diurnal minimum so it's very normal for this to happen. Still, 90L has a great outflow and circulation to it.
right that is what i thought, but the outflow does look very good. I think we should have a TD by 5pm.... Anyone else think so too?

Count me in! I say 95% chance of it.

#322 Postby **ALhurricane** » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:24 pm

wxman57 wrote:
ALhurricane wrote:The GFS and ECMWF have been persistent in forecasting a trough over the central and eastern U.S. for the next 7 to 10 days. I see very little way that Florence-to-be threatens the U.S. at all. This one will likely remain out to sea.

Would that be the same GFS and ECMWF that forecast the strong ridge over Florida that would certainly prevent Ernesto from heading in that direction?

I do notice a westward trend in the GFS, moving Florence closer to the east U.S. Coast, so I'm just a LITTLE more concerned that it could become a threat to the Mid Atlantic Coast.

LOL, points VERY well taken. I have probably jinxed the east coast now. :lol:

Do notice that I used probability language instead of categorical language.

I do think Florence will have many obstacles to clear before becoming an east coast threat. The latest GFS ensembles show enough of a weakness off the east coast to turn it out to sea. However, I will say as we head into 'transition' time with change of the seasons coming up, there will be more model volatility in the medium to long range guidance. By no means do I suggest not keeping an eye on this one. Trust me, Ernesto has humbled this forecaster.

rnbaida · #323 Postby **rnbaida** » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:24 pm

Shear Tendency

#324 Postby **skysummit** » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:28 pm

rnbaida wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF]Shear Tendency

It's more in the fashion of an anticyclone though thus giving it that nice outflow look. By the way, look what's building over the islands...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

clfenwi · #325 Postby **clfenwi** » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:29 pm

I haven't seen the text yet, but there's apparently been a Tropical Cyclone Formation alert released... TCFA graphic

WmE · #326 Postby **WmE** » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:30 pm

06L.NONAME according to NRL!!

rnbaida · #327 Postby **rnbaida** » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:30 pm

clfenwi wrote:I haven't seen the text yet, but there's apparently been a Tropical Cyclone Formation alert released... TCFA graphic

COULD IT BE TD6?

rnbaida · #328 Postby **rnbaida** » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:31 pm

WmE wrote:06L.NONAME according to NRL!!

is still have invest 90L

WindRunner · #329 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:31 pm

Not by the models, though I have another place to check. NRL is showing 06L, though.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902006) ON 20060903 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060903 1800 060904 0600 060904 1800 060905 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.2N 39.9W 16.0N 41.5W 17.5N 43.0W 18.7N 44.5W
BAMM 14.2N 39.9W 16.0N 41.7W 17.5N 43.4W 18.5N 45.4W
A98E 14.2N 39.9W 15.5N 41.9W 16.6N 44.0W 17.7N 46.2W
LBAR 14.2N 39.9W 16.0N 41.7W 18.0N 43.1W 19.9N 44.6W
SHIP 30KTS 40KTS 49KTS 56KTS
DSHP 30KTS 40KTS 49KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060905 1800 060906 1800 060907 1800 060908 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.8N 46.0W 21.3N 49.2W 21.7N 53.4W 21.3N 58.5W
BAMM 19.3N 47.3W 19.9N 51.0W 20.1N 55.3W 19.6N 59.4W
A98E 18.7N 48.6W 20.2N 54.0W 20.9N 59.9W 21.4N 65.6W
LBAR 21.8N 45.8W 25.3N 48.0W 27.4N 52.1W 28.3N 56.1W
SHIP 62KTS 70KTS 74KTS 79KTS
DSHP 62KTS 70KTS 74KTS 79KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 39.9W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 37.8W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 36.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

rnbaida · #330 Postby **rnbaida** » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:32 pm

WindRunner wrote:Not by the models, though I have another place to check. NRL is showing 06L, though.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902006) ON 20060903 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060903 1800 060904 0600 060904 1800 060905 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.2N 39.9W 16.0N 41.5W 17.5N 43.0W 18.7N 44.5W
BAMM 14.2N 39.9W 16.0N 41.7W 17.5N 43.4W 18.5N 45.4W
A98E 14.2N 39.9W 15.5N 41.9W 16.6N 44.0W 17.7N 46.2W
LBAR 14.2N 39.9W 16.0N 41.7W 18.0N 43.1W 19.9N 44.6W
SHIP 30KTS 40KTS 49KTS 56KTS
DSHP 30KTS 40KTS 49KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060905 1800 060906 1800 060907 1800 060908 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.8N 46.0W 21.3N 49.2W 21.7N 53.4W 21.3N 58.5W
BAMM 19.3N 47.3W 19.9N 51.0W 20.1N 55.3W 19.6N 59.4W
A98E 18.7N 48.6W 20.2N 54.0W 20.9N 59.9W 21.4N 65.6W
LBAR 21.8N 45.8W 25.3N 48.0W 27.4N 52.1W 28.3N 56.1W
SHIP 62KTS 70KTS 74KTS 79KTS
DSHP 62KTS 70KTS 74KTS 79KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 39.9W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 37.8W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 36.0W
[b] WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
[/b]

WNDCUR shows 30kts

Thunder44 · #331 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:32 pm

rnbaida wrote:
WmE wrote:06L.NONAME according to NRL!!
is still have invest 90L

Refresh your page:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

#332 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:33 pm

I would better wait for the official word from NHC rather than go with the noname thing or the models header saying TD.

WindRunner · #333 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:33 pm

Well, NHC did send the message out to renumber 90L to 06L.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCFSVR1
invest_RENUMBER_al902006_al062006.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200609031827
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 06, 2006, DB, O, 2006090218, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL062006
AL, 06, 2006090200, , BEST, 0, 113N, 330W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2006090206, , BEST, 0, 114N, 340W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2006090212, , BEST, 0, 115N, 350W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2006090218, , BEST, 0, 116N, 360W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2006090300, , BEST, 0, 121N, 369W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 06, 2006090306, , BEST, 0, 127N, 378W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 175, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 06, 2006090312, , BEST, 0, 135N, 388W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 175, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 06, 2006090318, , BEST, 0, 142N, 399W, 30, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 175, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

HurricaneHunter914 · #334 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:33 pm

ITS TD NUMBER SIX!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Yes.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Thunder44 · #335 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:34 pm

354
WHXX01 KWBC 031829
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE SIX (AL062006) ON 20060903 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060903 1800 060904 0600 060904 1800 060905 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.2N 39.9W 16.0N 41.5W 17.5N 43.0W 18.7N 44.5W
BAMM 14.2N 39.9W 16.0N 41.7W 17.5N 43.4W 18.5N 45.4W
A98E 14.2N 39.9W 15.5N 41.9W 16.6N 44.0W 17.7N 46.2W
LBAR 14.2N 39.9W 16.0N 41.7W 18.0N 43.1W 19.9N 44.6W
SHIP 30KTS 40KTS 49KTS 56KTS
DSHP 30KTS 40KTS 49KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060905 1800 060906 1800 060907 1800 060908 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.8N 46.0W 21.3N 49.2W 21.7N 53.4W 21.3N 58.5W
BAMM 19.3N 47.3W 19.9N 51.0W 20.1N 55.3W 19.6N 59.4W
A98E 18.7N 48.6W 20.2N 54.0W 20.9N 59.9W 21.4N 65.6W
LBAR 21.8N 45.8W 25.3N 48.0W 27.4N 52.1W 28.3N 56.1W
SHIP 62KTS 70KTS 74KTS 79KTS
DSHP 62KTS 70KTS 74KTS 79KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 39.9W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 37.8W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 36.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

New Run out again says "Disturbance Six" here.

HurricaneHunter914 · #336 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:35 pm

Now can we change the title?

WindRunner · #337 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:35 pm

Haha . . . naming error on the models. So that's as close to official as we can get for the next couple of hours . . . but yes, as always we wait.

#338 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:36 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:ITS TD NUMBER SIX!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Yes.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Again I rather wait for the official word from NHC in the form of a special Tropical Disturbance Statement or wait until 5 PM to see if advisories are iniciated..

superfly · #339 Postby **superfly** » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:36 pm

It's sitting in an area of low shear right now but there is massive shear if it moves north or south.

#340 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:37 pm

No fishing for this one.

TD #6 Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Who is online