TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Brent]

Well if this holds true, a west coast florida hit with this intensity, I am leaving.

Also if this pans out like the models are indicating the dirty part or the strongest part of the system the right quadrant will affect the West Florida area.

Luis, we have at least 5 days, right?

Yes. Although the models seem to get a little faster each run.

[tracyswfla]

Well if this holds true, a west coast florida hit with this intensity, I am leaving.

Also if this pans out like the models are indicating the dirty part or the strongest part of the system the right quadrant will affect the West Florida area.

Luis, we have at least 5 days, right?

Yes. Although the models seem to get a little faster each run.

Brent you have been preaching an October Florida storm all year!!

[Brent]

Brent you have been preaching an October Florida storm all year!!

The reason is because

A. If one forms in October, it's almost certainly a Florida threat.
B. The primary spot for development is the Western Caribbean and
C. The Western Caribbean has been untouched for 3 months.

[dhweather]

Luis, thank you for doing - as always - a superb job moderating and
keeping these threads nicely organized. Bravo!!!

David

[cycloneye]

Luis, thank you for doing - as always - a superb job moderating and
keeping these threads nicely organized. Bravo!!!

David

Thanks David.

Can you imagine the forum with no moderators.

[Brent]

Luis, thank you for doing - as always - a superb job moderating and
keeping these threads nicely organized. Bravo!!!

David

Thanks David.

Can you imagine the forum with no moderators.

Not really...

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think Most of the modeling this morning is a bit west...Nothing crazy but the Tampa West thing seems very unlikely this time of year...I remember this with Irene...Biased all the way to landfall...I say Tampa East...I said about a week ago we would either get our major down here ala Michelle like or a Mid-Atlantic floater then out...I also said nothing else would affect the US And TD24 still has a shot at missing Fl to the east...But as time goes on that thought is diminishing quickly..

[hurricanefloyd5]

Luis, thank you for doing - as always - a superb job moderating and
keeping these threads nicely organized. Bravo!!!

David

Thanks David.

Can you imagine the forum with no moderators.

yes i can that would be a monsterous mess!!!!!!!!

[Scorpion]

Ominous model runs this morning. The trend is shifting further and further east, with the turn more pronounced. If the GFS verifies, I would be in for some very nasty weather. But I am most concerned about the potential phasing with the trough.

[wzrgirl1]

Ominous model runs this morning. The trend is shifting further and further east, with the turn more pronounced. If the GFS verifies, I would be in for some very nasty weather. But I am most concerned about the potential phasing with the trough.

would phasing cause a collision of air masses? I know that can't be good

[floridahurricaneguy]

If a lot people think biggest threat would be south then would I be alright in New Port Richey?

Matt

[Scorpion]

If a lot people think biggest threat would be south then would I be alright in New Port Richey?

Matt

No you still will get bad weather on the northern side of the storm.

[linkerweather]

Just a point about the northern side of the storm. I am not saying this would happen but my forecast got burned with Charley last year for TPA and points W and NW when the northwest semicircle was totally dry and virtually wind-free.

I, at this point am not going to estimate a landfall point 6 or 7 days out. That would be irresponsible of me to do so. But, with that said West central and SW Florida should be paying VERY close attention to it.

[jdray]

Talk about nightmare senario. This is the GFS 144 hours out......i sure hope this changes.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation[/url]

Tampa - Orlando - Jacksonville


Be a nice dollar amount for sure.

[wzrgirl1]

Just a point about the northern side of the storm. I am not saying this would happen but my forecast got burned with Charley last year for TPA and points W and NW when the northwest semicircle was totally dry and virtually wind-free.

I, at this point am not going to estimate a landfall point 6 or 7 days out. That would be irresponsible of me to do so. But, with that said West central and SW Florida should be paying VERY close attention to it.

shouldn't southeast florida pay pretty close attention as well....if the storm comes closer east and south then they would be on the worst side of the storm possibly right?

[dhweather]

Luis, thank you for doing - as always - a superb job moderating and
keeping these threads nicely organized. Bravo!!!

David

Thanks David.

Can you imagine the forum with no moderators.

I can imagine that. I also wouldn't bere here if it was that way!

[Scorpion]

Just a point about the northern side of the storm. I am not saying this would happen but my forecast got burned with Charley last year for TPA and points W and NW when the northwest semicircle was totally dry and virtually wind-free.

I, at this point am not going to estimate a landfall point 6 or 7 days out. That would be irresponsible of me to do so. But, with that said West central and SW Florida should be paying VERY close attention to it.

shouldn't southeast florida pay pretty close attention as well....if the storm comes closer east and south then they would be on the worst side of the storm possibly right?

Yes we will get some pretty bad weather. It depends on the strength of the trough, it could come in at Key West and then extreme SW FL and exit in SE or Central FL. If that happened we would get the worst conditions.

[senorpepr]

Look at the outflow toward the center of circulation...



I wouldn't be surprised it recon finds Fred's wife in there...

[SkeetoBite]

Talk about nightmare senario. This is the GFS 144 hours out......i sure hope this changes.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation[/url]

Tampa - Orlando - Jacksonville


Be a nice dollar amount for sure.

Don't forget about the secret lab in Lakeland....

[wzrgirl1]

or Pebble's mom