Low Pressure in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM: 1006mb

[Opal storm]

Poof!

[Extremeweatherguy]

There is still a circulation down there right now, so it bears watching. However, it does not look too healthy ATM.

[TampaFl]

Poof!

The first offical "POOF" of the 2007 Hurricane Season has been issued by Opal Storm




Robert

[hawkeh]

Season cancel

['CaneFreak]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Who said poof? I see convection firing. Still bears watching.

[Opal storm]

Not exactly in the S Carib but...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

[Brent]

Season cancel

I think it looks pretty good now considering it's the end of May.

[windstorm99]

Convection still rather disorganized down there but its been rather persistent all evening.The possiblity is there for some type of low to form down there whether its tropical or non-tropical then rain is welcomed in south florida and hopefully we can get some of it over the lake.

[Aric Dunn]

there is a surface low forming near roatan island just off shore hondorous

out of all the mess over the past few days this mess!! has the most promise... it has the the strongest low level cuvature and a better pressure field .. there is a ship right near swan island with a pressure of 1007 mb.

and there is a small upper anti cyclone almost over it .. but very hostile as you enter into the gulf ....

reminds me of alberto last year .. almost the exact set up

[wxman57]

You're looking in the wrong area. Look farther north in the NW Caribbean to the southern Gulf for this disturbance. Moisture will be streaming northward into an upper trof/low across the north-central Gulf over the next 24-48 hours. That's where the low may form. But it'll be in a high shear environment, more of a hybrid low. Probably sub-TS force winds. Beneficial rain for Florida though, possibly. May not be organized enough for NHC to worry about it, but wouldn't rule a TD or STD out.

[Aric Dunn]

You're looking in the wrong area. Look farther north in the southern Gulf for this disturbance. Moisture will be streaming northward into an upper trof/low across the north-central Gulf over the next 24-48 hours. That's where the low may form. But it'll be in a high shear environment, more of a hybrid low. Probably sub-TS force winds. Beneficial rain for Florida though, possibly. May not be organized enough for NHC to worry about it, but wouldn't rule a TD or STD out.

rather not... there is nothing there .... easterlies blowing straight thru it ...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[NDG]

You're looking in the wrong area. Look farther north in the NW Caribbean to the southern Gulf for this disturbance. Moisture will be streaming northward into an upper trof/low across the north-central Gulf over the next 24-48 hours. That's where the low may form. But it'll be in a high shear environment, more of a hybrid low. Probably sub-TS force winds. Beneficial rain for Florida though, possibly. May not be organized enough for NHC to worry about it, but wouldn't rule a TD or STD out.

Euro seems to agree with you or viceversa.
Seriously, I think the euro is right on the money for right now.

[windstorm99]

Interesting to see dark blues in the NW caribbean on the probability map.

[Aric Dunn]

You're looking in the wrong area. Look farther north in the southern Gulf for this disturbance. Moisture will be streaming northward into an upper trof/low across the north-central Gulf over the next 24-48 hours. That's where the low may form. But it'll be in a high shear environment, more of a hybrid low. Probably sub-TS force winds. Beneficial rain for Florida though, possibly. May not be organized enough for NHC to worry about it, but wouldn't rule a TD or STD out.

rather not... there is nothing there .... easterlies blowing straight thru it ...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

oh wait maybe this will help you see where the low is forming as i said
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrcir.gif

I have also found some south and Sw winds on the honduras coast http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/HN_cc.html

also the island roatan and the one next to it ( quanaja to its east) have North and then SW

so the Low is and has been trying to get going in that area all day

[boca]

You're looking in the wrong area. Look farther north in the southern Gulf for this disturbance. Moisture will be streaming northward into an upper trof/low across the north-central Gulf over the next 24-48 hours. That's where the low may form. But it'll be in a high shear environment, more of a hybrid low. Probably sub-TS force winds. Beneficial rain for Florida though, possibly. May not be organized enough for NHC to worry about it, but wouldn't rule a TD or STD out.

rather not... there is nothing there .... easterlies blowing straight thru it ...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

oh wait maybe this will help you see where the low is forming as i said
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrcir.gif

I have also found some south and Sw winds on the honduras coast http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/HN_cc.html

also the island roatan and the one next to it ( quanaja to its east) have North and then SW

so the Low is and has been trying to get going in that area all day

How do you read that map with the numbers going from 1to 5 or viceversa.

[Ptarmigan]

Please send it to Florida.

[boca]

Notice the barometric pressure is dropping at Roatan off Honduras.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Gfs,Gfdl develops a low pressure. Both track it from that blob in the western caribbean south of Cuba. This reminds me of Alberto, yes high shear to its north, but overall shear around the system its self is decreasing at 10 knots. Which is another sign...The Cmc shows a fairly organized system; maybe a strong tropical storm/subtropical storm?

[Meso]

[Aquawind]

Come on blob..you can do it.. come to florida..get a tan your looking little white.. We will give you a free 3 day vacation to Disney!