Possible NW Gulf Development Late This Week?

[HouTXmetro]

looks like the rain is diminishing to our west and staying offshore. Houston may avoid any heavy rain or flooding.

[lrak]

Pressure at CC TX 29.80 and I just looked out the window and the LL clouds are still heading South down the beach. The whatever Low is still off CC TX coast...I think?

[lebron23]

my texas and Louisiana people make sure you check out the other thread for flood potential

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=96890&p=1923347#p1923347

[attallaman]

Fox Houston radar shows some red cells coming in off the Gulf now at Bolivar Peninsula, Galveston, and east of Freeport...maybe the rains will now commence! Got my fingers crossed.
http://www.myfoxhoustonlive.com/

You haven't received any rain? I can't say the same here, it's been off and on rain showers all morning but nobody has offered to tell me why there hasn't been any thunder or lightning here, just very heavy rains. Wxman57, can you answer that for me?

[srainhoutx]

HGX thoughts this late morning...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1130 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS SE TX. PWS REMAIN IN THE 2.1-2.2 INCH RANGE WITH 850
MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 16C. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS THE HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINS FOCUSED OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006 MB SFC LOW ON THE OUTER EDGE OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS OFF THE MIDDLE TX COAST...WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING WEST
AND EAST FROM THIS FEATURE. THIS SFC BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING
THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING AGAIN TODAY KEEPING TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 80S. THE GREATEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS NORTH AND EAST OF SE
TX. THERE IS AN 850 MB CONVERGENCE ZONE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA BUT
NOT MUCH DEVELOPMENT HAS FOCUSED ON IT AT THIS POINT. THINKING
THAT THE LIMITED HEATING AND LACK OF A SFC BOUNDARY WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SIDE
WITH ONLY ISOLATED HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SHIFT INLAND OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY/MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DROP SOMEWHAT...THE
PRESENCE OF A SFC FOCUS COUPLED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE
DAYTIME HEATING COULD ACTUALLY RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF HEAVY
RAIN ON THESE TWO DAYS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN ABOUT TIDE LEVELS. THE TIDE LEVEL AT
PLEASURE PIER PEAKED AT 3.5 FEET LAST EVENING. THE UPPER TX COAST
IS GOING INTO LOW TIDE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LOWER TIDE
LEVELS...THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY WHICH WILL LOWER THEM EVEN MORE.
SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY KIND OF A CFW.

WILL KEEP HIGH POPS IN PLACE THIS AFTN BUT WILL AGAIN DOWNPLAY THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HWO. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FFA ISSUANCE AS ANY
FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE OF THE MINOR LOCALIZED NATURE. THE CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE PLEASANT SIDE...WITH HIGHS 80 TO 83 MOST
LOCATIONS.

35

[weatherguy425]

The lack of lightning and thunder is probably due to the tropical nature of this rainmaker.

[wxman57]

Pressure at CC TX 29.80 and I just looked out the window and the LL clouds are still heading South down the beach. The whatever Low is still off CC TX coast...I think?

Yes, the low is wrapping up now about 50 miles to your northeast. Big mass of rain to my south (Houston) appears to be on track to miss us to the east. Only a light drizzle so far in southwest Houston. Not enough to wet the ground yet.

[weatherguy425]

wxman- while i agree that the "bulk" of the rain may head east, it appears that the stratiform rain is organizing and heading into the metro. Also, what do you think about future epesodes of rain in the next couple of days? this doesnt appear to be it does it?

[srainhoutx]

VIS Loop is showing the surface low very well now. Track will be very important as to who gets the heaviest rainfall...

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... &itype=vis

[Sanibel]

Seems to me that satellite confirms a Low controlled by the upper feature that has doomed formation of any surface feature by drawing dry air into it as is plainly visible in the loop.

[mpic]

Fox Houston radar shows some red cells coming in off the Gulf now at Bolivar Peninsula, Galveston, and east of Freeport...maybe the rains will now commence! Got my fingers crossed.
http://www.myfoxhoustonlive.com/

You haven't received any rain? I can't say the same here, it's been off and on rain showers all morning but nobody has offered to tell me why there hasn't been any thunder or lightning here, just very heavy rains. Wxman57, can you answer that for me?

Barely sprinkling just started. I'm located about 20 miles inland from Galveston and 4 miles west of the Bay. Nice sitting on the porch drinking coffee weather. Breeze is starting to pick up slightly....really like these lower temps!

[jasons2k]

I think we're having a lull for now, but I don't think we're out of the woods until that ULL moves out of here. It's still parked near Austin and not moving out fast.

[HouTXmetro]

Where is the surface low? It just looks like we are going to miss out in Houston. We didn't get that much rain yesterday. But enough I guess.

[srainhoutx]

Where is the surface low? It just looks like we are going to miss out in Houston. We didn't get that much rain yesterday. But enough I guess.

Just E of Corpus Christi and moving very slowy NNE IMHO. Too soon to say we have missed out in the Houston Metro Area. Remember the ECMWF has advertised for two days that this would stall inland and move slowly back off shore.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 121748
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS BEING ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[attallaman]

The heavy rain seems to be moving out of my area for now. Weather radar image courtesy of WWL TV4.COM, NOLA.


http://www.wwltv.com/weather/myownradar ... index.html

[mpic]

attallaman...same here. All the reds appear to be staying south and moving east...now under yellow. Nice steady light shower with a slight breeze. Perfect!

[jinftl]

Shear appears to be lowering in the western and central gulf, except right along the northern gulf coast

[attallaman]

This was such a blessing for S. TX, I hope you guys up north don't get too much. Enjoy the rain!

forgot about the trade off

What's with that graphic? I seem to be missing something here. What's with the large mosquito or whatever that is and the baby?

[mpic]

That, my friend, is a Texas mosquito!