TD 10...Back Again

[bsuwx]

exactly. they have nothing to gain and everything to lose by upgrading too early. it is not an imminent threat to land at this juncture, they'll the upgrade slide for a day.



Thats interesting. I think they shouldn't upgrade at 11 because its too soon. Wait till 5 or even 11 AM tomorrow when visibles are up and see whats its like then.

It would be embarrasing for them to have to downgrade a second time if this doesn't last more than 6 or 12 hours.[/quote]

[Bocadude85]

Bocadude85 wrote:
"What is wrong with it? Andrew was a once-in-a-lifetime catastrophic storm--evidently, you are too young, or not experienced enough to realize that trivializing a situation such as Andrew by comparing it to a struggling fledgling depression is inappropriate"

How could you say that seeing a cat 5 strike land is a once in a lifetime thing, camile hit in 1969 and andrew hit 23 years later in 1992 thats farless then a lifetime, thats like saying lighting never strikes the same place twice, it happened once and it will almost certianly happen again.
'
Let it go man."

Im not saying ex td 10 is going to be an Andrew my point was you cant rule something out just because its not a common occurance, who here last year thought Jeanne was going to make landfall within 2 miles of where Frances made landfall

[WeatherEmperor]

I think this will likely stay west-northwest as the subtropcial high builds to its north(Mjo wet phase=convection over the tropics + lower pressures. Which also means a higher pressure to the north) Also think as the trough/tutt moves out/weakens the enviroment is going to become very favable. A upper high is trying to build over this system for crying out load.

We have a well defined LLC with a big burst of convection. While at the same time a upper high with the enviroment slowly becoming more favable. Also one of the reason why Dennis/Emily became power houses was because they had to deal with very little SAL. Can't say that the super warm waters did not help but that a lone doe's not make a a storm powerful. The SAL is a check on that. In with little of that at the moment I'm scared that it could well grow into a powerful storm.

This is not a tropical wave. If you went to call it anything its called a tropical distrabance or tropical low.

I also think a slow organizion over the next 24 to 36 hours should take place. Then a faster pace of development afterwards. People I'm not fooling around.

This has a defined LLC with developing convection right over it. I would watch it as it moves into a moist plus a low shear enviroment.

This is my option take it for what its worth.

damn that was nicely written

<RICKY>

[deltadog03]

i think this could take a track like andrew...maybe even south of there...maybe FL straits??

[WeatherEmperor]

i think this could take a track like andrew...maybe even south of there...maybe FL straits??

maybe if it continues to stay very weak i guess.

<RICKY>

[WeatherEmperor]

check out tonights 00Z run for the GFDL for TD10. Takes it north away from FL. THoughts?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[gkrangers]

check out tonights 00Z run for the GFDL for TD10. Takes it north away from FL. THoughts?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Thats the 18z GFDL.

[du1st]

Looks like a fish.

[jabber]

steve lyons said earlier if it persists it will be upgraded tonight...i wonder if he was in contact with someone at the nhc

Thats interesting. I think they shouldn't upgrade at 11 because its too soon. Wait till 5 or even 11 AM tomorrow when visuals are up and see whats its like then.

It would be embarrasing for them to have to downgrade a second time if this doesn't last more than 6 or 12 hours.

Very well stated... they will not upgrade till some visuals in the am at the soonest

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

None of those models show a fish. Maybe the Lbar. But I don't think so.

[du1st]

To early for them too but they show them heading away from flordia and that may indicate a fish.

[WeatherEmperor]

check out tonights 00Z run for the GFDL for TD10. Takes it north away from FL. THoughts?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Thats the 18z GFDL.

No its been updated already. It could be your browswer just wait another few minutes. Basically the 00Z GFDL takes it WNW then NW away from the Bahamas. It no longer has this W turn towards FL.

<RICKY>

[Scorpion]

Thats one run.

[artist]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[gkrangers]

check out tonights 00Z run for the GFDL for TD10. Takes it north away from FL. THoughts?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Thats the 18z GFDL.

No its been updated already. It could be your browswer just wait another few minutes. Basically the 00Z GFDL takes it WNW then NW away from the Bahamas. It no longer has this W turn towards FL.

<RICKY>

Like I said, that is the 18z GFDL. The GFDL comes out a few hours after runtime. The 00z GFDL has not been run yet.

[du1st]

Thats one run.

Maybe but don't you see an irene trait?

[WeatherEmperor]

Thats one run.

well the GFDL has been continuously run eventhough the system was downgraded. This is the first run it has where it turns it further north but it has kept being run.

<RICKY>

[sma10]

check out tonights 00Z run for the GFDL for TD10. Takes it north away from FL. THoughts?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Thats the 18z GFDL.

No its been updated already. It could be your browswer just wait another few minutes. Basically the 00Z GFDL takes it WNW then NW away from the Bahamas. It no longer has this W turn towards FL.

<RICKY>

That's the 18Z GFDL. It isn't even 00Z yet!

The 18Z comes out each night at about this time.

Regarding the track.....looks like it isn't gonna be Andrew!

[du1st]

Just like Irene the GFDL dissapates it.

[Sanibel]

Ignore the left outliers. They have proven incorrect with Irene. Slow means recurve.

But on the other hand TD10 is south and tracking towards the islands...