Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[KWT]

Convection with the African wave has weakened a little but it is a good deal further north then recent waves, wil lbe interesting to see whether this wave dives WSW past 30W as previous waves have done. Not long before we have to take these waves far more seridously.

[cycloneye]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 122345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W S OF 15N BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA. SINCE YESTERDAY WAVE HAS NOW PASSED W
OF DAKAR SENEGAL AND IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. IN ADDITION...THE
SSMI-DERIVED TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE
IN THIS AREA. MOST DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS
DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-14N REMAINING.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[cycloneye]

880
AXNT20 KNHC 131739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL IS APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WHERE NE WINDS
ARE BLOWING AT THIS TIME. IT AXIS IS ALONG 23W S OF 17N MOVING W
10-15 KT. A FEW CELLS ARE NOTED WHERE THE TROPICAL WAVE MEETS
THE ITCZ WITH A BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS JUST BEHIND THE WAVE
AXIS. SFC DATA...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE SSMI-DERIVED TPW
SUPPORT THE POSITION OF THE WAVE AXIS.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[HURAKAN]

New wave coming out of Africa.

[cycloneye]

There is a nice complex of convection emerging West Africa.But for sure will go poof soon.

[Gustywind]

There is a nice complex of convection emerging West Africa.But for sure will go poof soon.

Unhopefully yeah Cycloneye, but it's matter of time to see theses awesome waves gaining some power, but how decents they are for this season , and we'ere only in June every week we have something a consistant wave... amazing debuts, and i appreciate my friends for the beauty of the colors on my screen!!!
It's a promising season in spite of the no conducives conditions just.... for the moment!

[cycloneye]

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 9N25W 8N30W 4N42W 2N50W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EMERGED FROM AFRICA
THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE.
HOWEVER...AWAITING NEW DATA FOR MORE EVIDENCE. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9N14W
TO 8N17W.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Meso]

I wonder if that wave is the one that the euro is showing

A little low with it...The GFS showed a wave emerging off africa this weekend developing in one of it's previous runs I think.Could also be a wave after it though

[KWT]

That may well be that wave Meso, can't think what other wave that could be. Very impressive convective mass though coming off Africa yet again though, interesting stuff!

[cycloneye]

Looking good for now.Enjoy it while it lasts.

[Gustywind]

But for sure will go poof soon

[HURAKAN]

[Normandy]

Thats a pretty good wave for July...if it were later into Cape Verde season that wave would have potential to get named.

[KWT]

Well convection is still deep and strong at 6z at nearly 25W. We will have to see how it copes over the next 24hrs, I think its likely that it will weaken from now onwards but it is indeed an impressive wave for the time of year, to be fair just like previous waves from Africa as well.

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 150559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N14W TO 08N30W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 16W AND 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10W AND
25W WITH CYCLONIC TURNING INDICATED AT 07N17W WITH MAY TURN OUT
TO THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 09N34W TO 04N48W...AND ELSEWHERE S OF THE ITCZ TO 02S
BETWEEN 33W AND 45W.

[rahan]

It's looking pretty good this morning but I'm sure it will poof. I really want a fishy storm for some swell

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO BE ALONG 18.5W FROM 05N TO 13N
BASED ON CYCLONIC TURNING ON THIS MORNINGS VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. Here's our next player, hope for sure will go poof soon once again, or conditions will be more conducive time will but i bet for a poof trip
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 33W-34W FROM 06N TO 19N AND MOVING W AT ESTIMATED 20 KT WITH A CLASSIC INVERTED V CLOUD
PATTERN. DUST IS OBSERVED ON THIS MORNINGS VISIBLE IMAGERY E OF
THE ANALYZED WAVE POSITION. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING UNDER
DRY AIR ALOFT...AND THE LARGE AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS THAT
ACCOMPANIED THE WAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY BUT IS STILL EVIDENT WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N-13N.
we continue with ours train of waves...

[cycloneye]

[Meso]

Very good looking wave.CMC is showing a wave coming off in the next few days developing a low and trekking west and maintaining the low..One of the waves are bound to hold up some time soon.Even if it is middle of June,but conditions aren't that hostile


There is some SAL to the north,but any following wave may help this wave with that


Shear

[Hyperstorm]

This system will not do anything significant because it is moving way too fast and embedded within the ITCZ, which is very typical early in the season. This should not allow it to congeal. Still though, this is a fairly important system for this time of year in this area in a fairly low shear environment.

Possibly a sign of an early start to the Cape Verde season by mid-late July...