2013 WPAC Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3861
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#341 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Nov 26, 2013 3:23 am

What do you think was one of the most UNPREDICTABLE storms ever?

What strong storm came without model support?

I wanna hear it because I only joined storm2k during Bopha.

Thanks.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

euro6208

Re:

#342 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 26, 2013 11:23 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:What do you think was one of the most UNPREDICTABLE storms ever?

What strong storm came without model support?

I wanna hear it because I only joined storm2k during Bopha.

Thanks.


Been here since 2004 and i can honestly say that I don't know. :lol:

It's like every strong storm wants to get recognize. Just when you think a storm did something incredible, the next storm and next storms outperforms . It's like a domino effect.

Storms here are so unpredictable and they seem to arrive in bunches that my mind is so out of place right now after haiyan :lol:

Maybe someone else can answer your last question...
0 likes   

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3861
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: Re:

#343 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Nov 27, 2013 3:15 am

euro6208 wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:What do you think was one of the most UNPREDICTABLE storms ever?

What strong storm came without model support?

I wanna hear it because I only joined storm2k during Bopha.

Thanks.


Been here since 2004 and i can honestly say that I don't know. :lol:

It's like every strong storm wants to get recognize. Just when you think a storm did something incredible, the next storm and next storms outperforms . It's like a domino effect.

Storms here are so unpredictable and they seem to arrive in bunches that my mind is so out of place right now after haiyan :lol:

Maybe someone else can answer your last question...

00 GMT: GFS develops a strong tropical storm [100 km/h or more] to make landfall over Northern Visayas on Dec 13.

I am worried for the people over the Visayas that is storm might ruin their [our] Christmas. I want them to have an enjoyable Christmas. GOD BLESS!
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3468
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#344 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Nov 27, 2013 10:51 am

The phantom TS disappeared on the 06z GFS run. That's the thing about model storms in long range (300+ hours) forecast...now you see it, now you don't :lol: I pay attention when it's been shown for at least 4 or 5 consecutive runs.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

euro6208

Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#345 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 28, 2013 1:06 pm

Pretty active year with 33 tropical cyclones...
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2907
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

#346 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Dec 01, 2013 1:03 pm

I personally think the WPAC season 2013 might be drawing to a close. I find it hard to spawn even a minimal typhoon in December, when conditions go unfavourable because of winter. I'd say probably one or two tropical storms this month, at most. No more major typhoons in my opinion. And I think it'll be even harder for something strong to form, after Haiyan became one of the strongest storms ever not too long ago.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3861
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re:

#347 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Dec 02, 2013 4:30 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:I personally think the WPAC season 2013 might be drawing to a close. I find it hard to spawn even a minimal typhoon in December, when conditions go unfavourable because of winter. I'd say probably one or two tropical storms this month, at most. No more major typhoons in my opinion. And I think it'll be even harder for something strong to form, after Haiyan became one of the strongest storms ever not too long ago.

Nah, for the past consecutive runs, there is no tropical development in the WPAC. We can relax for a bit....
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2907
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: Re:

#348 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Dec 02, 2013 5:15 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:I personally think the WPAC season 2013 might be drawing to a close. I find it hard to spawn even a minimal typhoon in December, when conditions go unfavourable because of winter. I'd say probably one or two tropical storms this month, at most. No more major typhoons in my opinion. And I think it'll be even harder for something strong to form, after Haiyan became one of the strongest storms ever not too long ago.

Nah, for the past consecutive runs, there is no tropical development in the WPAC. We can relax for a bit....


I hope the tropical cyclones are done with the Philippines, too much destruction. Let the wind shear and dry air grow to their fullest, enough of this entire WPAC region has been affected! :(
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3861
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: Re:

#349 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Dec 02, 2013 7:39 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:I personally think the WPAC season 2013 might be drawing to a close. I find it hard to spawn even a minimal typhoon in December, when conditions go unfavourable because of winter. I'd say probably one or two tropical storms this month, at most. No more major typhoons in my opinion. And I think it'll be even harder for something strong to form, after Haiyan became one of the strongest storms ever not too long ago.

Nah, for the past consecutive runs, there is no tropical development in the WPAC. We can relax for a bit....


I hope the tropical cyclones are done with the Philippines, too much destruction. Let the wind shear and dry air grow to their fullest, enough of this entire WPAC region has been affected! :(

Honestly, typhoons are fine for me but I hate too see the deaths and destruction.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2907
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

#350 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Dec 02, 2013 1:16 pm

Same here, I like them when they are totally harmless fishes, but I don't like to see calamities and catastrophes like Haiyan.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3861
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#351 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Dec 03, 2013 4:25 am

OFF TOPIC: Our place is unusually warm... Wonder why.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

euro6208

Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#352 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 9:42 pm

Models continue to show no future developments. Our season is finally over! :D

But...

27 more days until the 2014 typhoon season. :x
0 likes   

euro6208

Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#353 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 13, 2013 10:18 am

Image

Image

Image

Very long range but GFS showing a cyclone near the PI on New Year's Eve.

This is just one run so let's see if future runs show this...
0 likes   

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3861
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#354 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Dec 14, 2013 6:28 pm

euro6208 wrote:Image

Image

Image

Very long range but GFS showing a cyclone near the PI on New Year's Eve.

This is just one run so let's see if future runs show this...

The past several consecutive runs, GFS showed this system forming near the Philippines.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

euro6208

Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#355 Postby euro6208 » Sat Dec 14, 2013 9:57 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Very long range but GFS showing a cyclone near the PI on New Year's Eve.

This is just one run so let's see if future runs show this...

The past several consecutive runs, GFS showed this system forming near the Philippines.


18Z still showing a cyclone just east of mindanao...interesting...but weak for now...
0 likes   

euro6208

Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#356 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 16, 2013 11:46 pm

I've been very busy with work and i come back today to see that models aren't developing anything!

RIP 2013 Typhoon Season!
0 likes   

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3861
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#357 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Dec 18, 2013 8:19 pm

euro6208 wrote:I've been very busy with work and i come back today to see that models aren't developing anything!

RIP 2013 Typhoon Season!

Nope, they are developing a tropical storm consistently over the Visayas... again!

And.. even stronger than before
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3861
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#358 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Dec 20, 2013 9:30 pm

Latest Run GFS shows a typhoon traversing North central Visayas on Jan 03.


It will probably named Agaton, not Alamid due to its formation after Jan 01.

JMA will name it Lingling.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

euro6208

Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#359 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 22, 2013 11:54 am

Well latest has no Typhoon but a bunch of LPA east of the philippines...Time to focus on next year....
0 likes   

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3861
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#360 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Dec 23, 2013 9:32 am

euro6208 wrote:Well latest has no Typhoon but a bunch of LPA east of the philippines...Time to focus on next year....

GFS has typhoon strength near Mindanao on Dec 28 for past 2 consecutive runs.

Oh, and on the 8th, a huge typhoon forms south of Guam and is moving straight westerly!
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], Gustywind, NotSparta, Stormybajan, Ulf and 53 guests