Invest 98L in Western Atlantic
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Re: Re:
NDG wrote:Scorpion wrote:I love it how the season just keeps getting pushed further and further back. Theres no more excuses... its almost August, and what do we have to show for it? A marginal subtropical storm in May, and a marginal TD/TS in very early June. 2006 had more activity by this time than now. The only systems being depicted by models are in the long range, 200 plus hours out. We all know how reliable those are. When September arrives so does a more fall-like pattern, with troughs digging deeper and the SST's beginning to cool. Time is running out.
I'm sure you felt the same way in '98 & '04 about this same time, and then look what happened.
Exactly my point... Please forgive me. Last thing I wanna be is a certain 7-letter profanity beginning with "a" and has an "h" in there about four letters in. But season cancels just rub me the wrong way. *fuses away to vent frustration somewhere harmless*
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Re: Re:
Opal storm wrote:Exactly. So many people now consider 2005 the average. It's like if we don't have 5 hurricanes by August the whole season is a bust.NDG wrote:Scorpion wrote:I love it how the season just keeps getting pushed further and further back. Theres no more excuses... its almost August, and what do we have to show for it? A marginal subtropical storm in May, and a marginal TD/TS in very early June. 2006 had more activity by this time than now. The only systems being depicted by models are in the long range, 200 plus hours out. We all know how reliable those are. When September arrives so does a more fall-like pattern, with troughs digging deeper and the SST's beginning to cool. Time is running out.
I'm sure you felt the same way in '98 & '04 about this same time, and then look what happened.
mostly of the media's doing.....
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Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic
Face it. This season is canceled. Let's go on to the next one. 

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Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic
HurricaneRobert wrote:Face it. This season is canceled. Let's go on to the next one.
I agree, all we have to look forward too for the rest of the year is a few more test invests and a spurious low here and there.

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Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic
hurricanetrack wrote:For those who think this is just a test, have you been reading the TWOs? Those certainly aren't tests and the GFS does develop this thing in just a few short days as it lifts out. Are we THAT bored? My goodness....
i don't think this one was a test. my point is it doesn't matter whether it was or not.
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- Weatherfreak14
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Re:
Cyclone1 wrote:We need a Chantal before we all go crazy. Starting feuds over season cancels and test invests. We need a good tropical storm.
Very much agreed.
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic
Folks, there is way too much intensity
in some posts...
No need for anybody to be upset at
each other...there is some degree
of a switch nature to the tropics...
before the switch is flipped
all is quiet.
after it is flipped...KABOOM!
in some posts...
No need for anybody to be upset at
each other...there is some degree
of a switch nature to the tropics...
before the switch is flipped
all is quiet.
after it is flipped...KABOOM!
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- HURAKAN
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF
BERMUDA. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS BERMUDA TODAY. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF
BERMUDA. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS BERMUDA TODAY. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
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Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic
From the 8:05am TWD:
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 35N74W 32N70W 28N67W. SYSTEM REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED WITH SEVERAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE
TROUGH. THIS TROUGH STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10-15 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WERE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND ARE SPREADING OVER BERMUDA AND SHOULD
IMPACT THE WEATHER OVER THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 35N74W 32N70W 28N67W. SYSTEM REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED WITH SEVERAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE
TROUGH. THIS TROUGH STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10-15 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WERE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND ARE SPREADING OVER BERMUDA AND SHOULD
IMPACT THE WEATHER OVER THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.
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Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic
First visible images reveal a pretty well-defined LLC near 32.2 67.8W:

Convection is far removed from the the center though.

Convection is far removed from the the center though.
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- senorpepr
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Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic
Let me take another opportunity to stomp on this subject. Some I think are getting the word "test" confused with "fake" or "made-up". wxman57 was trying to say this was possibly a test on a weak system that posed limited chance of development. Could it have developed? Maybe--and that's stretching it. Anyone really thinking this was the next Chantal should relax.
Yes, the NHC wasn't identifying some random blob of cumulus for testing purposes. It wasn't completely made up. What good would that do? Let's test on something--anything--worthy of an invest. Let us run some models on something.
Let me put it this way... tropical models don't work well on a blob of unorganized cumulus. They do better on some quasi-tropical disturbance in the absence of real tropical disturbances.
Yes, the NHC wasn't identifying some random blob of cumulus for testing purposes. It wasn't completely made up. What good would that do? Let's test on something--anything--worthy of an invest. Let us run some models on something.
Let me put it this way... tropical models don't work well on a blob of unorganized cumulus. They do better on some quasi-tropical disturbance in the absence of real tropical disturbances.
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Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic
senorpepr wrote:Let me take another opportunity to stomp on this subject. Some I think are getting the word "test" confused with "fake" or "made-up". wxman57 was trying to say this was possibly a test on a weak system that posed limited chance of development. Could it have developed? Maybe--and that's stretching it. Anyone really thinking this was the next Chantal should relax.
Yes, the NHC wasn't identifying some random blob of cumulus for testing purposes. It wasn't completely made up. What good would that do? Let's test on something--anything--worthy of an invest. Let us run some models on something.
Let me put it this way... tropical models don't work well on a blob of unorganized cumulus. They do better on some quasi-tropical disturbance in the absence of real tropical disturbances.
Thank you! I come here to keep afloat to what's going on and instead I'm having to filter through long threads and posts about test, what's a test, what makes up a test, and who knows more than who. Time to get back on topic folks.
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- HURAKAN
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Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic
HollynLA wrote:senorpepr wrote:Let me take another opportunity to stomp on this subject. Some I think are getting the word "test" confused with "fake" or "made-up". wxman57 was trying to say this was possibly a test on a weak system that posed limited chance of development. Could it have developed? Maybe--and that's stretching it. Anyone really thinking this was the next Chantal should relax.
Yes, the NHC wasn't identifying some random blob of cumulus for testing purposes. It wasn't completely made up. What good would that do? Let's test on something--anything--worthy of an invest. Let us run some models on something.
Let me put it this way... tropical models don't work well on a blob of unorganized cumulus. They do better on some quasi-tropical disturbance in the absence of real tropical disturbances.
Thank you! I come here to keep afloat to what's going on and instead I'm having to filter through long threads and posts about test, what's a test, what makes up a test, and who knows more than who. Time to get back on topic folks.
I wouldn't expect either the NHC to waste time and resources.
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