Global Models Thread for 90L

[KFDM Meteorologist]

¡Aye Caramba!

Need 500 map for that time..

[Ed Mahmoud]

Northwest towward the weakness over Georgia, or into the Gulf and up towards MSY or MOB towards the back side of the 500 mb ridge?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

To close for comfort!!!!!

[x-y-no]

Jan,what is the intensity shown in 7 days?

Nothing spectacular - 1004mb.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

GFS had the High west of Texas building back hopefully to protect us here in Texas.

[vacanechaser]

WOW... looks like the gfs may be on to something.... looks like interesting times ahead... now it seems we have 90l for the caribbean, we will be very busy the next week or so...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Ed Mahmoud]

WOW... looks like the gfs may be on to something.... looks like interesting times ahead... now it seems we have 90l for the caribbean, we will be very busy the next week or so...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

90L won't be a Caribbean system for a week. It is the fresh from Africa system. 55 knots by SHIPS in 5 days, about a day East of the islands

[Ed Mahmoud]

While a TS or Cat 1 might be exciting, I just spend serious money on the house and roof, and therefore I hereby declare, in the power not invested in me by nobody, nothing that develops off the Cape Verdes is permitted w/i 200 miles of Houston/Galveston.

[storms in NC]

Right at Miami on the 21st

Looks like a ride up the coast from that one. I wouldn't put all my eggs in one basket right now. It will change OH to many times

[vacanechaser]

WOW... looks like the gfs may be on to something.... looks like interesting times ahead... now it seems we have 90l for the caribbean, we will be very busy the next week or so...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

90L won't be a Caribbean system for a week. It is the fresh from Africa system. 55 knots by SHIPS in 5 days, about a day East of the islands

yep... read something wrong there... brainfart... lol.. was just getting ready to correct that... thanx....

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFS had the High west of Texas building back hopefully to protect us here in Texas.

It's comforting now, but it is also well over 10 days out and a lot can change in that timeframe. Looks like this has a higher than normal potential to hit somewhere though, and not be a fish like we all wanted it to be.

[flwxwatcher]

WOW... looks like the gfs may be on to something.... looks like interesting times ahead... now it seems we have 90l for the caribbean, we will be very busy the next week or so...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Yes. the GFS did catch on to this system well. So far this season it has not been developing too many waves like it had a tendency to do in past years. That title resides with the CMC. Which btw had a ROFL 12 Z run

[Wx_Warrior]

You can pray for a fish but this one as the US on it's mind!

[storms in NC]

You can pray for a fish but this one as the US on it's mind!

Think we need to watch the Island first. We have alot of people on them on the board here.

[Brent]

The Euro track is a lot more ominous than the GFS because it doesn't go over the tall mountains of Hispanola. That could be the difference between a much weaker storm and a very strong hurricane.

[El Nino]

The Euro track is a lot more ominous than the GFS because it doesn't go over the tall mountains of Hispanola. That could be the difference between a much weaker storm and a very strong hurricane.

The more important thing is that if he'll go into the GOM where SST is very high. And, unfortunately, all the models are showing for the moment this potentially dangerous track.

[cycloneye]

What happened to NOGAPS? Its the loner for no development?

[shortwave]

anyone know the exact margin of error for location and strength 10 days out? a bit hungover to look it up at the moment..lol

[brunota2003]

anyone know the exact margin of error for location and strength 10 days out? a bit hungover to look it up at the moment..lol

5 Categories (plus TS, TD, and nothing) and anywhere from the Atlantic to Central America...hope that helps.

[Extremeweatherguy]

anyone know the exact margin of error for location and strength 10 days out? a bit hungover to look it up at the moment..lol

The average 5-day track error from the NHC last year was just under 300 nautical miles ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/OFCL_ATL_trk_error_trend_noTDs.gif )...and that was for developed systems. The current error for an undevloped system at 10+ days could easily be up to 700-1000+ nautical miles. lol. Basically it is a crap shoot.

The only thing we can really say for sure right now is that over the next 3-5 days this should remain on a generally westward course under the bermuda high to it's north.