Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

[Ivanhater]

Development is not supposed to occur till tomorrow...so I will be watching this area tomorrow when it is not associated with the front

[HeeBGBz]

We had a hell of a front come through here about 5ish. In an earlier post, I mentioned we had a hazy sky for most of the day. I was at work and noticed an odd line in the haze so I went inside to get my camera. By the time I got back outside, this roiling mass had already halfway crossed the sky. It was intense.



It looked like those clouds that Spielberg pops aliens out of.



This came from the NE very quickly.



The intense part only lasted about 10 minutes with a hard rain and left us with a continuing light rain and grey skies.

Interesting 18Z GFS run - it develops a weak low that heads north through coastal MS into central MS then turns east though central AL and then southward back into the NE GOM, intensifies into tropical storm and heads toward western LA. Entertaining to say the least!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

I thought you were making a joke until I clicked the link. According to that run, it comes through and hits us twice!

[MississippiHurricane]

Central Ms?! Oh boy. Well, we need the rain

[tropicwatch]

If nothing else, I hope this system is a drought buster for some. The recent buoy readings are a little interesting. Buoy 42039 about 75 miles south of Panama City winds out of the east pressure 1011.5mb, buoy 42040 south of Pensacola winds out of the NE pressure 1010.3mb and buoy 42003 270 miles south of Panama City winds out of the west pressure 1011.3mb. These readings could possibly indicate a closed circulation. Will have to wait and see if it persists.

Tropicwatch

[CrazyC83]

So they could be doing 2 recon flights at once tomorrow?

[rockyman]

Latest plot shows a 1010 low connected to a stationary front due south of Mobile...due east of the mouth of the Mississippi

Click below, then check the "Fronts" box

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html

[windstorm99]

This area looks very disorganized at the present time and development if any will be slow.Looks like nothing to significant just some rain.

[wobblehead]

Buoys indicating a slow developing low pressure south of the Fl panhandle.
Buoy: 42040 winds N, 29.83-
42039 winds E, 29.86-
42003 winds WNW, 29.85
Winds indicate circulation.
Conditions look favorable for a depression to form.

[wxman57]

This system looks less impressive than earlier today. There's no organization at all to the thunderstorms, though there is a broad area of low pressure. Development won't occur without intense convection that persists, and I'm not seeing that this evening. Have to keep a close eye on it the next 48 hours until it all moves inland to the north. The good news is that there's probably not much chance of it becoming a strong storm, but it could bring some well-needed rain to some areas that are pretty dry.

[Stormcenter]

This system looks less impressive than earlier today. There's no organization at all to the thunderstorms, though there is a broad area of low pressure. Development won't occur without intense convection that persists, and I'm not seeing that this evening. Have to keep a close eye on it the next 48 hours until it all moves inland to the north. The good news is that there's probably not much chance of it becoming a strong storm, but it could bring some well-needed rain to some areas that are pretty dry.

Okay so what do you put the chances for development percentage wise based on what is out there at the moment and model support? Thanks.

[tropicsgal05]

I was just watching Dr Steve lyon's on TWC. He mentioned 2 fronts coming down and in 12 hours is when the low pressure may form.This is how i understood it. Did anyone else watch the update and if so did iu nderstand him right?

[Weatherfreak14]

I just watched it and yes thats the way i think he explained it and yes this is a area of intrest but all i think it will only amount to rain across the gulf states and Ga and parts of SC.

[wxman57]

This system looks less impressive than earlier today. There's no organization at all to the thunderstorms, though there is a broad area of low pressure. Development won't occur without intense convection that persists, and I'm not seeing that this evening. Have to keep a close eye on it the next 48 hours until it all moves inland to the north. The good news is that there's probably not much chance of it becoming a strong storm, but it could bring some well-needed rain to some areas that are pretty dry.

Okay so what do you put the chances for development percentage wise based on what is out there at the moment and model support? Thanks.

I'd say 30-40%, which is a greater chance than I'm estimating for 99L. But this isn't likely going to be anything but a rain event for the northern Gulf coast. That 30-40% chance is for a TD or very weak TS before it moves inland Friday.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ARE SPREADING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AT THIS TIME BUT CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA
AGAIN ON THURSDAY...IF NECESSARY.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION BUT SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Weatherfreak14]

Id give this a 30% chance for devloping.

[HURAKAN]

Id give this a 30% chance for devloping.

Based on how many flips of a coin?

[cpdaman]

WXman57 just the other day you said 40% for the 99L (i think) what caused the downgrade in your chances

[Weatherfreak14]

Id give this a 30% chance for devloping.

Based on how many flips of a coin?

3 Actually. JK, well it is in a somewhat favorible area and it doesent look really organized right now but it could become something by tommrow, otherwise why would the RECON go out then?

[skysummit]

Bob Breck (LOL) just said he thinks the low nearest the mouth of the Mississippi River will win out, slowly organize and drift north toward the MGC.

[wobblehead]

At present a 1009mb low is about due south of P'cola. It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow with day time heating and associated thunderstorm developement.
Obviously we should not expect much in the way of intensification due to the close proximity to land but it is a nice topic of discussion.
Great opportunity to examine and learn from a non threatening slow developer so close to land.