2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Hammy]

I'd hold this thought until the end of season--people said the same in 2016 all the way up until Matthew formed.

That year, much like this year, had dry air issues throughout the season (for different reasons though, as 2016 came off of a super strong El Nino so it was bound to be not completely favorable) and had a similarly warm sst anomaly profile. In fact, I think 2016 was pretty impressive considering three of its MHs happened after September 25, and produced one roughly 50 ACE hurricane. It was a pretty backloaded year, kind of like a very light version of 2020

2016 had an active August though


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August is not an indicator of September or the rest of the season, given even the most active seasons have been limited to the last week or so of the month. 2013 comparison are made very literally every single hurricane season and every year is "2013 all over again" until all of a sudden, without warning, it isn't. The season may bust still (the setup with the geography isn't quite favorable, but we'll see what the rest of September and October bring) but 2013 had a very unique set of circumstances with the thermohaline circulation, that were not present this year. But this bit is interesting:

Another good thread

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1566106533032710145?s=21&t=dFn1LtWXOrUnl4XKe_kmDQ


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The monsoon trough is something I've been looking at for most of the season, but it seems I got it partially right, as the orientation (rather than simply the location) sucking dry air into the tropics makes a lot of sense.

[skyline385]

That year, much like this year, had dry air issues throughout the season (for different reasons though, as 2016 came off of a super strong El Nino so it was bound to be not completely favorable) and had a similarly warm sst anomaly profile. In fact, I think 2016 was pretty impressive considering three of its MHs happened after September 25, and produced one roughly 50 ACE hurricane. It was a pretty backloaded year, kind of like a very light version of 2020

2016 had an active August though


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August is not an indicator of September or the rest of the season, given even the most active seasons have been limited to the last week or so of the month. 2013 comparison are made very literally every single hurricane season and every year is "2013 all over again" until all of a sudden, without warning, it isn't. The season may bust still (the setup with the geography isn't quite favorable, but we'll see what the rest of September and October bring) but 2013 had a very unique set of circumstances with the thermohaline circulation, that were not present this year. But this bit is interesting:

Another good thread

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1566106533032710145?s=21&t=dFn1LtWXOrUnl4XKe_kmDQ


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The monsoon trough is something I've been looking at for most of the season, but it seems I got it partially right, as the orientation (rather than simply the location) sucking dry air into the tropics makes a lot of sense.

Never mentioned 2013 in my post and i said a few posts ago that not everyone here expects 2013 level busts every year. I still think we will hit average levels of activity this year.

And I agree that August is not an indicator of September but getting no systems in August (not even a TD) in a La Nina year is extremely rare and not something to be dismissed.


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[Stormcenter]

But I thought Global Warming was going to continue cause more powerful hurricanes to develop every season?

It just makes you wonder if anyone truely will ever figure out the weather. I honestly don't think so.

[Steve]

I don’t know about busts or any agenda driven ideas for the season. It seems like it’s progressing as it would have with the factors that are in place. Maybe things aren’t conventional, and there have been fewer opportunities for storms to form due to the slow westward propagation, dry air that was around, anomalous waters in the NW Atlantic, etc. it should have been obvious from a couple weeks back that we would have a couple to a few storms in the early part of September and be to E/F/G storm by the peak and probably I or J by the end of the month. Pay attention to the MJO forecast trends by late week as they should give a hint as to weeks 3 and 4 in September and what we might see. As I always say, you have to have players on the field to get development, and if waves are slower to get across there will be fewer opportunities for systems of tropical origin to form in the western basin. It’s still hot off the Mexican Riviera so don’t be surprised to see a decent storm rake the coast and come inland in Southern California or Arizona next week. I’m also thinking a system at the right place and time could get pulled into the Canadian Maritimes before mid October.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1566300713986265088

[LarryWx]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1566300713986265088

 The switch has already flipped. From no TCs for 2 months to two at the same time. From no ACE for 2 months to near or above average ACE, which looks to likely continue at least toward mid month. So, Derek can't be wrong from my perspective as he's already right.

[tolakram]

Stay on topic for THIS season please.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think it might have been skyline and several other S2K users who hinted at caution regarding this possibility...but I am glad I am not the only one who is thinking along similar lines.

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1566116569255641088

[Teban54]

I think it might have been skyline and several other S2K users who hinted at caution regarding this possibility...but I am glad I am not the only one who is thinking along similar lines.

https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1566116569255641088

While that's a concern, so far all waves and all modeled waves recurve way before they reach the islands even without development, much like 94L and the 0/20 AOI. Though I imagine that may change in late September and October (see 2020 for an extreme example).

[aspen]

12z ICON has a party in the Atlantic in about a week. Both the 9/4 and 9/6 waves develop, with the former getting close to and seemingly impacting the track of Earl. This is the first time the ICON has down development of the 9/6 wave, which the CMC dropped for a while.

Edit: wrong thread, can someone move this to the models thread?

[LarryWx]

Just looking at Danielle and Earl, alone, per the NHC progs and extending further out, ACE for just about every day through Sept 12 is likely to be above normal at least through then meaning at or above normal ACE days through a good portion of peak season. And this doesn't include any other TC that may develop. If Earl becomes a major (now forecasted), it alone will generate 4+ per day for those days, which would be at a minimum 160% of the highest ACE average for any day for 1991-2020, which is 2.5 (Sept 15th).

Per 1991-2020 averages, Sep 1-15 average ACE is 33. 2022 could easily end up 40+ for Sep 1-15. That would be quite an impressive turnaround. If Earl were to become a major on 9/8 and remain that way for several days, a 50+ ACE for Sep 1-15 would not just be a remote possibility, especially considering what else may be out there. I'm still at 120 ACE for this season and 6 NS this month.

[WiscoWx02]

I’m going to be cautiously embracing the fact that maybe just mayyyyyyyybeeeeeee this is some sort of switch flip happening…I’m still not expecting anything fancy or crazy out of it…October and November could be the main show but like I said…I’m being cautious about saying this.

[Ntxw]

Just looking at Danielle and Earl, alone, per the NHC progs and extending further out, ACE for just about every day through Sept 12 is likely to be above normal at least through then meaning at or above normal ACE days through a good portion of peak season. And this doesn't include any other TC that may develop. If Earl becomes a major (now forecasted), it alone will generate 4+ per day for those days, which would be at a minimum 160% of the highest ACE average for any day for 1991-2020, which is 2.5 (Sept 15th).

Per 1991-2020 averages, Sep 1-15 average ACE is 33. 2022 could easily end up 40+ for Sep 1-15. That would be quite an impressive turnaround. If Earl were to become a major on 9/8 and remain that way for several days, a 50+ ACE for Sep 1-15 would not just be a remote possibility, especially considering what else may be out there. I'm still at 120 ACE for this season and 6 NS this month.

Danielle has produced 6.6 units of ACE. Its current forecast would generate another ~6 units.

Earl has 1.8 units and current forecast yields anywhere from 6-10 units. After 120H it may be transitioning extratropical in very high latitude. So guessing ~15-20 units, more if it gets significantly stronger than current forecast.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1566883839347200003

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1566883839347200003

The question is not if, it's when. It's going to happen.

It also appears that the 'big one' will be part of the backloaded part of hurricane season as well.

[St0rmTh0r]

as I and many others thought, the season would be delayed because of the ongoing la nina conditions that also contributed to the shutdown of the 21 season. The anomolaus warming in the north atlantic combined with the record breaking heat in the UK attributed to the unusual amount of dry air and wave braking seen this year. We are seeing record breaking heat in the west the cause of which is unknown but has to be associated with the continuous tropical activity in the EP despite ongoing la nina conditions. This is why weve seen el nino esque jet streams screaming wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical atlantic. In the few analogs we have on 3rd year la ninas we see hurricane activity is delayed until the mid Sept-Nov timeframe. Weve seen this with August going with 0-0. As if right on cue the formations of hurricane Danielle and tropical storm earl may signal the beginning of the change over to peak season conditions/MJO P1&2 /background la nina state. And a hyper active peak that lasts into October. I called for 11 named storms in September and while that is on the high side I believe we could get close. Steering favors recurves, but all it takes is a couple to make it past that could cause some problems later this fall.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1566756118520553477

[skyline385]

Agree with him, still haven't seen the switch flip expected of a hyperactive season

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1567092313213599747

[NDG]

Agree with him, still haven't seen the switch flip expected of a hyperactive season

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1567092313213599747?s=20&t=KIOEPDQsRaOnRBQxPxcRug

Most dropped the phrase "hyperactive season" at least a month ago, the words in question are "above average" season.

[toad strangler]

Agree with him, still haven't seen the switch flip expected of a hyperactive season

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1567092313213599747?s=20&t=KIOEPDQsRaOnRBQxPxcRug

Sometimes the light flickers before turning on completely when wiring (overall conditions) are loose.