Akash and Gonu thread

[angelwing]

Welcome Zajko and stay safe!

[Zajko]

Cheers guys: not taking any real risks, I don't think. The road is good and loops well inland, west of the Hajar Mountains and between them and the Wahhiba Sands (desert). The coast road is awful and impassable after even a light shower - not paved either and you'd be crazy to go that way right now. But the inland road is good - the only real risk on the 350km hike down to the cape is flash flooding, I think, and it's hopefully a bit early for that - not raining yet. Travelling with a friend in a 4wd so should be fine.

The biggest effect of this system is likely to be the rain - we simply don't get any for months on end here, and in the southern sands it can go for years without more than a few drops. When it DOES rain, however, the whole ecosystem changes. The effects of a storm in 1948 down here lasted for years and spawned huge plagues of locusts which spread across the entire south of the Arabian peninsula. Anyone have any thoughts or figures re exactly how much rain this thing is likely to dump on Oman?

Anyway, I'm off to Sur now. Will post when I get back on Thursday (insha'Allah) if there's anything interesting to report.

Zajko

[Chacor]

Yes, God willing, whichever God one believes in, you'll get back on Thursday and we'll get no reports of casualties. This could be quite the rude shock for little-knowing people. Iran has nothing re. Gonu up on their met website (http://www.weather.ir) yet.

EDIT: And locusts? Ugh. That could be bad.

[Chacor]

Weakened considerably. Losing most of its deep convection. Still great outflow though.

[WindRunner]

NRL has it down to 105kts/938mb. Definately still has a strong core, though. Weakening should be slower for (at least) the next few hours.

[HURAKAN]

HOLD ON TIGHT, THE ROLLER COASTER IS GOING DOWN!!!

The last time you said that, the "roller coaster" went up!

This time I think I got it right!!!

[btangy]

I've been doing some Google Earth browsing, and it appears that some of the cities along with Gulf of Oman are built in or right along dry river beds or in coastal deltas that are fed via canyons just inland. This is a setup for disaster since there will literally be water coming from all directions if there is surge+flooding. I really hope people move to higher ground if this thing continues on course for Oman.

[btangy]

00Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET show Gonu either hitting or skimming the very NE tip of Oman later today ( http://web.mit.edu/btangy/Public/GonuECMUKM.gif ) and then unfortunately riding up the coast with a very close pass to Muscat. The JTWC track is heavily favoring the NOGAPS and GFDN models which favor a quicker recurvature into Iran. The GFS has had a southward bias all along so it is discounted.

Short term trends indicate that the track is slightly south of the JTWC 12Z forecast position and closest to the 00Z ECMWF track.

[curtadams]

NRL has it down to 105kts/938mb. Definately still has a strong core, though. Weakening should be slower for (at least) the next few hours.

That may be an overestimate. Sat estimates often lag behind the changes (for a variety of good reasons) but this time I think they're too lagged. Look at the CIMSS estimates (current in green, official in blue).

[Chacor]

Well, CIMSS has it at CI5.2 (104.6 kt) so NRL might not be wrong there.

[Janie2006]

Fascinating. I don't imagine Oman or Iran gets a tropical cyclone very often! I hope the flooding and/or surge isn't very severe...there is the potential for tragedy here.

[Janie2006]

Yes, God willing, whichever God one believes in, you'll get back on Thursday and we'll get no reports of casualties. This could be quite the rude shock for little-knowing people. Iran has nothing re. Gonu up on their met website (http://www.weather.ir) yet.

EDIT: And locusts? Ugh. That could be bad.

Hopefully they'll get something on their website soon. Gonu doesn't have all that many options at this point.

[Chacor]

Fascinating. I don't imagine Oman or Iran gets a tropical cyclone very often! I hope the flooding and/or surge isn't very severe...there is the potential for tragedy here.

In the JTWC best-tracks, no cyclone is recorded as having made a direct hit on Iran, let alone a hurricane-strength (JTWC forecast at Iran landfall is 90 kts) cyclone...

[Chacor]

Latest JTWC adv is out. 105 kts.

Landfall at 07/00Z in Iran at 70 kts.

Per this, eastern Oman should now be experiencing very high 50 kt winds.

[Janie2006]

According to the Islamic Republic News Agency's weather page, there is nothing especially unusual to report:

- Persian Gulf and Oman Sea coastal provinces of Khuzestan, Bushehr, Hormuzgan and Sistan-Baluchestan as well as islands of Abu Mousa, Greater and Lesser Tunbs, Qeshm, and Lavan: Slightly to partly cloudy, on afternoon with increasing clouds, in some areas with wind or shower and thunder

Surely they are aware of Gonu?

[Chacor]

According to the Islamic Republic News Agency's weather page, there is nothing especially unusual to report:

- Persian Gulf and Oman Sea coastal provinces of Khuzestan, Bushehr, Hormuzgan and Sistan-Baluchestan as well as islands of Abu Mousa, Greater and Lesser Tunbs, Qeshm, and Lavan: Slightly to partly cloudy, on afternoon with increasing clouds, in some areas with wind or shower and thunder

Surely they are aware of Gonu?

To be fair to them the IMD track takes it nowhere near Iran, and the JTWC track shows 34-kts reaching the coast only around 12Z tomorrow.

[WindRunner]

According to the Islamic Republic News Agency's weather page, there is nothing especially unusual to report:

- Persian Gulf and Oman Sea coastal provinces of Khuzestan, Bushehr, Hormuzgan and Sistan-Baluchestan as well as islands of Abu Mousa, Greater and Lesser Tunbs, Qeshm, and Lavan: Slightly to partly cloudy, on afternoon with increasing clouds, in some areas with wind or shower and thunder

Surely they are aware of Gonu?

To be fair to them the IMD track takes it nowhere near Iran, and the JTWC track shows 34-kts reaching the coast only around 12Z tomorrow.

I thought that was just the IMD model, because I didn't think they made an official forecast track?

[punkyg]

Do you think they will talk about gonu on the news you know like cnn?

[JonathanBelles]

Its been on TWC, but I havent been on CNN in a while.

[wxman57]

Core appears to be collapsing quite rapidly. Eye no longer visible. T-numbers suggest Cat 1 now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt02A.html