Possible development east of Lesser Antilles,model runs here

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... 4km_visir2

To me it looks like a line of convergence in the ITCZ.

[wxman57]

That area of "nothing" at 45W appears to be organizing.

Don't count your chickens too quickly. If you look at the 850mb winds you'll see that this wave is moving into significantly-increasing wind flow in the lower levels (i.e., divergence). This should reduce the thunderstorms as it reaches the east Caribbean.

The place to watch is the wave axis along 28W that's going to be interacting with the storms west of 30W over the next few days. That moisture loop above shows a low beginning to form around 28-30W. Not much convection yet, but it, unlike the wave along 45W, is in an areas of lesser easterly wind flow at the surface - a much more favorable environment.

[kpost]

I saw this on another site



It does show an enclosed low.

I am new, so what does this mean, i have been noticing the models for a few days but i couldn't figure out which wave was the one popping on those.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... 4km_visir2

To me it looks like a line of convergence in the ITCZ.

I don't have to try to hard to convince myself I see subtle rotation centered near 10ºN and 30ºW, with apparent West to East low cloud motion just South of there.

It is still kind of caught up in the ITCZ, but a lot of the recent East Pac invests took a few days to detangle from the ITCZ. And the longer this takes to break away to the North, the less distance it has to recurve before encountering some kind of land mass.

[kpost]

this is another model i found that was the easiest to work with
http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=TA

on 7/22/08 it has it looking really strong

[Ed Mahmoud]

this is another model i found that was the easiest to work with
http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=TA

on 7/22/08 it has it looking really strong

Maine is doomed! Ok, probably not.

[Ed Mahmoud]

That area of "nothing" at 45W appears to be organizing.

Don't count your chickens too quickly. If you look at the 850mb winds you'll see that this wave is moving into significantly-increasing wind flow in the lower levels (i.e., divergence). This should reduce the thunderstorms as it reaches the east Caribbean.

The place to watch is the wave axis along 28W that's going to be interacting with the storms west of 30W over the next few days. That moisture loop above shows a low beginning to form around 28-30W. Not much convection yet, but it, unlike the wave along 45W, is in an areas of lesser easterly wind flow at the surface - a much more favorable environment.

While it never develops, GFS moves it towards the Gulf as a healthy and rain laden tropical wave, and last week's sea breeze storms missed my yard. GFS loses it past 180 hours when its resolution drops, but I am running the sprinkler now, and a nice day long rain event next weekend would rock.

[wxman57]

That area of "nothing" at 45W appears to be organizing.

Don't count your chickens too quickly. If you look at the 850mb winds you'll see that this wave is moving into significantly-increasing wind flow in the lower levels (i.e., divergence). This should reduce the thunderstorms as it reaches the east Caribbean.

The place to watch is the wave axis along 28W that's going to be interacting with the storms west of 30W over the next few days. That moisture loop above shows a low beginning to form around 28-30W. Not much convection yet, but it, unlike the wave along 45W, is in an areas of lesser easterly wind flow at the surface - a much more favorable environment.

While it never develops, GFS moves it towards the Gulf as a healthy and rain laden tropical wave, and last week's sea breeze storms missed my yard. GFS loses it past 180 hours when its resolution drops, but I am running the sprinkler now, and a nice day long rain event next weekend would rock.

Might be able to get some rain along the Gulf Coast out of it, but that ridge overhead has been pretty strong.

[KatDaddy]

A nice rain event would be welcomed. It was mighty hot at Moody Gardens in Galveston today.

[KWT]

I think the main wave axis much further east then where a lot of people are watching probably now near 30W need to be watched the most, like wxman57 said its got a decent enough set-up to develop right now, though wehther it does is another matter. Still the GFS does seem to develop it.

Anyway I think this has got a far greater chance of being a threat to the Caribbean than Bertha IF it forms.

[KWT]

18z coming out right now:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

Obvious where the model will try and do something.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS keeps the system much further south than in previous runs...

Hour 156 = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif
^^Slamming into the eastern islands and entering the Caribbean.^^

---Model resolution and track accuracy is not as great beyond hour 180. Therefore, the path and strength depicted at these timeframes should be viewed more as "entertainment" and not be taken too seriously.---

Hour 180 = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif
^^Skirting just south of Puerto Rico.^^

Hour 216 = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif
^^Looks to be impacting Cuba.^^

Hour 240 = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif
^^Lifting north toward the Keys.^^

Hour 264 = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264l.gif
^^System in the SE Gulf impacting parts of FL.^^

Hour 288 = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif
^^System still hovering in the eastern Gulf.^^

Hour 324 = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_324l.gif
^^System starts to lift north towards FL Panhandle/Alabama.^^

[KWT]

Looks like it takes the storm killer track, right over the islands one after another, the only way to survive is to head to the gulf and do a Georges, problem is this won't be even close to that strength by that time I reckon.
Would probably cause a lot of intrest though. Takes a little while to get going on this run mind you and doesn't really develop much till about 50W. This is probably a more likely track given the GFS does seem to take systems too quickly off to the north before they form.

As it happens it track pretty damn close to Georges on this run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_312l.gif

[cycloneye]

For the first time GFS has tracking it into the GOM,Ed what do you make of this?

Whole loop, Gomers,watch this 18z GFS run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[jhamps10]

For the first time GFS has tracking it into the GOM,Ed what do you make of this?

Whole loop, Gomers,watch this 18z GFS run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

oh boy oil's gonna go up 15 bucks on monday morning if future runs continue with this.

anyway looking at it, it is a very close watcher, cause if it gets into the gulf, it's gonna hit someone as we all know.
looking at the loop, I think that the islands would kill it, or at least have it considerly weaker, I think the US should it develop needs to be totally on guard of this thing.

[Ivanhater]

Not liking that run..just have to see if it continues or if anything even forms...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I really don't take the GFS beyond its 180 hour lobotomy very seriously.

In my humble, amateur and unofficial opinion, which is not only not endorsed by Storm2K, it induces cringing and dandruff among the admins.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I do, however, get all excited when an off hour (6Z, 18Z) GFS at tau 336 shows precip over Houston with the 540 dm thickness line down over Corpus Christi.


It did verify, once, in December 2004.

[KWT]

The pattern the GFS has does past 144hrs does sugges tanything would just roll WNW, the key is firstly whether anything forms and then we have to consider the strength of the ridge and also whether Bertha or whatever is left continue to leave a weakness.

[cycloneye]

I would not take this as a given only because its the 18z which doesnt have all the information as the 00z and 12z have.The tonights 00z run will be very important to see if it continues with this track or otherwise,it goes another way.