Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[Vortex]

GFS 9/16 00Z rolling in...

[jhamps10]

830 TWD:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE N CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER HAITI
COVERING THE AREA FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO CENTRAL CUBA AND
EXTENDING N INTO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE N GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN PRODUCING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN
THIS UPPER RIDGE AND AND THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER HAITI TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N TO
THE COAST OF HONDURAS BETWEEN 84W-87W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES
THE S CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO OVER
CENTRAL NICARAGUA PRODUCING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER
RIDGE AND AND THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER HAITI TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N W OF 80W TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF
13N TO INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA BETWEEN 69W-76W.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
AND JAMAICA HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AND DRIFT S INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS WHILE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER QUITE.

[southerngale]

Here is a full list of storms to impact the upper TX coastline after September 15th. I had originally posted this on a local weather board, but I figure it would fit well here too...

This list includes storms since 1900 only.

Rita (2005 [major]) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Ivan (2004) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

A very close call..Lili (2002) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Jerry (1989) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Felice (1970) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Cindy (1963) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1949 major Hurricane = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Remnants of 1947 Hurricane = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

A very close call...1943 Hurricane = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1940 tropical storm = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1938 tropical storm = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

A very close call...1932 tropical storm = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1912 Hurricane (technically the central TX coast) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

I am way too young to need reading glasses, but those are some TINY links!

[Recurve]

Actually sky its very similar to NOGAPS in the long range..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2007091512

Just saw that from this evening. Bah! From south Caribbean to south FL.

Carla sure took a tricky track, that little jog around the Yucatan.

[jhamps10]

looks like GFS thinks that our blob over NW colombia is going to be our system...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_012s.gif

[jhamps10]

24 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

[jhamps10]

36 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thank you everyone for posting these model links.
It is very helpful in understanding the factors involved.

[jhamps10]

500 h-42:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_042l.gif

[AJC3]

Here is a full list of storms to impact the upper TX coastline after September 15th. I had originally posted this on a local weather board, but I figure it would fit well here too...

This list includes storms after 1900 only.

Rita (2005 [major]) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Ivan (2004) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
A very close call..Lili (2002) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Jerry (1989) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Felice (1970) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Cindy (1963) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
1949 major Hurricane = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Remnants of 1947 Hurricane = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
A very close call...1943 Hurricane = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
1940 tropical storm = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
1938 tropical storm = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
A very close call...1932 tropical storm = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
1912 Hurricane (technically the central TX coast) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

*Font changed so us 40-somethings can read the links*

[jhamps10]

I need some help from someone that has more knowledge than I do, but it looks like the GFS does not move this low at all out to hour 54.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

[jhamps10]

500 mb at 54 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No strengthing at all in 54 hours...Also no movement. It would not suprize me if its a sheared system, it seems like 6/9 of the storms this season have been sheared or sheared half to death.

[jhamps10]

66hrs, guess what folks, open wave:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

66hrs, guess what folks, open wave:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

Yeah, the gfs is backing off.

[jhamps10]

h66 500mb:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif

still shows a good swirl on here, signs of a low so I don't know why it isn't showing on the surface maps. and it is not a ULL either I don't think

[jhamps10]

it's BACK....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

[jhamps10]

90:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

[jhamps10]

108:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

[jhamps10]

500 mb 108 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108l.gif