2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[aspen]

While the GoM is far cooler than normal and the Carribean isn't as broiling as a few weeks ago, overall, the Atlantic is quite warm for the first half of October. Both the MDR and Caribbean are running about 0.5C above average, and the region north of the GAs and around the Bahamas is just as warm. If SSTs like these keep up for the next few weeks, we could easily see at least one MDR system (like what the GFS, Euro, and Icon have been showing), and perhaps one or two more home-grown majors.

[aspen]

A breakdown of the Atlantic's current SSTs. The Gulf is warm but below-average, the Gulf coast is far too cold for RI-until-landfall systems, much of the Western Atlantic is extremely warm (>28.5C), and the mid-latitudes are pretty decent as well.

[ElectricStorm]

A breakdown of the Atlantic's current SSTs. The Gulf is warm but below-average, the Gulf coast is far too cold for RI-until-landfall systems, much of the Western Atlantic is extremely warm (>28.5C), and the mid-latitudes are pretty decent as well.
https://i.imgur.com/VcEqqmy.png

Yeah I have a feeling that Delta may not be the only major in the west Caribbean this month

[Deshaunrob17]

I can’t believe how insanely active the Gulf has been this year. I know most of us were expecting a generally west-focused season, but wow, the Gulf has been a near record hot spot for activity. Cristobal, Hanna, Laura, Marco, Sally, Beta, and now Delta have all intensified in the Gulf and impacted somewhere on the coast, and there have been so many storms that there’ll probably be almost no ocean heat left to support anything once Delta is finished. It’s like this season is using every last drop of potential the Gulf has. Hopefully Delta will be the last storm there for this season, and thanks to the cold front, there won’t by any more RI hurricane landfalls like Hanna, Laura, and Sally.

One thing I find remarkable is that, in their July forecast, Accuweather talked about uneasy feeling for the Northern Gulf this year. That was spot on!!!

[Deshaunrob17]

This year really reminds of 2008 and 2005!!!! It's a sort of a blend of the two years....
The Eastern Caribbean had little to not activity- just like 2005 and 2008. Emily was an excption
Systems that formed in the MDR ended up being fishes- just like 2005 and 2005. Again excepting Emily
The Yucatan area was very busy just like 2005
The Gulf of Mexico very busy like both years.
Majority of the East Coast was affected by a tropical cyclone - 2008
The only difference ill say is systems formed anywhere in the MDR this year. This year had more sporadic MDR development than both years.

[gatorcane]

Interesting how the NAO is now shown to be going neutral to positive after going quite negative.

[aspen]

One thing I’m very surprised we haven’t seen at all this year is one of those wacky long-tracking mid-latitude STCs/hurricanes. 2005 had a lot of those (Franklin, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Vince, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta), and other recent active seasons had their fair share of them too — 2012 (Michael and Nadine), 2018 (Leslie and Oscar), and 2019 (Pablo).

[TheStormExpert]

One thing I’m very surprised we haven’t seen at all this year is one of those wacky long-tracking mid-latitude STCs/hurricanes. 2005 had a lot of those (Franklin, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Vince, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta), and other recent active seasons had their fair share of them too — 2012 (Michael and Nadine), 2018 (Leslie and Oscar), and 2019 (Pablo).

Unless you count Paulette.

[aspen]

One thing I’m very surprised we haven’t seen at all this year is one of those wacky long-tracking mid-latitude STCs/hurricanes. 2005 had a lot of those (Franklin, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Vince, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta), and other recent active seasons had their fair share of them too — 2012 (Michael and Nadine), 2018 (Leslie and Oscar), and 2019 (Pablo).

Unless you count Paulette.

I guess, but it spent far more time as a persistent disturbance than a wandering mid-latitude TC.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1314393607902654464



 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1314405521147875328



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1314954210958548993



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1314280299505876993

[aspen]

I think I speak for most of us when I say I’m very surprised the MDR turned out to be below-average in terms of ACE, despite the pre-season signals for an active MDR. Yeah, we did get many MDR storms and a ridiculous AEW train, but overall ACE was suppressed by two things we didn’t anticipate: the ITCZ being so far north, and THREE recurving typhoons contributing to a massive TUTT right during the heart of the season.

At least we didn’t get a hyper-destructive, extremely intense long-tracker like what 2017 and 2004 had in abundance, although some more C3-5 fish storms like Julia ‘10 and Katia ‘11 would’ve been nice.

[storminabox]

:uarrow: I think I speak for most of us when I say I’m very surprised the MDR turned out to be below-average in terms of ACE, despite the pre-season signals for an active MDR. Yeah, we did get many MDR storms and a ridiculous AEW train, but overall ACE was suppressed by two things we didn’t anticipate: the ITCZ being so far north, and THREE recurving typhoons contributing to a massive TUTT right during the heart of the season.

At least we didn’t get a hyper-destructive, extremely intense long-tracker like what 2017 and 2004 had in abundance, although some more C3-5 fish storms like Julia ‘10 and Katia ‘11 would’ve been nice.

Just goes to show how pre season signals don’t tell the whole story, and how in-situ evolutions in the pattern often have the greatest impact in what actually unfolds. In short, It wouldn’t have taken much for the MDR to have featured far more formidable activity, increasing the overall ACE of the season perhaps substantially. At the time that the wave train was there, the favorable pattern was not.

[Shell Mound]

:uarrow: I think I speak for most of us when I say I’m very surprised the MDR turned out to be below-average in terms of ACE, despite the pre-season signals for an active MDR. Yeah, we did get many MDR storms and a ridiculous AEW train, but overall ACE was suppressed by two things we didn’t anticipate: the ITCZ being so far north, and THREE recurving typhoons contributing to a massive TUTT right during the heart of the season.

At least we didn’t get a hyper-destructive, extremely intense long-tracker like what 2017 and 2004 had in abundance, although some more C3-5 fish storms like Julia ‘10 and Katia ‘11 would’ve been nice.

Just goes to show how pre season signals don’t tell the whole story, and how in-situ evolutions in the pattern often have the greatest impact in what actually unfolds. In short, It wouldn’t have taken much for the MDR to have featured far more formidable activity, increasing the overall ACE of the season perhaps substantially. At the time that the wave train was there, the favorable pattern was not.

Had the MDR yielded even near-average ACE, it would have placed 2020 just below hyperactive status, given ACE generated elsewhere. I am fully convinced that if the MDR were to have featured above-average ACE, then 2020 would have been a top-five season in terms of seasonal ACE. Only the TUTT really prevented 2020 from attaining its rank among the most hyperactive seasons on record. The VWS over the MDR/Caribbean during peak season was simply very atypical of La Niña. By all measures this season should have produced several long-tracking majors as well as the homegrown, west-based activity we’ve witnessed so far. Aside from shear, all the other indicators solidly favoured a truly hyperactive, even historic, season. Thanks to the shear, however, 2020 has mainly delivered in terms of sheer numbers, not ACE. I still believe that this season could have easily matched 1933 and/or 2005 in terms of ACE had the MDR simply behaved more line with climatology for similarly favourable setups.

[SconnieCane]

:uarrow: I think I speak for most of us when I say I’m very surprised the MDR turned out to be below-average in terms of ACE, despite the pre-season signals for an active MDR. Yeah, we did get many MDR storms and a ridiculous AEW train, but overall ACE was suppressed by two things we didn’t anticipate: the ITCZ being so far north, and THREE recurving typhoons contributing to a massive TUTT right during the heart of the season.

At least we didn’t get a hyper-destructive, extremely intense long-tracker like what 2017 and 2004 had in abundance, although some more C3-5 fish storms like Julia ‘10 and Katia ‘11 would’ve been nice.

Just goes to show how pre season signals don’t tell the whole story, and how in-situ evolutions in the pattern often have the greatest impact in what actually unfolds. In short, It wouldn’t have taken much for the MDR to have featured far more formidable activity, increasing the overall ACE of the season perhaps substantially. At the time that the wave train was there, the favorable pattern was not.

Had the MDR yielded even near-average ACE, it would have placed 2020 just below hyperactive status, given ACE generated elsewhere. I am fully convinced that if the MDR were to have featured above-average ACE, then 2020 would have been a top-five season in terms of seasonal ACE. Only the TUTT really prevented 2020 from attaining its rank among the most hyperactive seasons on record. The VWS over the MDR/Caribbean during peak season was simply very atypical of La Niña. By all measures this season should have produced several long-tracking majors as well as the homegrown, west-based activity we’ve witnessed so far. Aside from shear, all the other indicators solidly favoured a truly hyperactive, even historic, season. Thanks to the shear, however, 2020 has mainly delivered in terms of sheer numbers, not ACE. I still believe that this season could have easily matched 1933 and/or 2005 in terms of ACE had the MDR simply behaved more line with climatology for similarly favourable setups.

Yes, I fully expected to spend the balance of September tracking at least 1-2 Ivan or Irma-caliber 40-70 ACE storms, and I doubt I'm the only one. We still might approach hyperactive ACE levels if the potential W. Caribbean major pans out plus 1 or 2 more storms throughout the rest of October/November.

[aspen]

Just goes to show how pre season signals don’t tell the whole story, and how in-situ evolutions in the pattern often have the greatest impact in what actually unfolds. In short, It wouldn’t have taken much for the MDR to have featured far more formidable activity, increasing the overall ACE of the season perhaps substantially. At the time that the wave train was there, the favorable pattern was not.

Had the MDR yielded even near-average ACE, it would have placed 2020 just below hyperactive status, given ACE generated elsewhere. I am fully convinced that if the MDR were to have featured above-average ACE, then 2020 would have been a top-five season in terms of seasonal ACE. Only the TUTT really prevented 2020 from attaining its rank among the most hyperactive seasons on record. The VWS over the MDR/Caribbean during peak season was simply very atypical of La Niña. By all measures this season should have produced several long-tracking majors as well as the homegrown, west-based activity we’ve witnessed so far. Aside from shear, all the other indicators solidly favoured a truly hyperactive, even historic, season. Thanks to the shear, however, 2020 has mainly delivered in terms of sheer numbers, not ACE. I still believe that this season could have easily matched 1933 and/or 2005 in terms of ACE had the MDR simply behaved more line with climatology for similarly favourable setups.

Yes, I fully expected to spend the balance of September tracking at least 1-2 Ivan or Irma-caliber 40-70 ACE storms, and I doubt I'm the only one. We still might approach hyperactive ACE levels if the potential W. Caribbean major pans out plus 1 or 2 more storms throughout the rest of October/November.

Me too. What prevented that was the rather north ITCZ, and especially the TUTT pumped by a trio of Cat 3+ typhoons. Nobody expected that because prior to Bavi, Maysak, and Hasihen, the WPac was extremely inactive. If the TUTT wasn’t there, Paulette could’ve become a 20-30 ACE Cat 4, and Rene probably would’ve become a hurricane.

[TheStormExpert]

This season had even more potential to become a one of a kind blockbuster season in terms of ACE if it wasn't for the unfavorable Tropical Atlantic. Still was one heck of a season with 25 named storms so far and a twenty sixth likely on the way. But hurricanes and major hurricane numbers could've been higher.

Though it is interesting to note most forecasting agencies did forecast anywhere from 7-12 hurricanes, with anywhere from 3-6 majors. So far we've had 25/9/3 respectively.

[toad strangler]

ACE is a overrated metric to use as a sole determination when analyzing the output of a season. Is it a interesting and useful metric? Yes, for sure. But it's being mis used IMO.

[aspen]

This season had even more potential to become a one of a kind blockbuster season in terms of ACE if it wasn't for the unfavorable Tropical Atlantic. Still was one heck of a season with 25 named storms so far and a twenty sixth likely on the way. But hurricanes and major hurricane numbers could've been higher.

Though it is interesting to note most forecasting agencies did forecast anywhere from 7-12 hurricanes, with anywhere from 3-6 majors. So far we've had 25/9/3 respectively.

While 2020 will exceed all of the NS predictions, it’ll likely finish well within the H/MH predictions, even the more aggressive ones from the mid-season predictions. It should also finish up within the pre-season ACE predictions (110-160 ACE); it’s currently at 120 ACE and the Caribbean system alone could produce anywhere from 10 to 40, depending on peak intensity and whether or not it stalls down there for some time.

[cycloneye]

Above average on week two says CSU.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1316390633305563137

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/SteveBowenWx/status/1314707646570811392