Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cinlfla]

I know it's not coming here though, as I changed the oil and put the generator up for the season.

LOL, you might want to have ready in case you need it. Stay safe

[stormandan28]

I think if it was moving faster it would have a better chance to hit say sarasota or northward but since its moving slow It will probably be a extreme south florida hit.

[LanceW]

Thanks. (Maybe it's just wishful thinking. My way of sending it elsewhere.)

LOL, you might want to have ready in case you need it. Stay safe [/quote]

[Zadok]

GFDL speeds it up and puts it over sarasota

Well i can rest a little bit easier tonight in West Palm.[/img]

[ronjon]

wow - I just noticed - how often do the LBAR & GFDL agree? first time i can remember.

[Blown Away]

Now that the models seem to have a better fix on Wilma. Will we see the models continue shifting R and ultimately steer Wilma S and E of the peninsula. It's going to be hard to miss the Keys at this point.

[Weatherfreak14]

At 8pm advisory, the GFDL looks still at the tampa area.

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 172359
A. TROPICAL STORM WILMA (TWENTY-FOUR)
B. 17/2331Z (110)
C. 15.7N/3
D. 80.3W/1
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS -17/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .85 USING THE LOG10
SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT...BOTH PT
AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T4.2 (UNIFORM CDO CLD RGN)

LAURENTI



Air Force sat estimate.

[O Town]

So IF she decides to come toward Florida, it is looking like a Saturday event right? Why do they always come on the weekend. It is odd. We had plans to go to Cypress Gardens for a halloween event. Guess we will be preparing instead for a hurricane. Man I thought central Fl. was gonna get off this year with no major canes. I hope I am still right. But I think we will fill up the tanks for the generator just in case.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tight system we got here. Nice outflow over the southern side with deep convection over the center. I expect to see that eye by tomarrow morning....


Yes its no longer strengthing slowly....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The northern Gulf above 27 north can not support above a cat2...I looked at the SST's maps/Tchp. Maybe a slight chance of a major into Tampa if it moves in from the south-southeast. So most of the northern gulf no more then a cat2...Thats if some weird storm like Vince did not form...Which the water doe's not need to be so warm.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Tight system we got here. Nice outflow over the southern side with deep convection over the center. I expect to see that eye by tomarrow morning....


Yes its no longer strengthing slowly....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

right now it doesn't seem to be strengthing at all! Its been at the same pressure since 5pm and same winds since around that time as well! However it is continueing to organize and once it can fight off the dry air which it seems to be doing right now it should start to strengthing quickly!

[cycloneye]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
17/2345 UTC 15.7N 80.1W T3.5/3.5 WILMA -- Atlantic Ocean


17/1745 UTC 15.7N 79.6W T3.5/3.5 WILMA -- Atlantic Ocean


The first reading of SSD dvorak sat estimate is the latest.As you can see the afternoon position was 15.7n-79.6w but tonight it is at 15.7n-80.1w so it's starting to move WESTWARD

[kevin]

Tight system we got here. Nice outflow over the southern side with deep convection over the center. I expect to see that eye by tomarrow morning....


Yes its no longer strengthing slowly....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

right now it doesn't seem to be strengthing at all! Its been at the same pressure since 5pm and same winds since around that time as well! However it is continueing to organize and once it can fight off the dry air which it seems to be doing right now it should start to strengthing quickly!

There is no plane there to measure the pressure.

[tracyswfla]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
17/2345 UTC 15.7N 80.1W T3.5/3.5 WILMA -- Atlantic Ocean


17/1745 UTC 15.7N 79.6W T3.5/3.5 WILMA -- Atlantic Ocean


The first reading of SSD dvorak sat estimate is the latest.As you can see the afternoon position was 15.7n-79.6w but tonight it is at 15.7n-80.1w so it's starting to move WESTWARD

That is predicted.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I feel that The Keys are in the largest danger of recieving Wilma as a major hurricane. This is because, as the NHC noted, as soon as Wilma starts the northeasterly turn conditions will deteriorate around the storm and it will likely weaken some. It would follow that the longer the Cane is over the Gulf of Mexico, the more weakening would occur. Therefore, The Florida Keys, if hit directly, represent a path that would have Wilma over the Gulf the shortest time before landfall. I would like to defuse the "Even a Cat 1 can do damage" crowd by noting that my concern in this post is for those that have the possibility of sustaining catastrophic damage. I fully realize that a weaker Wilma hitting further up the Florida coast could still cause significant damage.

[Stratosphere747]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
17/2345 UTC 15.7N 80.1W T3.5/3.5 WILMA -- Atlantic Ocean


17/1745 UTC 15.7N 79.6W T3.5/3.5 WILMA -- Atlantic Ocean


The first reading of SSD dvorak sat estimate is the latest.As you can see the afternoon position was 15.7n-79.6w but tonight it is at 15.7n-80.1w so it's starting to move WESTWARD

That's only a estimate, correct?

[cycloneye]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
17/2345 UTC 15.7N 80.1W T3.5/3.5 WILMA -- Atlantic Ocean


17/1745 UTC 15.7N 79.6W T3.5/3.5 WILMA -- Atlantic Ocean


The first reading of SSD dvorak sat estimate is the latest.As you can see the afternoon position was 15.7n-79.6w but tonight it is at 15.7n-80.1w so it's starting to move WESTWARD

That's only a estimate, correct?

Yes as no plane is there now.

[Noah]

I think if it was moving faster it would have a better chance to hit say sarasota or northward but since its moving slow It will probably be a extreme south florida hit.

IM in sarasota!!!!!

[Weatherboy1]

one possibility is that if/when Wilma approaches FL to make landfall, she will be on a weakening trend. As some have noted, the Gulf is definitely cooling down. But more importantly, the steering mechanism is going to be a strong front with a bunch of cold, dry air behind it. Depending on the interaction of wilma and that front, she could entrain dry and cold air as she hooks to the NE or ENE, therefore weakening some. Or at least, that's my educated guess. I see only a very slim chance of her making a FL landfall at greater than Cat 2 strength. Moreover, she'll be accelerating as she approaches so the chance of a massive, slow-moving, flooding storm is diminished.