2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[cycloneye]

This is one of the more quieter years that I've ever seen. We're actually beating the EPAC by .4 units of ACE. Five weeks into it's season and the EPAC has 0 units of ACE. The WPAC only has 35 units of ACE! A very quiet season for all three basins thus far. However, the CAP " as they say " can be lifted at any time!

Looks like EPAC will wake up shortly with a couple of longtrackers and if that occurs then may add a good deal of ACE.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1142897604159782919

[Blown Away]

All hurricanes using the analog years 1953, 1958, 1966, 1979, 1998, 2010, and 2017...

[tolakram]

These are the SST anomalies for 2010, 2017, and 2019. All of these are right around June 20th of the respective year, give or take a few days. I'm not seeing the analogs, though things can change by the time the heart of the season gets here.

2010


2017


2019

[Shell Mound]

All hurricanes using the analog years 1953, 1958, 1966, 1979, 1998, 2010, and 2017...
https://i.imgur.com/sVDZhr9.jpg

Combined with AMO-based analogs—especially 2003 and 2016—the PWAT data and atmospheric correlations would tend to suggest distinct clusters of activity in 2019: 1) over/near the lower (South) TX coast; 2) over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, with outcomes ranging from Mobile, AL, to St. Marks, FL; 3) over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, just north of Central America; 4) along and just offshore of the Carolinas; 5) over/near Bermuda; and 6) just northeast of the Leeward Islands. Based on the historical data, red (bold) indicates areas that may be at greatest risk for a (major) hurricane landfall in 2019. Unfortunately, neither TX nor the FL Panhandle needs another hurricane, so soon after the events of 2017-8.

[chaser1]

All hurricanes using the analog years 1953, 1958, 1966, 1979, 1998, 2010, and 2017...
https://i.imgur.com/sVDZhr9.jpg

Combined with AMO-based analogs—especially 2003 and 2016—the PWAT data and atmospheric correlations would tend to suggest distinct clusters of activity in 2019: 1) over/near the lower (South) TX coast; 2) over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, with outcomes ranging from Mobile, AL, to St. Marks, FL; 3) over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, just north of Central America; 4) along and just offshore of the Carolinas; 5) over/near Bermuda; and 6) just northeast of the Leeward Islands. Based on the historical data, red (bold) indicates areas that may be at greatest risk for a (major) hurricane landfall in 2019. Unfortunately, neither TX nor the FL Panhandle needs another hurricane, so soon after the events of 2017-8.

Seems reasonable enough, though my hedge for potential major might match up with a late September or early October event down in your S.W. Caribbean hot spot.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1143902241872601089

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1143903526395027456

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1143908888372232193

[NotSparta]

The subtropical warm pool is getting precipitously close to the tropics (sorry for posting my own tweet lol, but no need to repeat what I've said there)

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1143921733575086087

[Kazmit]

Warming MDR, dying El Niño...
The Atlantic may be dead right now but I have a feeling it'll be a different story 6 weeks from now.

[WeatherEmperor]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1143902241872601089

This negative NAO would also have more troughing by the east coast which could recurve storms away right? What is the position of the trough currently looking like?


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[Hurricaneman]

Here’s my thinking, 2004 may be a good analog as well as 1998 as the ENSO doesn’t look too dissimilar to those years and the Atlantic seems to be shifting towards those years, so don’t expect much of any tropical activity for at least the next month at the earliest but a flurry of activity from that point on out especially after the first week of August

[NotSparta]

Here’s my thinking, 2004 may be a good analog as well as 1998 as the ENSO doesn’t look too dissimilar to those years and the Atlantic seems to be shifting towards those years, so don’t expect much of any tropical activity for at least the next month at the earliest but a flurry of activity from that point on out especially after the first week of August

While the AMO does seem to be rising I don't think we'll be seeing as much +AMO as 2004, and the Pacific is also likely to be active

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1144201749726547969

[tolakram]

:crazyeyes:

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1143908888372232193

Is that model output? Here's the current operational SST anomaly chart.

[SFLcane]

That's some cooling in the eastern pacific..

[TheStormExpert]

Here’s my thinking, 2004 may be a good analog as well as 1998 as the ENSO doesn’t look too dissimilar to those years and the Atlantic seems to be shifting towards those years, so don’t expect much of any tropical activity for at least the next month at the earliest but a flurry of activity from that point on out especially after the first week of August

That’s one of two things that concerns me right now, all is quiet out there until the tail end of July or the first week or two of August when the lid potentially comes off.

Secondly we do not know where these storms or hurricanes could track as steering seems like it may be setting up differently when compared to the last few seasons. The -NAO should play a role in determining how much of a chance the U.S. has at getting hit a lot like back in 2010, 2011, etc.

Still can’t rule out a hyperactive period like in 2004 but something very similar seems unlikely in my opinion especially when it comes to where the storms track.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1144282729099550720

[BYG Jacob]

Looks like neutral or Nina this year.