Wave well east of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 96L)

[StruThiO]

A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the
next several days. Some development is possible over the weekend or
early next week while the system moves over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[crownweather]

GFS Trend - all these runs are from today.... wow lol

https://i.imgur.com/3jLMe6J.gif

Yup, zero consistency which makes me highly suspicious of any one model run right now.

[sma10]

A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the
next several days. Some development is possible over the weekend or
early next week while the system moves over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/lN9ngHP.png

Mad respect for the GFS
Stewart sees zero development on the 18z and says, "let's UP it to 40%" lmaooo

[Kazmit]

A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the
next several days. Some development is possible over the weekend or
early next week while the system moves over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/lN9ngHP.png

Mad respect for the GFS
Stewart sees zero development on the 18z and says, "let's UP it to 40%" lmaooo

Next run it will probably show a cat 4 plowing into Mexico anyway, lol.

[Hurricaneman]

A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the
next several days. Some development is possible over the weekend or
early next week while the system moves over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/lN9ngHP.png

Mad respect for the GFS
Stewart sees zero development on the 18z and says, "let's UP it to 40%" lmaooo

When Stacy Stewart thinks that the GFS is on drugs it probably is

[AxaltaRacing24]

A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the
next several days. Some development is possible over the weekend or
early next week while the system moves over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/lN9ngHP.png

Mad respect for the GFS
Stewart sees zero development on the 18z and says, "let's UP it to 40%" lmaooo

When Stacy Stewart thinks that the GFS is on drugs it probably is

i mean. when the euro is mostly consistent and the gfs is all over the place, we usually know how that goes.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GFS likely developing way to soon and nearly all systems that strengthen/deepen east of 40W recurve OTS. Let’s see if the 18z influences the 8pm update. The forecast so far is only 30% chance of development in next 5 days, GFS was way ahead of schedule.

18z GFS doesn't deepen it at all. You can clearly see the wave axis goes into Hispaniola and doesn't develop. Instead, the system behind this wave explosively decides to develop.

[RL3AO]

Regarding the 40% remember there's still climatology. The Atlantic has such an aggressive peak season. Were in a 15 to 20 day window where the Atlantic usually doesn't go more than a couple of days without an active storm. Even the crazy slow 2013 season had four storms during September 1st to 20th.

[mlfreeman]

18z GFS likely developing way to soon and nearly all systems that strengthen/deepen east of 40W recurve OTS. Let’s see if the 18z influences the 8pm update. The forecast so far is only 30% chance of development in next 5 days, GFS was way ahead of schedule.

18z GFS doesn't deepen it at all. You can clearly see the wave axis goes into Hispaniola and doesn't develop. Instead, the system behind this wave explosively decides to develop.

A GFS run sending something into Hispaniola and not developing it?
Gee, where have I seen that before and how accurate did it turn out?

I'm going to take that with a grain of salt and go double-check my supplies tomorrow.

[sma10]

18z GFS likely developing way to soon and nearly all systems that strengthen/deepen east of 40W recurve OTS. Let’s see if the 18z influences the 8pm update. The forecast so far is only 30% chance of development in next 5 days, GFS was way ahead of schedule.

18z GFS doesn't deepen it at all. You can clearly see the wave axis goes into Hispaniola and doesn't develop. Instead, the system behind this wave explosively decides to develop.

A GFS run sending something into Hispaniola and not developing it?
Gee, where have I seen that before and how accurate did it turn out?

I'm going to take that with a grain of salt and go double-check my supplies tomorrow.

You may need to anyway in JAX with 95L lol

[AutoPenalti]

I can’t even tell what GFS is showing anymore.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I can’t even tell what GFS is showing anymore.

Euro and CMC will be interesting.

[Hammy]

I can’t even tell what GFS is showing anymore.

Euro and CMC will be interesting.

CMC has moved to the third wave as well. Could be a result of figuring out exactly when the sinking air fades.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I can’t even tell what GFS is showing anymore.

Euro and CMC will be interesting.

CMC has moved to the third wave as well. Could be a result of figuring out exactly when the sinking air fades.

It still develops this one.

[Bigwhitey]

What phase is the Mjo in?

[1900hurricane]

What phase is the Mjo in?

Phase 5 to 6.

[Bigwhitey]

What phase is the Mjo in?

Phase 5 to 6.

https://i.imgur.com/6ENYgpo.gif

I’m sorry what does that mean in plain English? Please forgive my meteorological ignorance

[Frank2]

GFS now drops it on the 18Z and 00Z maps: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 506&fh=360

[Hammy]

No 00z model develops it now.

[StruThiO]

Looks like 00z ecmwf closes this off in the Caribbean