94L Invest Comments Thread #2

[SouthFloridawx]

BTW: Is anyone seeing this new blow up of convection coming off the Yucatan? This could reach TX by tomorrow or Tuesday if it holds together:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Not trying to poo-poo your excitement ... but isn't that a diurnal event? I seem to see thunderstorms rolling westward off the Yucatan peninsula every evening about this time.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 022349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 02 2006

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER YUCATAN ALONG 88W/89W S
OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR
A LARGE BLOWUP OVER TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF CENTRAL
AMERICA N OF 16N AND OVER WESTERN YUCATAN TONIGHT. THESE TSTMS
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHORTLY AND DIE
OUT OVERNIGHT.

[Air Force Met]

BTW: Is anyone seeing this new blow up of convection coming off the Yucatan? This could reach TX by tomorrow or Tuesday if it holds together:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

That's kind of a nightly thing out there this time of year. Expect them to die with the heating of the day.

Edit: Oopps...see some have already answered it.

[wxman57]

BTW: Is anyone seeing this new blow up of convection coming off the Yucatan? This could reach TX by tomorrow or Tuesday if it holds together:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

That's kind of a nightly thing out there this time of year. Expect them to die with the heating of the day.

Edit: Oopps...see some have already answered it.

That would be the wave responsible for 93L now crossing the Yucatan. I've been tracking it in the 93L thread. It had no convection for the past 2 days but it has moved steadily westward. Now that it's slowed down and moved out of the dry air, it's producing some very heavy storms that will be moving into the BoC.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 030201
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
DIMINISHING.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



The final epilog from NHC.

[Air Force Met]

BTW: Is anyone seeing this new blow up of convection coming off the Yucatan? This could reach TX by tomorrow or Tuesday if it holds together:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

That's kind of a nightly thing out there this time of year. Expect them to die with the heating of the day.

Edit: Oopps...see some have already answered it.

That would be the wave responsible for 93L now crossing the Yucatan. I've been tracking it in the 93L thread. It had no convection for the past 2 days but it has moved steadily westward. Now that it's slowed down and moved out of the dry air, it's producing some very heavy storms that will be moving into the BoC.

Yeah...but it is getting help from the normal heating from the Yuck. Tops are already warming...right on schedule and the current convection is being enhanced a little by the instability of the wave...but is nothing that abnormal for that area. Should be played out in another couple of hours.

You have another blow up along the extreme southwest side of the Yuck...but that appears to be an intersection of the wave axis and an outflow boundry from the north AND another from the south. Expect that blow up to follow the wave axis as the boundries collide and move more west or WSW.

[CHRISTY]

BTW: Is anyone seeing this new blow up of convection coming off the Yucatan? This could reach TX by tomorrow or Tuesday if it holds together:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

That's kind of a nightly thing out there this time of year. Expect them to die with the heating of the day.

Edit: Oopps...see some have already answered it.

That would be the wave responsible for 93L now crossing the Yucatan. I've been tracking it in the 93L thread. It had no convection for the past 2 days but it has moved steadily westward. Now that it's slowed down and moved out of the dry air, it's producing some very heavy storms that will be moving into the BoC.

Yeah...but it is getting help from the normal heating from the Yuck. Tops are already warming...right on schedule and the current convection is being enhanced a little by the instability of the wave...but is nothing that abnormal for that area. Should be played out in another couple of hours.

You have another blow up along the extreme southwest side of the Yuck...but that appears to be an intersection of the wave axis and an outflow boundry from the north AND another from the south. Expect that blow up to follow the wave axis as the boundries collide and move more west or WSW.

Hey air force met things are quite in general across the atlantic basin,do expect a ramp up come late july towards august?i was thinkin the other day this season might end up lookin like 2004 maybe?whats ur thoughts?

[Air Force Met]

Hey air force met things are quite in general across the atlantic basin,do expect a ramp up come late july towards august?i was thinkin the other day this season might end up lookin like 2004 maybe?whats ur thoughts?

My thoughts are that nobody really knows the answer to that question...and if they tell you they do...they are either 1) lying 2) guessing or 3) Hoping.

Climo and common sense says..."Yes."

[CHRISTY]

Hey air force met things are quite in general across the atlantic basin,do expect a ramp up come late july towards august?i was thinkin the other day this season might end up lookin like 2004 maybe?whats ur thoughts?

My thoughts are that nobody really knows the answer to that question...and if they tell you they do...they are either 1) lying 2) guessing or 3) Hoping.

Climo and common sense says..."Yes."

after listening to Jeff masters the other night he really put things in perspective....with the way the current current upper-level jet stream Is right now it should keep shear high in the main development regions.

[gatorcane]

Looks like 94L is no longer

If you look at north america water vapor loop, there is a tap of moisture all the way from the ITCZ flowing straight north into texas. It is amazing!

Looks like that tap abruptly ran dry - I can't believe that it suddenly vanished, looks like not nearly as much rains as anticipated.

[Extremeweatherguy]

10:30pm HWO for Houston:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1030 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-032100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
1030 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON

VERY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE STREAMING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEGIN MOVING
INLAND LATE TONIGHT TOWARD MORNING. THE THREAT OF FLOODING RAINFALL
WILL BE INCREASING NEAR THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. SEE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

EXTREMELY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN LONGER.

FOR MONDAY: MOISTURE VALUES WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER AND
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. VALUES OF THESE MAGNITUDES ARE KNOWN TO
PRODUCE TORRENTIAL 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. ANY SLOW
MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT CAN CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR IN LOW LYING AND URBANIZED
AREAS. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERNS HAVE BROUGHT LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES. IT APPEARS THAT AREAS SOUTH AND WEST WILL
SEE THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN ON MONDAY...BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. AGAIN...SEE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

MOISTURE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ON THURSDAY...BUT
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

[Thunder44]

099
ABNT20 KNHC 030919
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON JUL 3 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE GRADUALLY MOVING ONSHORE THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS
COASTS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. HOWEVER... LOCALLLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THESE AREAS TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

It doesn't look like we will be having that plane go out today.