INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

[flwxwatcher]

DSHP takes into account a cyclone interacting with land.

[Derek Ortt]

DSHP includes land

[NONAME]

Thank you very much anything to learn more.

[flwxwatcher]

I think the GFDL does not develop 99L anymore.

The 18Z GFDL doesn't develope the system. the 18Z HWRF still does.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Ivanhater]

until models really have anything to initialize....they dont hold much water at this point

[cycloneye]

until models really have anything to initialize....they dont hold much water at this point

Agree on that.

[Blown Away]

Nice convection burst on NE side.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[NONAME]

Yes the last three frames have show an nice convection burst i think it will continue to the dry air is further away from the center the outflow debris from the convection earlier moved it away a little.

[Steve]

>>doesnt matter if this develops or not. The deep layer steering will take this to the west. Only difference is in forward speed. A shallow system will move faster, but it is not going to gain latitude even if it were to become a cat 5, not with the steering winds straight out of the east

Derek, I've looked at the charts for some of the steering levels, but if it did develop east of the islands, I would still bet my money on it finding some kind of weakness prior to paralleling with the US East Coast. I don't see much happening before 65-70W, if ever, but climatology for late July/early August for anything east of the Caribbean almost always heads out to sea. Now I know that every couple of years there is a system that puts a new dot or track on the map and breaks the conventional wisdom we thought we had figured out, but the odds would have to have been on some type of weakness. As it is, I don't think it can develop now. But I'll give you your due as there is a pretty strong push out of the east for several degress north of the latitude 99L is at now.

Steve

[Aquawind]

Pressure drop and gain in lattitude..

[NONAME]

Hey Derek where are you putting the center right now.

[Derek Ortt]

center is still almost certainly on the south edge of the convection

As for any weakness, I don't currently see anything significant until the NW Carib

[Ivanhater]

center is still almost certainly on the south edge of the convection

As for any weakness, I don't currently see anything significant until the NW Carib

Well doesnt that suck for the gulf? assuming it is anything when it is there...

[gatorcane]

Folks strap on your seatbelts, here comes that convection as we are in the nighttime hours.....our invest is definitely showing it could be a factor if this continues....

I guess I'll be on this board now for the next 7-10 days as we all wonder where it will end up and how strong it will get...if it develops..

As for a weakness you would think there is a chance but I'm still rooting for a westerly track well south of Cuba into Mexico....climatology says this is a possibility by the way...

Fox13NewsWeather mentioned earlier the ridge builds in for a few days next week then a EC trough is supposed to swing through....any ideas?

I find it bizarrely similar to perhaps what Charley, Ivan, or Dennis saw although I hesitate to prematurely draw comparisons at the moment)...

[canegrl04]

After so many false starts (the last few invests) looks like this one is for real. Chantal is on her way

[Stratosphere747]

It's really not going to matter unless it slows down a bit and starts to gain some Lat. Whatever center is present is racing off to west of the current blow up.

[wxman57]

Mid-level spin near 10.3N/50.3W as of 8pm CDT. It's a lot easier to see without all that nasty convection blocking the view. Certainly not on the fast track toward development, but something to keep a sharp eye on over the next week as it tracks westward at 13-15 mph. I am not sure what the shallow-layer BAM is seeing as far as low-level winds. I've tracked the system using 24-hr satellite motion and I'm getting about 12.5 kts (as of this morning).

[Derek Ortt]

we are not seeing chantal on its way. The thing is light years away from TD status. That convective blow up is not even associated with the MLC, but appears to be related to some convergence east of it. Yes, a center could reform it the convergence can persist for about 24h... but that would slow development even more.

[Cyclone1]

we are not seeing chantal on its way. The thing is light years away from TD status. That convective blow up is not even associated with the MLC, but appears to be related to some convergence east of it. Yes, a center could reform it the convergence can persist for about 24h... but that would slow development even more.

Just to point this out, a light year is a measurement of distance, not time. Hehe, sorry just had to say that.

[Weatherfreak000]

It certainly would help if everyone didn't say things like "Chantal is on the way".


I've seen DEPRESSIONS classified as invests but really for that a TD form in that area and within the 3 hour period to the next TWO, completely lose all of it's strong convection and die.


The point is persistence, i'd put money this thing doesn't have even a chance for development until at least the next 48 hours.