Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Evil Jeremy]

Oh my 18z GFSat 65 W with an apparant WNW motion at end run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

how many hours away is that?

[caneman]

144 hours.

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 172330
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE HELENE 08L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.9 49.0 310./ 8.0
6 21.4 49.4 323./ 5.8
12 22.0 49.8 323./ 7.5
18 22.5 50.5 310./ 8.3
24 22.9 51.1 303./ 6.7
30 23.2 51.7 294./ 6.1
36 23.2 52.4 268./ 6.3
42 23.4 53.2 285./ 7.6
48 23.6 54.2 282./ 9.2
54 23.8 55.0 282./ 7.4
60 24.2 56.0 290./10.2
66 24.8 57.0 304./10.7
72 25.5 57.7 311./ 9.5
78 26.4 58.3 329./10.8
84 27.5 59.1 322./13.0
90 28.8 59.7 336./14.4
96 30.1 60.0 346./13.1
102 31.5 59.9 5./13.9
108 32.9 59.7 9./14.0
114 34.4 59.2 16./15.3
120 35.6 58.8 20./13.0
126 36.4 58.3 28./ 8.7

18z GFDL recurves at 60w.

[senorpepr]

They did

they sent in a noaa research plane. We need to have recon in the system most of the time....

Do you have the money and the manpower to do that? You should be thankful for what we have, but that sort of coverage is likely to never happen.

[sma10]

They did

they sent in a noaa research plane. We need to have recon in the system most of the time....

Do you have the money and the manpower to do that? You should be thankful for what we have, but that sort of coverage is likely to never happen.

Not only that, but if Helene follows the GFDL/Euro forecast track, be prepared to have ZERO hurricane hunter missions into Helene.

[Scorpion]

So we now have 3 models that want to take it west: GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET.

[WeatherTracker]

So we now have 3 models that want to take it west: GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET.

yeah...3 highly reliable models.

[trugunz]

The WRF takes this thing pretty far west

[cycloneye]

18z NAM Loop

This model goes west.

[CronkPSU]

They did

they sent in a noaa research plane. We need to have recon in the system most of the time....

Do you have the money and the manpower to do that? You should be thankful for what we have, but that sort of coverage is likely to never happen.

the US government certainly does....we are talking what, 4 or 5 fully manned crews and planes for maybe a week or so??? think of our the training runs our military does everyday, the cost of running it is astronomically small compared to those everyday events

[sma10]

So we now have 3 models that want to take it west: GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET.

yeah...3 highly reliable models.

True. But the models that recurve the storm are also HIGHLY reliable models. Interesting, isn't it?

[Brent]

So we now have 3 models that want to take it west: GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET.

yeah...3 highly reliable models.

True. But the models that recurve the storm are also HIGHLY reliable models. Interesting, isn't it?

Yeah, but of course that's ignored.

[sma10]

They did

they sent in a noaa research plane. We need to have recon in the system most of the time....

Do you have the money and the manpower to do that? You should be thankful for what we have, but that sort of coverage is likely to never happen.

the US government certainly does....we are talking what, 4 or 5 fully manned crews and planes for maybe a week or so??? think of our the training runs our military does everyday, the cost of running it is astronomically small compared to those everyday events

Yes, and when a storm shows a threat to land the NHC does send crews in for long shifts. But there's hardly any reason to send a crew into Helene at this point.

[artist]

curious - which don't that are as reliable?

[sma10]

So we now have 3 models that want to take it west: GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET.

yeah...3 highly reliable models.

True. But the models that recurve the storm are also HIGHLY reliable models. Interesting, isn't it?

Yeah, but of course that's ignored.

I hear you Brent. If the Euro and GFDL were showing west and the UK and GFS were showing recurve it would still be the same story

[Scorpion]

It's 4 to 2 in terms of west vs north. Yesterday it was 1 to 5. Hmm.

[Kerry04]

So now we have 4 models going west? (GFS,UKMET,NOGAPS,NAM)

[cycloneye]

It will be very interesting to see the 00z global models run that will have the information from the NOAA survelliance plane that flew today.

[Kerry04]

It will be very interesting to see the 00z global models run that will have the information from the NOAA survelliance plane that flew today.

when do the runs come out?

[sma10]

It's 4 to 2 in terms of west vs north. Yesterday it was 1 to 5. Hmm.

4 to 2? Are you counting the NAM as one of the four?? Even meteorologists don't use the NAM for the tropics.

Also, you can count the Canadian (CMC), for what it's worth, as one of the recurvers, so it's actually 3 showing north.