2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/accuweather/status/1760042886010413505

"Serious and growing concern for super-charged hurricane season in 2024"
But without irony, I'm really torn between calling them sensationalists or else agreeing with them. What great times we live in...

Is too volatile the headline. The choice of words is not the best.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/accuweather/status/1760042886010413505

"Serious and growing concern for super-charged hurricane season in 2024"
But without irony, I'm really torn between calling them sensationalists or else agreeing with them. What great times we live in...

Accuweather has a history of driving up the sensationalism for clicks, and the phrasing there kind of gives off that vibe. But I guess if there is any year to use such a bold headline it would be this one...¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (still not fond of it though)

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/accuweather/status/1760042886010413505

"Serious and growing concern for super-charged hurricane season in 2024"
But without irony, I'm really torn between calling them sensationalists or else agreeing with them. What great times we live in...

Accuweather has a history of driving up the sensationalism for clicks, and the phrasing there kind of gives off that vibe. But I guess if there is any year to use such a bold headline it would be this one...¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Yes. In fact, they are professionals and have much greater knowledge than us, always making good predictions. But I often imagine that they also don't live up to the name with sensacionalists headlines and even news, which logically I assume means AccurateWeather.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[cycloneye]

JB says, his hurricane idea is supported.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1760095250452767229




 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1760120178400972821

[SFLcane]

JB says, his hurricane idea is supported.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1760095250452767229

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1760120178400972821

You guys better hope the steering pattern favors plenty of fish because that’s a VERY favorable look on the cfs.

[SFLcane]

Hype aside if things don’t change and the Atlantic looks the way it does in may the alarm, bells whatever you wanna call it should be rang. I personally am watching this season with much interest as the potential is through the ceiling off course it’s impossible to know were they will track but it’s looking ugly. The Atlantic should cool a tad next few weeks with strong trades but will be warming back up.

[tolakram]

Conditions will be so favorable we will have lots of tropical storms too close together and none will get very strong as they rotate around each other. We have seen conditions in the past good enough to spin up just about every low in the basin. Unfortunately we will probably end up with some very strong storms.

I'm not buying that the spring predictability barrier doesn't exist this year though, referencing back to whoever said that. We will see how things look in May.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Conditions will be so favorable we will have lots of tropical storms too close together and none will get very strong as they rotate around each other. We have seen conditions in the past good enough to spin up just about every low in the basin. Unfortunately we will probably end up with some very strong storms.

I'm not buying that the spring predictability barrier doesn't exist this year though, referencing back to whoever said that. We will see how things look in May.

The spring predictability barrier is about as close to nonexistent as it can possibly get. The el nino is currently weakening as we speak and is in even worse condition below the surface. The CPC already has a la nina watch out and is predicting a 75-80% chance of one by the fall. There's a near universal model consensus of at least cool neutral by the summer. Historically, el ninos of this magnitude overwhelming transition to la ninas within the year.

I do agree that we may see something like 2020 with a bunch of storms that never amount to anything.

[tolakram]

Conditions will be so favorable we will have lots of tropical storms too close together and none will get very strong as they rotate around each other. We have seen conditions in the past good enough to spin up just about every low in the basin. Unfortunately we will probably end up with some very strong storms.

I'm not buying that the spring predictability barrier doesn't exist this year though, referencing back to whoever said that. We will see how things look in May.

The spring predictability barrier is about as close to nonexistent as it can possibly get. The el nino is currently weakening as we speak and is in even worse condition below the surface. The CPC already has a la nina watch out and is predicting a 75-80% chance of one by the fall. There's a near universal model consensus of at least cool neutral by the summer. Historically, el ninos of this magnitude overwhelming transition to la ninas within the year.

I do agree that we may see something like 2020 with a bunch of storms that never amount to anything.

This is basically saying the predictability barrier doesn't exist because predictions are correct.

[Steve]

Conditions will be so favorable we will have lots of tropical storms too close together and none will get very strong as they rotate around each other. We have seen conditions in the past good enough to spin up just about every low in the basin. Unfortunately we will probably end up with some very strong storms.

I'm not buying that the spring predictability barrier doesn't exist this year though, referencing back to whoever said that. We will see how things look in May.

The spring predictability barrier is about as close to nonexistent as it can possibly get. The el nino is currently weakening as we speak and is in even worse condition below the surface. The CPC already has a la nina watch out and is predicting a 75-80% chance of one by the fall. There's a near universal model consensus of at least cool neutral by the summer. Historically, el ninos of this magnitude overwhelming transition to la ninas within the year.

I do agree that we may see something like 2020 with a bunch of storms that never amount to anything.

? It was the 7th most costly season on record with over $51 billion* in damage and over 400 deaths.

* Range of economic cost is $40B-65B depending on source.

Also I think that year ended up 31/14/7 which amounts to something.

[JetFuel_SE]

Conditions will be so favorable we will have lots of tropical storms too close together and none will get very strong as they rotate around each other. We have seen conditions in the past good enough to spin up just about every low in the basin. Unfortunately we will probably end up with some very strong storms.

I'm not buying that the spring predictability barrier doesn't exist this year though, referencing back to whoever said that. We will see how things look in May.

The spring predictability barrier is about as close to nonexistent as it can possibly get. The el nino is currently weakening as we speak and is in even worse condition below the surface. The CPC already has a la nina watch out and is predicting a 75-80% chance of one by the fall. There's a near universal model consensus of at least cool neutral by the summer. Historically, el ninos of this magnitude overwhelming transition to la ninas within the year.

I do agree that we may see something like 2020 with a bunch of storms that never amount to anything.

? It was the 7th most costly season on record with over $51 billion* in damage and over 400 deaths.

* Range of economic cost is $40B-65B depending on source.

Also I think that year ended up 31/14/7 which amounts to something.

Pretty sure it was 30 storms, not 31.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Conditions will be so favorable we will have lots of tropical storms too close together and none will get very strong as they rotate around each other. We have seen conditions in the past good enough to spin up just about every low in the basin. Unfortunately we will probably end up with some very strong storms.

I'm not buying that the spring predictability barrier doesn't exist this year though, referencing back to whoever said that. We will see how things look in May.

The spring predictability barrier is about as close to nonexistent as it can possibly get. The el nino is currently weakening as we speak and is in even worse condition below the surface. The CPC already has a la nina watch out and is predicting a 75-80% chance of one by the fall. There's a near universal model consensus of at least cool neutral by the summer. Historically, el ninos of this magnitude overwhelming transition to la ninas within the year.

I do agree that we may see something like 2020 with a bunch of storms that never amount to anything.

? It was the 7th most costly season on record with over $51 billion* in damage and over 400 deaths.

* Range of economic cost is $40B-65B depending on source.

Also I think that year ended up 31/14/7 which amounts to something.

I never said that 2020 wasn't very active and destructive. I was agreeing with Tolakram that we could see a season that spins up a high quantity of weak/short-lived storms, which was what happened in 2020 on top of everything else.

[cycloneye]

Animation of sst anomalies since 2005.

 https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1760399702158197108

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The spring predictability barrier is about as close to nonexistent as it can possibly get. The el nino is currently weakening as we speak and is in even worse condition below the surface. The CPC already has a la nina watch out and is predicting a 75-80% chance of one by the fall. There's a near universal model consensus of at least cool neutral by the summer. Historically, el ninos of this magnitude overwhelming transition to la ninas within the year.

I do agree that we may see something like 2020 with a bunch of storms that never amount to anything.

? It was the 7th most costly season on record with over $51 billion* in damage and over 400 deaths.

* Range of economic cost is $40B-65B depending on source.

Also I think that year ended up 31/14/7 which amounts to something.

I never said that 2020 wasn't very active and destructive. I was agreeing with Tolakram that we could see a season that spins up a high quantity of weak/short-lived storms, which was what happened in 2020 on top of everything else.

Partly to blame for the somewhat lackluster MDR activity in 2020 (despite it going crazy virtually everywhere else) was the supercharged WAM making things messy, causing either giant gyre-like waves which took eons to develop (Isaias) or sloppy monsoonal traffic jams where waves leapfrogged and/or crashed into each other, thus inhibiting development for the most part. Teddy was really the one true powerful MDR long tracker that year and even then it came from a weird, almost bifurcated system with like dual waves attached to each other SW to NE (the NE portion spawned Vicky iirc). Good example of something being almost too favorable, I suppose, if that makes any sense.

As for weaker early season subtropical development, we'll probably get our fair share like most years, but it was basically nonstop spam for the first half of 2020. I know the NHC has become more cognizant of such developments in recent years which kind of raises the odds of a higher NS tally again by default but I honestly don't think it'll get that extreme this season.

[Teban54]

? It was the 7th most costly season on record with over $51 billion* in damage and over 400 deaths.

* Range of economic cost is $40B-65B depending on source.

Also I think that year ended up 31/14/7 which amounts to something.

I never said that 2020 wasn't very active and destructive. I was agreeing with Tolakram that we could see a season that spins up a high quantity of weak/short-lived storms, which was what happened in 2020 on top of everything else.

Partly to blame for the somewhat lackluster MDR activity in 2020 (despite it going crazy virtually everywhere else) was the supercharged WAM making things messy, causing either giant gyre-like waves which took eons to develop (Isaias) or sloppy monsoonal traffic jams where waves leapfrogged and/or crashed into each other, thus inhibiting development for the most part. Teddy was really the one true powerful MDR long tracker that year and even then it came from a weird, almost bifurcated system with like dual waves attached to each other SW to NE (the NE portion spawned Vicky iirc). Good example of something being almost too favorable, I suppose, if that makes any sense.

As for weaker early season subtropical development, we'll probably get our fair share like most years, but it was basically nonstop spam for the first half of 2020. I know the NHC has become more cognizant of such developments in recent years which kind of raises the odds of a higher NS tally again by default but I honestly don't think it'll get that extreme this season.

Another reason for 2020's MDR (under)performance is typhoon-induced TUTTs due to three recurring typhoons that were timed perfectly with the MDR season. Paulette was facing 50 kts of shear because of that.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I never said that 2020 wasn't very active and destructive. I was agreeing with Tolakram that we could see a season that spins up a high quantity of weak/short-lived storms, which was what happened in 2020 on top of everything else.

Partly to blame for the somewhat lackluster MDR activity in 2020 (despite it going crazy virtually everywhere else) was the supercharged WAM making things messy, causing either giant gyre-like waves which took eons to develop (Isaias) or sloppy monsoonal traffic jams where waves leapfrogged and/or crashed into each other, thus inhibiting development for the most part. Teddy was really the one true powerful MDR long tracker that year and even then it came from a weird, almost bifurcated system with like dual waves attached to each other SW to NE (the NE portion spawned Vicky iirc). Good example of something being almost too favorable, I suppose, if that makes any sense.

As for weaker early season subtropical development, we'll probably get our fair share like most years, but it was basically nonstop spam for the first half of 2020. I know the NHC has become more cognizant of such developments in recent years which kind of raises the odds of a higher NS tally again by default but I honestly don't think it'll get that extreme this season.

Another reason for 2020's MDR (under)performance is typhoon-induced TUTTs due to three recurring typhoons that were timed perfectly with the MDR season. Paulette was facing 50 kts of shear because of that.

Yeah I remember Maysak being a contributor.

[Deshaunrob17]

The spring predictability barrier is about as close to nonexistent as it can possibly get. The el nino is currently weakening as we speak and is in even worse condition below the surface. The CPC already has a la nina watch out and is predicting a 75-80% chance of one by the fall. There's a near universal model consensus of at least cool neutral by the summer. Historically, el ninos of this magnitude overwhelming transition to la ninas within the year.

I do agree that we may see something like 2020 with a bunch of storms that never amount to anything.

? It was the 7th most costly season on record with over $51 billion* in damage and over 400 deaths.

* Range of economic cost is $40B-65B depending on source.

Also I think that year ended up 31/14/7 which amounts to something.

I never said that 2020 wasn't very active and destructive. I was agreeing with Tolakram that we could see a season that spins up a high quantity of weak/short-lived storms, which was what happened in 2020 on top of everything else.

I agree with what you saying . 2020 was beyond active and insane, but a lot of people I remember were thinking that year would have a lot of long track hurricanes like 1933 or even 2017.. I think in terms of Ace it would boils down to if every low spins up and we get 30 storms with Ace less than 200 or we get 20 storms with over 200 Ace..
Either way a very active year is in the making

[Blown Away]

Animation of sst anomalies since 2005.

https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1760399702158197108

The near normal subtropic SST’s in the W Atl and super charged tropic SST's is the pattern that may send storms farther W towards land in 2024…

[TheWisestofAll]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1760690880867185017



 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1760692884486164988

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1760690880867185017?s=20
https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1760692884486164988?s=20

I was going to post that, but my god