Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

[gatorcane]

I see absolutely no organization with this system. There is no LLC and very little surface convergence. I would be shocked if the convection does not collapse within the next few hours and recon should NOT fly today as it is clear based upon the data (and no, pretty IR imagery does not cut it) that this is a mere open wave, and a fairly weak one at that in terms of the surface wind shift.

Looks like I will have the time to get my final chest x-ray from my pneumonia from a couple of months ago today as the GOM is also disorganized this morning

Let's see what the guys from the NHC say on their next TWO due out in 1 hour. I believe in fact the storm is better organized and is responding with a vengeance to a very favorable environment. I will also be shocked if recon does not fly.

Agreed, I think the next NHC update will be even more bullish.

[RL3AO]

I just heard the word INVEST for the first time ever in history on TWC. Go Nicole!

ZOMG I MISSED IT!NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

[SouthFloridawx]

I see some yellow, which is rare for the Atlantic...

This thing looks like a fish ...

Literally...

[HURAKAN]

What is the record for the number of threads with one system?

[Cyclone1]

Holy crap! I see it! It does look like a fish!

PS: Category Two! Woo hoo!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Btw, NHC must change the floater, right now the open wave_invest is getting out of sight.

Here is Puerto Rico satellite imagery:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr.html

RAMSDIS floaters as well:
http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rms ... PICAL.html

[skysummit]

I see absolutely no organization with this system. There is no LLC and very little surface convergence. I would be shocked if the convection does not collapse within the next few hours and recon should NOT fly today as it is clear based upon the data (and no, pretty IR imagery does not cut it) that this is a mere open wave, and a fairly weak one at that in terms of the surface wind shift.

Looks like I will have the time to get my final chest x-ray from my pneumonia from a couple of months ago today as the GOM is also disorganized this morning

Let's see what the guys from the NHC say on their next TWO due out in 1 hour. I believe in fact the storm is better organized and is responding with a vengeance to a very favorable environment. I will also be shocked if recon does not fly.

It's almost impossible to tell if there's a LLC with this. I agree about surface convergence though...very little. It's going to be hard to continue this kind of convection through the day. What data are you basing your LLC analysis on? There are absolutely no surface obs within close enough vicinity to make a call of an LLC or not. (Unless you have personal buoys out there that no one knows about) If you're basing this off of Quickscat, just one source of data leaves me uncertain.

[bvigal]

Well I'm sure no expert, and don't wish to argue, I can see it moving too fast, and diurnal max has been reached and clouds are warming. But, NHC is full of the best experts, and I've seen the scoring criteria they use to issue TCFA. (A lot of systems don't rate TCFA before becoming TD's.) So, there must be some data to support possible development in 24hrs... Derek, you know it's not based on pretty pictures. Perhaps you can explain to us why they had to issue TCFA, yet won't want to fly this afternoon - I don't doubt that is true.

[tolakram]

6:30 AM EDT pass? Nothing going on under there.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If that TUTT develops, it could actually serve to weaken our future storm, especially if it doesn't slow down and potentially gets "too close" and suffers - getting its west side and top battered/blown away.

Within a few days the shear conditions will be less favorable for intensification overall, and that, along with the TUTT may keep a lid on this system until it gets further north into the gulf.

If it can strengthen rapidly, it may be able to overcome the shear issue to at least maintain itself, but it still must slow down to avoid greater impact from the TUTT.

TUTT will also help steer it on a more northerly path in my opinion as it does start to have some influence, egging it on to follow that western periphery line of the High and head more to the gulf as perviously stated.

As far as its current status... that outflow boundary concerns me that a LLC is not yet there. When there is an LLC, the storm vents out the top, not out the sides like a thunderstorm. We need to see the end to the outflows at the surface to know there is an LLC in my opinion.

[Chacor]

This is the microwave, just out, from earlier (12Z ish) that I was talking about. Anyone see an LLC?

[vaffie]

Dean the Fish. It's tricking us. It's really Dean the Shark.

[rockyman]

This is the microwave, just out, from earlier (12Z ish) that I was talking about. Anyone see an LLC?

The Navy site has repositioned (a couple of hours ago) the center at 12.6/65...which is right where the "center" appears on these pix

[drezee]

The low level clouds to the S of the convection are travelling W now. Travelling at 20+ mph...I would suspect that the recon will find a Tropical Storm and a deepening one at that.

I see no reason to change my thinking above. This is a classic fast moving Tropical Cyclone in the Eastern Caribbean. I mean classic. If recon does not find a tropical storm, then the equipment is faulty. I would gladly eat crow on this one. I could care less about the IR, the visible tells the story!

[canegrl04]

Holy crap! I see it! It does look like a fish!

PS: Category Two! Woo hoo!

Early CHantal looked like a shrimp.I think this is subliminal advertising for Red Lobster

[jasons2k]

Looks impressive, but more bark than bite.

[gatorcane]

Shear is not good just a few hundred miles west of it due to the TUTT low:

[sevenleft]

The low level clouds to the S of the convection are travelling W now. Travelling at 20+ mph...I would suspect that the recon will find a Tropical Storm and a deepening one at that.

I see no reason to change my thinking above. This is a classic fast moving Tropical Cyclone in the Eastern Caribbean. I mean classic. If recon does not find a tropical storm, then the equipment is faulty. I would gladly eat crow on this one. I could care less about the IR, the visible tells the story!

You must be joking.

[MGC]

With that large blow up of convection I'm thinking that another recon flight will be in order today unless it falls apart again.....MGC

[Windsurfer_NYC]

So when did NHC realize 99L was an open wave?? This morning or yesterday afternoon??


From the 805AM Discussion:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N61W...MOVING WEST
10 KT. THIS LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN WEAKENING LITTLE BY LITTLE
AND HAS BECOME AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS POINT BY
02/0900 UTC.


but as of yesterday afternoon's Outlook:

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON WAS NOT ABLE TO FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION.