Invest 99L Thread #6

[TheShrimper]

I believe there will be alot of head scratching down the road, perhaps as early as Friday late afternoon. TheShrimper

[miamicanes177]

Drastic thinking change in 5 hours. They are not even going to wait for the diurnal maximum before unplugging 99L.

A different forecaster wrote this TWO I believe than the one earlier. They probably have different opinions.

[RL3AO]

It is amazing how delicate this developing systems are.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I suppose once the diurnally driven S. American storms fade out, and stop competing for low level inflow, this might make a comeback, but this looks sicker than it did last night.


Well, people scoffed at the John Hope Rule yesterday, but another impressive looking wave fizzled in the eastern Caribbean.

Well, in a couple of days, when it gets into slower trades and the convergence caused by the trades being slowed by frictional effects caused by Central America, it may flare back up. Maybe sometime Sunday, before landfall a day later. I thought Bluefields, but it has already passed that latitude. Honduras or Belize.


I'm not a professional met, nor play one on TV

[Ed Mahmoud]

It has a recon scheduled, but it'll have to make one heck of a comeback overnight or the recon will be cancelled in the morning.

Ditto the old frontal trough in the GOMEX.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The wave behind it doesn't look as good either. The one coming off Africa looks great, but the last couple looked good over Africa. Maybe the busy cycle that started in 1995 is ending, ad we are back to the standard 7 to 10 storms per year.



Even the down part of the cycle featured the occasional Camille, Gilbert, Hugo and Andrew...

Just because they don't look good now does not mean those waves will not flare up closer to the islands and the United States. Remember 2005? Most of those storms didn't form way out in the Atlantic, but rather much closer to us. The same might happen over the next few weeks too.

BTW: The Hurricane cycle is really determined more by SSTs over a period of time. These cycles tend to last up to as many as 25-50 years and the current one has not ended. SSTs remain at or above normal over a good chunk of the tropical Atlantic in 2007. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

[jaxfladude]

DISCLAIMER ALERT!!!!
THE POST BELOW IS IN JEST AND NOT IN HOPES OF AN ACTUAL CAT 5 HURRICANE STRIKING LAND ANYWHERE:
HAPPY CAT 5 WISHES FOR THE NEXT NAMED SYSTEM!!

[weatherguru18]

*snippit from e-mail*

I intern with a meteorologist here in Houston. Frank Billingsley (OCM) had this to say...

Hey--I WELL remember when TD 10 fell apart and became a remnant
Low...then met up with a bit more energy and became TD12....then became
Katrina.
Never say die.

[mahmoo]

*snippit from e-mail*

I intern with a meteorologist here in Houston. Frank Billingsley (OCM) had this to say...

Hey--I WELL remember when TD 10 fell apart and became a remnant
Low...then met up with a bit more energy and became TD12....then became
Katrina.
Never say die.

I read that statement about 15 times..........interesting.

[wxman57]

Looks like I go away for a few hours and the board is all backwards. Usually, you're all talking up development and I'm countering your arguments. Tonight I see the convection has diminished (as I suspected it would with the rapid movement) but I still think it has a good chance of developing once it slows down, and it will slow down on Saturday. Don't read too much into the NHC outlook, they're just basically talking about development potential through tomorrow, which is lower. But such a vigorous wave will generate a burst of convection once it slows down and convergence increases significantly.

One other factor to consider - the best chance for development is Saturday - my one day off this week. So it HAS to develop on Saturday.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Boy, that shear is aimed like a dagger right at Tropical Disturbance 99L

Big picture WV loop

Still image of Caribbean WV doesn't quite show it like the loop does. Between the fast movement to the West, and the upper winds from the West, this is at least 2 days away from being anything more than a wave. In mu humble, non-professional opinion.

[jaxfladude]

*snippit from e-mail*

I intern with a meteorologist here in Houston. Frank Billingsley (OCM) had this to say...

Hey--I WELL remember when TD 10 fell apart and became a remnant
Low...then met up with a bit more energy and became TD12....then became
Katrina.
Never say die.

THAT B*TCH!!!
SHE REALLY WAS A MEAN AND DEADLY HURRICANE AND SURE DID SCREW UP SOME MINDS ON THIS FORUM AND STILL TO THIS DAY AND INTO THE FUTURE FOR A LONG TIME....

[Sjones]

Well...Jim Cantore on TWC just said on the Tropical Update that it's Dead...nothing much left...guess we shall see

[Ivanhater]

Looks like I go away for a few hours and the board is all backwards. Usually, you're all talking up development and I'm countering your arguments. Tonight I see the convection has diminished (as I suspected it would with the rapid movement) but I still think it has a good chance of developing once it slows down, and it will slow down on Saturday. Don't read too much into the NHC outlook, they're just basically talking about development potential through tomorrow, which is lower. But such a vigorous wave will generate a burst of convection once it slows down and convergence increases significantly.

One other factor to consider - the best chance for development is Saturday - my one day off this week. So it HAS to develop on Saturday.

Oh come on..I just moved on with my life ...well work tomorrow anyway..and..Its pay day!

[weatherguru18]

*snippit from e-mail*

I intern with a meteorologist here in Houston. Frank Billingsley (OCM) had this to say...

Hey--I WELL remember when TD 10 fell apart and became a remnant
Low...then met up with a bit more energy and became TD12....then became
Katrina.
Never say die.

THAT B*TCH!!!
SHE REALLY WAS A MEAN AND DEADLY HURRICANE AND SURE DID SCREW UP SOME MINDS ON THIS FORUM AND STILL TO THIS DAY AND INTO THE FUTURE FOR A LONG TIME....

Why don't you tell us how you really feel?

[astrosbaseball22]

*snippit from e-mail*

I intern with a meteorologist here in Houston. Frank Billingsley (OCM) had this to say...

Hey--I WELL remember when TD 10 fell apart and became a remnant
Low...then met up with a bit more energy and became TD12....then became
Katrina.
Never say die.

i got the same one

[Sanibel]

Yeppers, a few weeks ago I said to watch for systems that look like they are forming and then dry out like 2006. If 99 doesn't burst soon it got eaten up by similar conditions to Chris last year. This is the year of the satellite fake-out for now. Only difference is the ITCZ is pumping out waves that should eventually take.

This could still burst, but from the looks of it no. This is a real lesson this year in busted waves.

[astrosbaseball22]

10 news is on

[weatherguru18]

*snippit from e-mail*

I intern with a meteorologist here in Houston. Frank Billingsley (OCM) had this to say...

Hey--I WELL remember when TD 10 fell apart and became a remnant
Low...then met up with a bit more energy and became TD12....then became
Katrina.
Never say die.

i got the same one

What did you get...an e-mail? Do you know Frank?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Is Billingsley a professional met? I had the impression he was a RTF type major in college and then did a one year program at MSU in broadcast meteorology. So I thought he was like a para-professional met.


Now, Dr. Frank on KHOU has a PhD and used to be the head guy at NHC.

The KPRC-TV weather department definitely has a bigger budget.



BTW, and OT, Elizabeth Scarborough on KPRC is the daughter of longtime WNBC anchor Chuck Scarborough. I imagine Dr. Frank Fields, who was an eye doctor, not a met, has probably retired since my family moved to Texas three decades ago. My Dad, now deceased, worked with Harold Taft, also now deceased, at American Airlines before Taft got into radio and TV weather (KXAS in Ft Worth) . Don't know if they still do, but AA used to have an entire Met department. My dad talked me out of studying that because he said they weren't paid all that well at AA