Andrew92 wrote:The JB tweet above has me quite concerned when coupled with a theory I have proposed for some time. Some people may know that the theory is the second year following a traditional El Nino has always seen a major hurricane hit the US. A major hurricane in my case is not merely a Category 3 or higher by wind, but instead I go by pressure. The threshold is below 965 mb. 2017 is going to test that theory.
What's more is that El Nino may indeed not be returning as speculated just a month ago or so. I am not going to necessarily say though that 2005 is a solid analog. However, the MDR was not terribly active that year after July (when we had Dennis and Emily) and such a weak MDR would not surprise me again this year. That's because, even without an El Nino, some warming may keep the lower latitudes at bay a little bit. But the subtropics concern me a great deal more. Wasn't there also a lot of talk of potential homegrown activity this year? The Bahamas and Gulf of Mexico fit that bill well, so such activity forming and intensifying in those regions is probably what I would most expect.
I agree there is a lot of uncertainty and mixed signals coming into this hurricane season as well. But the theory of the second year after an El Nino stands to be tested. Everyone should absolutely watch out this year for a big one to potentially hit. (I know that sounds cliche, but this year, based on my theory, is high-risk.) And I should stress, it won't take 2005-like impacts to prove the theory. It will only take one hurricane below 965 mb striking the US coast somewhere for the theory to stand. Just like last time, in 2011, when Irene was the only one, but her pressure was 955 mb at the North Carolina landfall, and she went on to cause a lot of problems and damage in the Northeast.
I hope it's proven wrong, but I would be well-prepared if I lived on the Atlantic coast.
-Andrew92
As long as you've been doing this theory has it proven to be true every single 2nd year proceeding an El Niño?
