Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#321 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 29, 2007 9:40 pm

Just remember, the best is yet to come!!!
0 likes   

Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2739
Age: 33
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

Re: Re:

#322 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Jul 29, 2007 9:41 pm

NDG wrote:
Scorpion wrote:I love it how the season just keeps getting pushed further and further back. Theres no more excuses... its almost August, and what do we have to show for it? A marginal subtropical storm in May, and a marginal TD/TS in very early June. 2006 had more activity by this time than now. The only systems being depicted by models are in the long range, 200 plus hours out. We all know how reliable those are. When September arrives so does a more fall-like pattern, with troughs digging deeper and the SST's beginning to cool. Time is running out.


I'm sure you felt the same way in '98 & '04 about this same time, and then look what happened.


Exactly my point... Please forgive me. Last thing I wanna be is a certain 7-letter profanity beginning with "a" and has an "h" in there about four letters in. But season cancels just rub me the wrong way. *fuses away to vent frustration somewhere harmless*
0 likes   

User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:

Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

#323 Postby skysummit » Sun Jul 29, 2007 9:41 pm

LOL....my favorite part is "time is running out". HA!
0 likes   

jaxfladude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1249
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:36 pm
Location: Jacksonville, Fla

Re: Re:

#324 Postby jaxfladude » Sun Jul 29, 2007 9:45 pm

Opal storm wrote:
NDG wrote:
Scorpion wrote:I love it how the season just keeps getting pushed further and further back. Theres no more excuses... its almost August, and what do we have to show for it? A marginal subtropical storm in May, and a marginal TD/TS in very early June. 2006 had more activity by this time than now. The only systems being depicted by models are in the long range, 200 plus hours out. We all know how reliable those are. When September arrives so does a more fall-like pattern, with troughs digging deeper and the SST's beginning to cool. Time is running out.


I'm sure you felt the same way in '98 & '04 about this same time, and then look what happened.
Exactly. So many people now consider 2005 the average. It's like if we don't have 5 hurricanes by August the whole season is a bust.

mostly of the media's doing.....
0 likes   

HurricaneRobert
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 812
Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 9:31 pm

Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

#325 Postby HurricaneRobert » Sun Jul 29, 2007 9:46 pm

Face it. This season is canceled. Let's go on to the next one. :lol:
0 likes   

Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2739
Age: 33
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

#326 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Jul 29, 2007 9:48 pm

HurricaneRobert wrote:Face it. This season is canceled. Let's go on to the next one. :lol:


I agree, all we have to look forward too for the rest of the year is a few more test invests and a spurious low here and there. :roll: XD
0 likes   

User avatar
Bane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 690
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2003 3:06 pm
Location: Ogden, NC
Contact:

Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

#327 Postby Bane » Sun Jul 29, 2007 9:50 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:For those who think this is just a test, have you been reading the TWOs? Those certainly aren't tests and the GFS does develop this thing in just a few short days as it lifts out. Are we THAT bored? My goodness....


i don't think this one was a test. my point is it doesn't matter whether it was or not.
0 likes   

Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2739
Age: 33
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

#328 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Jul 29, 2007 9:53 pm

We need a Chantal before we all go crazy. Starting feuds over season cancels and test invests. We need a good tropical storm. :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
Weatherfreak14
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC
Contact:

Re:

#329 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sun Jul 29, 2007 9:53 pm

Cyclone1 wrote:We need a Chantal before we all go crazy. Starting feuds over season cancels and test invests. We need a good tropical storm. :wink:


Very much agreed.
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

#330 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Jul 29, 2007 9:54 pm

Folks, there is way too much intensity
in some posts...

No need for anybody to be upset at
each other...there is some degree
of a switch nature to the tropics...
before the switch is flipped
all is quiet.
after it is flipped...KABOOM!
0 likes   

Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2739
Age: 33
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

#331 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Jul 29, 2007 9:55 pm

This is getting waaaay off-topic. :eek:
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

#332 Postby RL3AO » Sun Jul 29, 2007 9:55 pm

Image
0 likes   

Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2739
Age: 33
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

#333 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Jul 29, 2007 10:04 pm

Anyway, back on topic. Looks like 98L is basically dying. Just because it didn't become a tropical depression, doesn't mean it was just a test. Either way, the end is in sight.
0 likes   

philnyc
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 313
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2007 1:14 am
Location: Brooklyn, New York City, New York
Contact:

Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

#334 Postby philnyc » Sun Jul 29, 2007 11:52 pm

RL3AO wrote:Image



That says it all.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#335 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:02 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF
BERMUDA. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS BERMUDA TODAY. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
0 likes   

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

#336 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:10 am

From the 8:05am TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 35N74W 32N70W 28N67W. SYSTEM REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED WITH SEVERAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE
TROUGH. THIS TROUGH STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10-15 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WERE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND ARE SPREADING OVER BERMUDA AND SHOULD
IMPACT THE WEATHER OVER THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.
0 likes   

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

#337 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:25 am

First visible images reveal a pretty well-defined LLC near 32.2 67.8W:

Image

Convection is far removed from the the center though.
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

#338 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:25 am

Let me take another opportunity to stomp on this subject. Some I think are getting the word "test" confused with "fake" or "made-up". wxman57 was trying to say this was possibly a test on a weak system that posed limited chance of development. Could it have developed? Maybe--and that's stretching it. Anyone really thinking this was the next Chantal should relax.

Yes, the NHC wasn't identifying some random blob of cumulus for testing purposes. It wasn't completely made up. What good would that do? Let's test on something--anything--worthy of an invest. Let us run some models on something.

Let me put it this way... tropical models don't work well on a blob of unorganized cumulus. They do better on some quasi-tropical disturbance in the absence of real tropical disturbances.
0 likes   

User avatar
HollynLA
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 836
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:36 pm
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

#339 Postby HollynLA » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:30 am

senorpepr wrote:Let me take another opportunity to stomp on this subject. Some I think are getting the word "test" confused with "fake" or "made-up". wxman57 was trying to say this was possibly a test on a weak system that posed limited chance of development. Could it have developed? Maybe--and that's stretching it. Anyone really thinking this was the next Chantal should relax.

Yes, the NHC wasn't identifying some random blob of cumulus for testing purposes. It wasn't completely made up. What good would that do? Let's test on something--anything--worthy of an invest. Let us run some models on something.

Let me put it this way... tropical models don't work well on a blob of unorganized cumulus. They do better on some quasi-tropical disturbance in the absence of real tropical disturbances.



Thank you! I come here to keep afloat to what's going on and instead I'm having to filter through long threads and posts about test, what's a test, what makes up a test, and who knows more than who. Time to get back on topic folks.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

#340 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:31 am

HollynLA wrote:
senorpepr wrote:Let me take another opportunity to stomp on this subject. Some I think are getting the word "test" confused with "fake" or "made-up". wxman57 was trying to say this was possibly a test on a weak system that posed limited chance of development. Could it have developed? Maybe--and that's stretching it. Anyone really thinking this was the next Chantal should relax.

Yes, the NHC wasn't identifying some random blob of cumulus for testing purposes. It wasn't completely made up. What good would that do? Let's test on something--anything--worthy of an invest. Let us run some models on something.

Let me put it this way... tropical models don't work well on a blob of unorganized cumulus. They do better on some quasi-tropical disturbance in the absence of real tropical disturbances.



Thank you! I come here to keep afloat to what's going on and instead I'm having to filter through long threads and posts about test, what's a test, what makes up a test, and who knows more than who. Time to get back on topic folks.


I wouldn't expect either the NHC to waste time and resources.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, redingtonbeach and 45 guests