Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[tolakram]

Dry air is shrinking. Still there, but it looks a heck of a lot better than just a few days ago.

Saved Image

[cycloneye]

Here comes the wet MJO.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

The MJO continued to remain weak during the past seven days. However, dynamical model MJO forecasts indicate an organizing MJO signal during Week-1 with an eastward propagation across the western Hemisphere during Week-2.

The western and central Pacific were active during the past week with Tropical Storm Trami developing on August 17, northeast of Luzon. Trami is forecast to become a typhoon before tracking west across Taiwan and making a second landfall in southeast China. Meanwhile, two Tropical Storms and a Tropical Depression developed near the Date Line over the central Pacific. Tropical Storm Erin was a weak and short-lived tropical cyclone (TC) across the far eastern Atlantic.

The focus for tropical cyclogenesis is expected to shift from the western and central Pacific to the east Pacific and Atlantic basins during the next two weeks. A tropical cyclone (TC) is likely to develop between 15-20N/105-115W across the east Pacific with an expected track north near the Baja peninsula. This general north-northwest track is supported by most model guidance and is consistent with previous GFS model solutions. A moisture surge north from the Gulf of California is likely to follow, which increases the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding across the desert Southwest. The 12Z GFS from August 20 indicates a second tropical cyclone developing southwest of the first TC, near 15N/115-120W. Therefore, moderate confidence exists for TC development is forecast across this region. Elevated chances of additional TC development are expected to continue due the organizing MJO signal propagating from Phase 1 to 8.

The large scale environment is expected to become more favorable for TC development across the main development region (MDR) of the Atlantic basin later in Week-1 and continuing into September. MJO composites for Phase 1 along with model tools support the moderate to high confidence for TC formation during the next two weeks across the MDR region of the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Here is a new video by Levi Cowan about what to expect as the peak of the season draws closer.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... of-august/

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I wish I could thumb up your post a thousand times. Really...I wish I could. The problem isnt with the number of named storms we have had up until now but it is with the preseason forecasts. So many agencies came out predicting higher than normal activity and higher than normal chances of the US coastline being affected by hurricanes this year.

Look, most of us have been here long enough to know that activity will pick up. Many people that are frustrated are those that bought into the preseason forecasts and they are like...ok well where the hell is all this increased activity and threats to the coastline that was predicted. The models show very little activity over the next week or two and it adds more and more and more to the.....well where the hell is the activity

I agree with the part about it isn't about the numbers but about the landfall chances and higher activity. Every time you turned on the news, radio, computer one way or another it was shoved in our faces about hiw dangerous this season was supposed to be. I blame the media and really wish there wasnt even preseason forecasts. They are worthless. Just like worthless preseason polls for college sports. You don't know who's going to be good til you see the product on the field for a couple of weeks. To me Its pretty much all for money and ratings. Just like now we have all the sensationalized live storm reports. Its all about the ratings.

Anyway as for the numbers, they don't mean squat. If we end up having 10 weak, short lived, rather pathetic storms and 2 minimal hurricanes that never threaten anybody due to all the troughs and ulls and dry air who is really going to care about the season and predicted high numbers. Nobody. But what it will be remembered for is all the media hype it got and how much of a bust is was.

[gatorcane]

Here is a new video by Levi Cowan about what to expect as the peak of the season draws closer.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... of-august/

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Great video as usual. He is expecting things to really ramp up in the Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and Africa in about 10 days corresponding to the MJO pulse combined with climatology which also suggests things should pick up. He even mentions multiple systems at once. I would have to agree with him on that. A ramp up does appear to be coming. Enjoy the quiet while it lasts

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TheStormExpert]

Wasn't last years hurricane season predictions a bust too? They forecasted a below average season and it ended up being above average.

And as for the expected ramp up in activity within the next 1-2 weeks, I'll believe it when I see it. Something tells me that all that pre-season hype about how active and dangerous this season may be is going to end up bringing us more luck. We will just have to see though!

[Gustywind]

Signs Pointing Toward More Active Tropics

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... t/16819726

August 20, 2013; 8:41
Although we have entered the heart of hurricane season from a climatological standpoint, the Atlantic Basin remains void of tropical storms and hurricanes at this time.

The most active part of the season is typically from mid-August through September. During this time, it is common for clusters of rain and thunderstorms to move westward off Africa and into the eastern Atlantic.

These tropical waves can intensify as they move westward over the warm Atlantic water and become tropical cyclones.

Over recent weeks, several waves have moved off Africa and into the Atlantic. However, a couple of factors have precluded the development of strong tropical storms and hurricanes.

The presence of strong wind shear and Saharan dust during much of the season to this point has helped limit development.

Tropical Storm Erin formed late last week just west of Africa, but the system found the environment too hostile to sustain itself.

Within 24 hours after its formation, it weakened to a tropical depression and never regained strength.

The airborne dust and dry air that gets carried over the Atlantic suppresses thunderstorm development, which is a precursor to tropical development.

Other areas in the tropics that can be breeding grounds for tropical systems, such as the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and the south-central portion of the Atlantic Basin, have lacked abundant moisture. This has reduced the ability for large complexes of thunderstorms to develop.

While it will remain quiet in the short-term, there are indications that the tropics could become more active next week.

The limiting factors, such as wind shear and dry Saharan air, do tend to lessen as September approaches. This should allow for an increase in thunderstorm development over the tropics and help tropical waves to strengthen into tropical storms and hurricanes.

So far this season, there have been five named storms in the Atlantic Basin, none of which have become hurricanes. On average, there is typically around four named storms by Aug. 20th.

The next tropical storm that develops will take the name of Fernand.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I agree with that as well storm expert. Will believe it when I actually see it. Its a shame to have to think like that but for two months now we have kept hearing one week, next weeks models show activity ramping up. Wait no, just wait two more weeks then things will really get going. Its only first of august let's wait til mid/end of august and then things really will pick up. Before long we are going to tracking our first winter cold front before our first hurricane if this keeps up and just keep waiting two more weeks

[SoupBone]

Here is a new video by Levi Cowan about what to expect as the peak of the season draws closer.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... of-august/

Enjoy the quiet while it lasts

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is said just about every year. Wait for it, wait for it, wait for it.....

[ninel conde]

Here is a new video by Levi Cowan about what to expect as the peak of the season draws closer.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... of-august/

Enjoy the quiet while it lasts

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is said just about every year. Wait for it, wait for it, wait for it.....

sept 10 almost here and still mid level dry air dominates the atlantic.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... vmid&time=

as alyono has pointed out even if the MJO becomes positive, and ill believe it when i see it, there isnt a single disturbance in the atlantic capable of becoming a storm right now.

[cycloneye]

Here is a very interesting articule about why the season is not a bust.

According to weather records dating back to 1851, there are 48 other
years when the first hurricane materialized after Aug. 20, and in 25 of
those years, it was on or after Sept. 1. The all-time latest is Oct. 8,
1905.

http://news.yahoo.com/forecasters-hurri ... 31149.html

[Hyperstorm]

sept 10 almost here and still mid level dry air dominates the atlantic.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... vmid&time=

as alyono has pointed out even if the MJO becomes positive, and ill believe it when i see it, there isnt a single disturbance in the atlantic capable of becoming a storm right now.

What does September 10 have to do with the dry air on August 21? Look up past hurricane seasons and see how fast the Atlantic can change from nothing to hurricanes left and right in less than a week.

Talk to me on September 10th...

[Bocadude85]

sept 10 almost here and still mid level dry air dominates the atlantic.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... vmid&time=

as alyono has pointed out even if the MJO becomes positive, and ill believe it when i see it, there isnt a single disturbance in the atlantic capable of becoming a storm right now.

What does September 10 have to do with the dry air on August 21? Look up past hurricane seasons and see how fast the Atlantic can change from nothing to hurricanes left and right in less than a week.

Talk to me on September 10th...

Yea I am not sure what September 10th has to do with anything? September 10th is three weeks away. A lot can change in three weeks. I do not know why people are so focused on climatology, perhaps we will have a later then normal peak to the hurricane season.

[caneman]

Hyperstorm, no one is arguing that things can't ramp up. They can and it still might. However, we are behind already. The Atlantic has looked like a desert the last couple of weeks, experts predicted a very busy season (why they continue to do this I don't know as it seems to be about as inaccurate as models predicting storm strength), MJO coming is only relative if there are waves and favorable conditions, models are not showing much long term and I could go on and on. These are all facts that can't be denied. Now, having said that, does that mean the season is a bust? No, it doesn't as things could ramp up quickly and/or it could be a slow season but a Cat. 4 or Cat. 5 destroys a major city.

[Sanibel]

I've lived in South Florida long enough that I know the type of clouds I've seen overhead recently are itching to form but aren't for some reason. Not quite there yet.

[Bocadude85]

Here is a new video by Levi Cowan about what to expect as the peak of the season draws closer.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... of-august/

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Great video as usual. He is expecting things to really ramp up in the Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and Africa in about 10 days corresponding to the MJO pulse combined with climatology which also suggests things should pick up. He even mentions multiple systems at once. I would have to agree with him on that. A ramp up does appear to be coming. Enjoy the quiet while it lasts

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The hurricane season is really just starting for us down here gatorcane. The period from September 10th-20th has featured more major hurricane landfalls in South Florida then any other period. And October has had more hurricane strikes than any other month.

[wxman57]

Here is a very interesting articule about why the season is not a bust.

According to weather records dating back to 1851, there are 48 other
years when the first hurricane materialized after Aug. 20, and in 25 of
those years, it was on or after Sept. 1. The all-time latest is Oct. 8,
1905.

http://news.yahoo.com/forecasters-hurri ... 31149.html

You can't really count those pre-satellite years, though. Many short-lived hurricanes may not have been detected before the 1970s/1980s. In the modern satellite era, we have:

2002 - Gustav on 9/11 (4 hurricanes)
2001 - Erin on 9/8 (9 hurricanes)
1988 - Debby on 9/2 (6 hurricanes)
1984 - Diana 9/10 (5 hurricanes)

Averaging seasons without a hurricane until September from 1960, I see an average of 5 hurricanes in these late start seasons. 2001 was definitely an anomaly with 9 hurricanes. No other season had more than 6 with the late start.

Based on the above, I'm thinking 14/6/3 for this season. A little above average numbers-wise, but close to average ACE-wise.

[ninel conde]

Here is a very interesting articule about why the season is not a bust.

According to weather records dating back to 1851, there are 48 other
years when the first hurricane materialized after Aug. 20, and in 25 of
those years, it was on or after Sept. 1. The all-time latest is Oct. 8,
1905.

http://news.yahoo.com/forecasters-hurri ... 31149.html

You can't really count those pre-satellite years, though. Many short-lived hurricanes may not have been detected before the 1970s/1980s. In the modern satellite era, we have:

2002 - Gustav on 9/11 (4 hurricanes)
2001 - Erin on 9/8 (9 hurricanes)
1988 - Debby on 9/2 (6 hurricanes)
1984 - Diana 9/10 (5 hurricanes)

Averaging seasons without a hurricane until September from 1960, I see an average of 5 hurricanes in these late start seasons. 2001 was definitely an anomaly with 9 hurricanes. No other season had more than 6 with the late start.

Based on the above, I'm thinking 14/6/3 for this season. A little above average numbers-wise, but close to average ACE-wise.

i hope we can still go 9/6/3 for the season.

[wxman57]

i hope we can still go 9/6/3 for the season.

Impossible. We're already at 5/0/0. To get to 6 hurricanes we have to have at least 11 named storms (11/6/3).

[SouthFloridian92]

Here is a new video by Levi Cowan about what to expect as the peak of the season draws closer.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... of-august/

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Great video as usual. He is expecting things to really ramp up in the Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and Africa in about 10 days corresponding to the MJO pulse combined with climatology which also suggests things should pick up. He even mentions multiple systems at once. I would have to agree with him on that. A ramp up does appear to be coming. Enjoy the quiet while it lasts

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The hurricane season is really just starting for us down here gatorcane. The period from September 10th-20th has featured more major hurricane landfalls in South Florida then any other period. And October has had more hurricane strikes than any other month.

Yes and in my town (Key West), October has been the most active month for us.

The hurricanes we get in October usually form just off of Panama, head north over Cuba and pass over us.

Based on my counts from 1861 to 2012 for Key West...
In June, we've gotten hit by 1 hurricane
July, we never got hit
August, we received 3 hurricanes
September, 8
October, 17
November, 0

Wilma was the last hurricane, nearly 8 years ago. On average, my town gets hit by a hurricane every 4 to 5 years. The longest streak without a hurricane was from 1967-1980 and before that, from 1951-1963.