Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

[canegrl04]

Time to watch the coast of Africa. It certainly looks like this wave is dying.I'm beginning to wonder if the enviro will ever be favorable for a cane to develope this year

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, as a complete amateur (I did take thermo classes at Texas, and classes in modelling multi-layer/multi-fluid systems, but that was for Petroleum Engineering) I can say I still see what appears like either a closed or almost closed low-mid level center, with a few showers trying to pop on the convergence ahead of it, with the almost/maybe LLCC at 1945Z, about 12ºN, 52.5ºW.


BTW, "Chief Meteorologist" on the NBC affiliate has a one year certificate in "broadcast met" from MSU, but has big budget for doppler radar and fancy (and often useless, IMHO) toys like a satellite/radar animation that lets you zip under the clouds and see raindrops.

The CBS affiliate has a PhD former director of NHC/TPC, but his budget is low. His weathercast is vintage 1970s.


When I was young in NYC area, none, IIRC, of TV weather people had met/atos. science backgrounds

[storms in NC]

Looks like a open wave.

[CourierPR]

Forgive my ignorance, but is the development of 99L being hampered by the disturbance trailing behind?

[Agua]

*poof*

[RL3AO]

Forgive my ignorance, but is the development of 99L being hampered by the disturbance trailing behind?

No it is the dry air that is literally choking 99L.

[philnyc]

how much does the MJO really affect the Atlantic? We had next to no convection when we had the "positive phase" in the Atlantic

Great point. And right now there's alot of thunderstorms popping in the eastern Caribbean, over the islands, and Central and northern South America, even though the MJO is negative at all of those places. There are just too many other factors involved to put a lot of trust in the MJO's effect on upward motion.

[SouthFloridawx]

Forgive my ignorance, but is the development of 99L being hampered by the disturbance trailing behind?

No it is the dry air that is literally choking 99L.

Actually looking the CIMSS site, I don't think its the dry air that is choking 99L.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8wvmid.html

I would say it is probably be more related to the lack of convergence at the surface which is hampering development at this time.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html

Upper Level winds also appear to be favorable.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dvg.html

Convection looks to be firing up near the low... which you can clearly see either a low-mid level circulation on Sat.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

Looks like there is an Upper Level disturbance to the NW of the system which may aid in some additional convection in the next day or so...

We'll see what happens.

[philnyc]

In the latest satellite loops it appears that the center of a low (if any) has made a shift NW and is now starting to spin up some convection around this new swirl. Haven't we seen instances where a wave seemingly degenerates, the center relocates, and the convection fires again?

Just a question.


Also, what is the time of this pass? 1pm? -- edit: looks like 3PM if I read and converted correctly.

No. The time it was taken is in the little purple/blue numbers directly under the image at the right side: 09:41 which was 4:41AM EDT.

[Nimbus]

The sea surface temperatures are 2 degrees warmer down around 11N so we may see some convection start developing and wrapping further south. Once this gets west of 56W SST's are above 28C so the circulation should maintain itself during the day.

The GFS earlier was tracking the system up close to th big islands and into the SE US. For a rapidly developing system with the islands on the strong side of the storm that was probably prudent.

Now the GFS is calling for what looks like a speed up in the forward speed upon entering the Caribbean. That would look like a tumbleweed headed for Mexico. What happens when this system hits the hot spot south of Jamaica? I think the GFS will be adjusted right later in the week.

[SouthFloridawx]

The sea surface temperatures are 2 degrees warmer down around 11N so we may see some convection start developing and wrapping further south. Once this gets west of 56W SST's are above 28C so the circulation should maintain itself during the day.

The GFS earlier was tracking the system up close to th big islands and into the SE US. For a rapidly developing system with the islands on the strong side of the storm that was probably prudent.

Now the GFS is calling for what looks like a speed up in the forward speed upon entering the Caribbean. That would look like a tumbleweed headed for Mexico. What happens when this system hits the hot spot south of Jamaica? I think the GFS will be adjusted right later in the week.

Doesn't it always.. lol

[philnyc]

Very nice analysis southfloridawx. A lot of people are looking at upper level WV, which isn't important. But upper divergence and lower convergence are critical, and that is exactly its problem right now. There is plenty of mid-level moisture around the system - you posted the CIMSS. One can also look at the sounding from Barbados as Derek likes to do, and you'll see a very moist 700mb reading.

Here's the 12Z sounding from today:


Much more moist at 700mb than last night.

Obviously we need to look at the whole area between the LLC and Barbados, but southfloridawx already posted a visual, anyway.

[jrod]

QUIKSCAT this morning showed a wide open wave. It's structure is very poor (by that I mean non existent)

I have no clue at all what some are seeing regarding this system. It was not organized last night despite the transient flare up and is most certainly has no organization this afternoon.

Once again you've put 95%ers in our places. I dont know whats wrong with me, but I was hoping for another TD to develop and making something about nothing. When it has been so long since I've seen a legitiment invest down there, I'll look over at the WPAC to see what a developing wave is suppose to look like. I'm glad we have many skilled METs on here to keep the rest of amatuers in check.

[Derek Ortt]

Barbados sounding also showed strong low level wind shear.

The SAL is modifying, but it will take a couple of mroe days for it to dissipate.

[philnyc]

Barbados sounding also showed strong low level wind shear.

The SAL is modifying, but it will take a couple of more days for it to dissipate.

Agreed about the moisture. I added the sounding to my post above. But the low-level shear would not affect a tropical cyclone very much, right? I think you meant mid-level.

[Meso]

[knotimpaired]

Good news for the northern islands.

If Luis is not commenting, we can all sleep well.

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, before the sun sets, I have personalized an extreme close-up from the NASA satellite site.


Staring very, very hard at this convinces me that there aren't any cloud elements with a West to East component South of the cneter of rotation, so it may not quite be a closed low, but it is close, and new showers are developing just ahead of it.


That said, it has a little over a day before the John Hope rule says it won't develop until it reaches the Western Caribbean.


While pre-viewing this, I got a look at Phil of NY's satellite, and the next wave does look impressive. Any guesses if/when that becomes 90L?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Oh, it was Meso's sat pic.

I know, OT, but I love the psychedelic tie-dye colors of the rainbow imagery.

[skysummit]

Boy....look at the next wave!