TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

[wxman57]

a reformation to the osuth can change alot of things!

Actually, the discussion is over a very tiny shift as the center wraps up. The center will wobble around a good bit as a storm begins to spin-up. Won't change anything with respect to the track, but it could be a signal that an intensification phase is well underway.

[Bailey1777]

If WXMAN57 says the center is up around 24N why is everybody questioning it?

[CrazyC83]

Conclusion: eyewall trying to form, covered by cirrus clouds

[wxman57]

If WXMAN57 says the center is up around 24N why is everybody questioning it?

It was up around 24N a few hours ago, but it may be wobbling around as the storm spins up. Could be down near 23.7-23.8N now. That's not a movement just a wobble as spiral bands wrap in. It's Bermuda-bound, not Florida-bound.

[storms in NC]

a reformation to the osuth can change alot of things!

Yeah more to the right of Bremuda

[Hyperstorm]

Cloud pattern is starting to stretch northward. Signs of a northward turn beginning sooner than you think.

Folks, there is no going back...

[storms in NC]

We have more people on here when there is nothing but a wave out there. What happen to them? On the beaches of Fla?

[Stormavoider]

We have more people on here when there is nothing but a wave out there. What happen to them? On the beaches of Fla?

Enjoy it while you can.

[Bailey1777]

It's sad because so many say they just want to see the beauty of a storm but as soon as the mainland is out of it's sights there is no intrest. I look forward to the satellite shots and hopefully a curve now.

[Trugunzn]

Cloud pattern is starting to stretch northward. Signs of a northward turn beginning sooner than you think.

Folks, there is no going back...

Or it could be intensifying and expanding

[wxman57]

Here's a recent satellite. I've identified a couple of possible low centers. The one near 23.9N/61.1W may be the more likely of the two. The circle to the north near 24.4N/61.2W is an extrapolation of the 21Z NHC position. It's possible that there's an LLC beneath the circle to the north but a stronger MLC associated with the southern circle.

[Bailey1777]

That is a sweet shot!

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Yeah I'll have to be honest. I've been looking at the loop and I have trouble thinking the center is now NE of the convection. That and the N motion might be just expansion. Does not mean a thing about track except to take note.

[wxman57]

Cloud pattern is starting to stretch northward. Signs of a northward turn beginning sooner than you think.

Folks, there is no going back...

The cirrus "arrow" pointing toward the northwest is a signal pointing toward where the storm will move at least in the short term (12-24hrs). Don't know what you mean by "there is no going back...". Going back where? Florence is following the forecast path.

[cinlfla]

I just looked at the loop and she does look to have stopped if nothing else maybe drifting. She is getting ready to make her turn.

[Hyperstorm]

Cloud pattern is starting to stretch northward. Signs of a northward turn beginning sooner than you think.

Folks, there is no going back...

The cirrus "arrow" pointing toward the northwest is a signal pointing toward where the storm will move at least in the short term (12-24hrs). Don't know what you mean by "there is no going back...". Going back where? Florence is following the forecast path.

That's exactly what I meant, Chris. The storm is ready to begin moving poleward soon...thus following the anticipated storm track. You know that those cirrus clouds indicate the pattern is setting up for that.

The last comment was directed toward those that think the storm is plowing through a deep trough. Once it begins moving northward, there is no going back (no continued motion toward the west).

Very cold cloud tops seen on imagery...strengthening is likely underway...

[windycity]

I am still amazed how huge Flos windfield is!!! I speak for every Floridian i know, we ARE thanking God for the ridge!! Seriously, this season could end up for having the largest , or close to it, atlantic hurricane!! If we can have that, without people dying, wont this season end up great!!! Hardly a dud, my friends!!

[CrazyC83]

It's creeping up there:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 992.6mb/ 57.0kt

[Hyperstorm]

Here's a recent satellite. I've identified a couple of possible low centers. The one near 23.9N/61.1W may be the more likely of the two. The circle to the north near 24.4N/61.2W is an extrapolation of the 21Z NHC position. It's possible that there's an LLC beneath the circle to the north but a stronger MLC associated with the southern circle.

Latest image that just came out indicate the center becoming better defined. The -80*C cloud tops that have just re-fired are gyring northward and that's SOUTH of the advisory center. If that continues, wouldn't be surprised to see a reposition of the center just southwest. Earlier this evening, this center wasn't as apparent as it is now. Storm is really deepening at this time.

[CrazyC83]

Here's a recent satellite. I've identified a couple of possible low centers. The one near 23.9N/61.1W may be the more likely of the two. The circle to the north near 24.4N/61.2W is an extrapolation of the 21Z NHC position. It's possible that there's an LLC beneath the circle to the north but a stronger MLC associated with the southern circle.

Latest image that just came out indicate the center becoming better defined. The -80*C cloud tops that have just re-fired are gyring northward and that's SOUTH of the advisory center. If that continues, wouldn't be surprised to see a reposition of the center just southwest. Earlier this evening, this center wasn't as apparent as it is now. Storm is really deepening at this time.

I think Recon will find Hurricane Florence...