Katrina Strengthening

[Frank2]

It does seem that Broward is now too far south, considering...

[Deenac813]

Yes, the center appears to be near 25.0N 76.0W - northeast of their forecast plot.

Frank

No way it makes landfall In Broward...I see PB even martin now!

Could Broward luck out once again???

[tw861]

Yes, the center appears to be near 25.0N 76.0W - northeast of their forecast plot.

If it's current forward speed continues, it would be nearing the Florida coast much sooner than earlier forecast - that would be a good thing, as far as preventing any substantial increase in strength.

We'll see,

Frank

I think you are little too far NE with your center. Looking at MIA long range radar and HI RES visuals it appears the center is to the SSE of Nassau.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml

The wind at Nassau is still out of the east which would also support that. I'm gonna guess about 24.8/77.0

[Recurve]

For position reference, I'm at 25 degrees 5 minutes north on Key Largo. That's about 50 miles south of downtown Miami. The CPA on the forecast track is about 95 NE of here

Also, just my opinion, don't be too hard on anyone posting about the possible dangers. There were some who made it sound like a TS or Cat 1 is a welcome spring shower. But there's likely to be some bad though isolated damage with any storm.

I was driving home from work on the 18-mile stretch when TS Mitch came into the Upper Keys. Just over the bridge, a massive tractor-trailer truck was flipped upside down, its main axle was 50 feet away. A row of million-dollar homes was smashed on Buttonwood Sound (second floors blown away). Big mahogany trees (2 foot trunks) were ripped apart on US 1. All from one or more tornadoes that dropped from this weak TS. Power was out on most of the island for a few days.

[gatorcane]

there would not be TS watches out for the FL Keys if they thought it was going to be a central E coast of FL threat...expect the WNW and then W bend to happen...ridge is building in strong over N FL

[mvtrucking]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml

The wind at Nassau is still out of the east which would also support that. I'm gonna guess about 24.8/77.0[/quote]





I think that is what I am seeing also. It may even be starting to look a bit more west possibly?

[SunnyThoughts]

Just heard on TWC ...Mike Sidel says NHC has told them hurricane watches have replaced the tropical storm watches issued earlier.

[Frank2]

Yes, Hurricane Irene (1999) was "only" a Category 1 when it passed over this area, but it still created many problems - and 7 fatalities due to downed powerlines in standing water.

Let's wait for the 11 a.m. package to see what the NHC has to say...

Frank

[gatorcane]

as I expected a Hurricane watch has wisely been put into place for South Florida....and the ridge is building to the north that will push it W into Palm Beach/Dade/Broward.

[Frank2]

Chris, it looks like the broad center is indeed southeast of Nassau (or east of Andros), but, shear might be displacing the mid-level circulation to the northeast.

Frank

P.S. In looking at the center, it appears to be moving NNW.

[Frank2]

Well, the NHC states that the center is now at 24.7N 76.7W, and the motion NNW at 8 mph.

Frank

[dolphinslady]

as I expected a Hurricane watch has wisely been put into place for South Florida....and the ridge is building to the north that will push it W into Palm Beach/Dade/Broward.

When is the 'bend' going to begin to occur? How far south does the ridge have to come down before affecting it? It's surely not taking the turn as soon as they thought it would

I imagine the track later will move north later this evening, will see.

[deltadog03]

good point frank...the center is south of that most northern thunderstorm batch....

[DESTRUCTION5]

Well, the NHC states that the center is now at 24.7N 76.7W, and the motion NNW at 8 mph.

Frank

I think thats to far south Frank..What you think?

[Frank2]

Yes, and is why the NHC and OCM's stress not to focus on the center itself - if we draw a horizontal east-west line through the current center, there is very little weather found south of this line.

Frank

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yes, and is why the NHC and OCM's stress not to focus on the center itself - if we draw a horizontal east-west line through the current center, there is very little weather found south of this line.

Frank

Still would affect thier landfall pts...I think thier 50-75 Miles south

[Frank2]

Oops - the web site must be very busy - sorry for the duplicate posts.

No, the NHC plot does seem correct per the radar loop - I'm waiting for the TCD to see if they mention the mid-level circulation possibly being NE of the LLC.

Frank

[Frank2]

Oops - the web site must be very busy - sorry for the duplicate posts.

No, the NHC plot does seem correct per the radar loop - I'm waiting for the TCD to see if they mention the mid-level circulation possibly being NE of the LLC.

Frank

[Frank2]

True, but I must admit I don't agree entirely with the TCD - looking at the 6-hour visible loop, Katrina has increased forward speed (perhaps faster than 8), with the strongest convection already southeast of Grand Bahama Island, so, hopefully this will mean a much shorter time frame before crossing the Florida coast (if that happens).

Frank

P.S. Look only at the visible loop at this time of day, since it gives a true view of the weather - sometimes the IR can be misleading, since cirrus can give a false view of additional convection.

[SouthFloridawx]

True, but I must admit I don't agree entirely with the TCD - looking at the 6-hour visible loop, Katrina has increased forward speed (perhaps faster than 8), with the strongest convection already southeast of Grand Bahama Island, so, hopefully this will mean a much shorter time frame before crossing the Florida coast (if that happens).

Frank

Why do you say if that happens?