2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The models are probably going to be shifting a lot from an EPAC storm to an ATL storm as the low could conceivably consolidate in either basin. Looking like a classic, slow developing late-June monsoonal low to me.

[Florida1118]

NWS Houston feels pretty strongly about it.

Overall conditions are not favorable for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico over the next 7 days. Synoptic forecast models are behaving as expected beyond 7 days with the development of a model "cane" of some sort with a tropical wave that moves into the Yucatan the following Sunday/Monday June 18/19 time frame. There is no consistency or solid signal in the models to believe these details in the models. These types of model "canes" typically remain in the 7-10 day forecast range with each successive model run and never materialize.

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/873557408454520832

[Alyono]

NWS Houston feels pretty strongly about it.

Overall conditions are not favorable for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico over the next 7 days. Synoptic forecast models are behaving as expected beyond 7 days with the development of a model "cane" of some sort with a tropical wave that moves into the Yucatan the following Sunday/Monday June 18/19 time frame. There is no consistency or solid signal in the models to believe these details in the models. These types of model "canes" typically remain in the 7-10 day forecast range with each successive model run and never materialize.

not sure about their synoptic reasoning. This is more than a wave. This is a large scale monsoon trough

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS parallel and old GFS with a N then NE turn at the end. Old GFS with a sharp ENE turn and intensifying system which crosses across the northern Gulf then over northern Florida. good it is long-range





CMC has an Eastern Gulf solution

[cycloneye]

GFS begins at 162 hours with the development north of Honduras.

[Steve]

That 12Z CMC solution is farther west than hooking up through the lower Peninsula. GFS is farther east than the bury into S TX or N Mex it had been alternating with a W LA hit. It's in that longer period, but the Western Caribbean looks to be the place to watch anyway for piling of energy late week/early next weekend.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

NWS Houston feels pretty strongly about it.

Overall conditions are not favorable for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico over the next 7 days. Synoptic forecast models are behaving as expected beyond 7 days with the development of a model "cane" of some sort with a tropical wave that moves into the Yucatan the following Sunday/Monday June 18/19 time frame. There is no consistency or solid signal in the models to believe these details in the models. These types of model "canes" typically remain in the 7-10 day forecast range with each successive model run and never materialize.

not sure about their synoptic reasoning. This is more than a wave. This is a large scale monsoon trough

Yea, that struck me as somewhat of a write off on their part. But obviously that doesn't mean they're wrong either. We have seen this quite often with the models with this setup. It's also still very possible we're looking at the beginnings of Calvin or Dora, not Bret. These monsoonal lows tend to be massive and can consolidate in either basin.

[Alyono]

NWS Houston feels pretty strongly about it.

Overall conditions are not favorable for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico over the next 7 days. Synoptic forecast models are behaving as expected beyond 7 days with the development of a model "cane" of some sort with a tropical wave that moves into the Yucatan the following Sunday/Monday June 18/19 time frame. There is no consistency or solid signal in the models to believe these details in the models. These types of model "canes" typically remain in the 7-10 day forecast range with each successive model run and never materialize.

not sure about their synoptic reasoning. This is more than a wave. This is a large scale monsoon trough

Yea, that struck me as somewhat of a write off on their part. But that certainly doesn't mean they're not wrong though. We have seen this quite often with the models. It's also still very possible we're looking at the beginnings of Calvin or Dora, not Bret. These monsoonal lows tend to be massive and can consolidate in either basin.

the models are all developing the same system, just as they did with Matthew. That is a tell tale sign that development is likely.

Remember, with Matthew, it took a semi functioning monkey to know that was going to develop and be strong. This does not have the same development chances and will not be as strong as Matthew, but it is starting to look more likely than not that something will form in the Caribbean. Even if it forms in the EPAC, it should lift into the BOC

[SFLcane]

Naaa..developing in the E-pac.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro @ Hr 144 down to 1006 mb in the EPAC and has it moving NNE and beginning to make landfall over CA. Similar track to the 00z Euro thus far. Just seems faster.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro @ Hr 144 down to 1006 mb in the EPAC and has it moving NNE and beginning to make landfall over CA. Similar track to the 00z Euro thus far. Just seems faster.

And at 168 hours it cross to Gulf of Honduras.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro @ Hr 144 down to 1006 mb in the EPAC and has it moving NNE and beginning to make landfall over CA. Similar track to the 00z Euro thus far. Just seems faster.

And at 168 hours it cross to Gulf of Honduras.

Ridge building back in @ Hr 216, and it's basically meandering over CA. Big flooding event for them.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro @ Hr 144 down to 1006 mb in the EPAC and has it moving NNE and beginning to make landfall over CA. Similar track to the 00z Euro thus far. Just seems faster.

And at 168 hours it cross to Gulf of Honduras.

Ridge building back in @ Hr 216, and it's basically meandering over CA. Big flooding event for them.

BOC bound at 1004 mbs at end of run.

[OuterBanker]

Gator, the models are a lot of fun in long range. Good to see the CMC (Gem) is back to it's old tricks. Combine the models and it looks like a GOM coast hugger (something we here on the SE coast constantly see on the models). One thing that does bother me though. Early storms used to happen more often in the past in the GOM. GOMers by now are used to little or no activity in the Gulf. Has complacency set in there?

[SouthFloridian92]

A tropical storm would hopefully bring needed rain.

[Steve]

I haven't seen the ECMWF Bastardi was referring to on his Saturday summary, but apparently there is a product he said looks at centering on what it believes will be hot spots this year. He referenced middle of the Gulf, Bahamas/just off SE Coast (definite hotspot the last 2 seasons) and off the US East Coast maybe a bit north of the Chesapeake Bay.

[OuterBanker]

A tropical storm would hopefully bring needed rain.

All three of the models quoted are in the 980's which is a Cat 1.

[wxman57]

I haven't seen the ECMWF Bastardi was referring to on his Saturday summary, but apparently there is a product he said looks at centering on what it believes will be hot spots this year. He referenced middle of the Gulf, Bahamas/just off SE Coast (definite hotspot the last 2 seasons) and off the US East Coast maybe a bit north of the Chesapeake Bay.

He's probably talking about the EC Seasonal Density Anomaly graphic. Below is a piece of it. There is a small red blob in the southern Gulf and another near the Bahamas. I don't know that such small pockets are significant compared to the much larger area of low activity east of the Caribbean.

[wxman57]

I'm seeing tremendous run-to-run inconsistency in the long-range GFS position of this system. Euro has a 1000mb low in the BoC at day 10, which is consistent with its 00Z run. It does appear as though we might see some development either in the East Pac, western Caribbean, or BoC late next weekend or early the following week. GFS says landfall of a TS/H somewhere between Tampico and Tampa in recent runs. For now, we'll need to keep an eye on that area next week. Way too early to talk about a TS/H threat in any particular area.