96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[skysummit]

It looks like out little wave may be trying to "blob up" again. LOL May be only temporary, but it's giving it another try!

[cycloneye]

Has anyone noticed that the GFDL on this invest has not run for 32hrs? No appearance of this low on the deterministic models for the last 32 hrs?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
That sort of is a hint, this invest was dropped this morning by NHC, at least by noon, don't you think?

There haved been no runs of the BAM models since 12:00z this morning.Hmmm a sign that they will drop it?

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rgb.html

Looking at the RGB it kind of looks like a mid level circulation has developed with all that convection it had.


I could be wrong but, looking at the last couple shots of the visible I would say it's possible.

[Jim Cantore]

Anything can happen

I scrolled down too fast and saw that, and thought we had a new depression! And no, the fact that it wouldn't have been TD 5 never entered my head.

Sorry, I should of said something

[ronjon]

The system is flaring up some tonite. It looks to be moving under an upper level high so I'm not sure about all the talk about dramatic shear. Conditions would be favorable under the upper level high probably for the next couple of days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[rjgator]

THe 72 Hour Euro actually has this as a low still of the Windward Islands.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 6071012!!/

[canegrl04]

I have yet to see this wave go "poof". despite the fluctuations in convection.All of you who said this is a goner will be eating poof crow if its still intact by wednesday

[skysummit]

Well, that's the deal. It's only a wave so it really can't go "poof". The t-storms will most likely again diminish late tonight or tomorrow, and it'll be the same thing all over again tomorrow....."poof", "no more Invest", "zero chance of organization". It's only a wave and people have to remember that .

[Aquawind]

poof crow

Extra Gravy anyone...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

People we got a depression in the Eastern Pacific. Its time to watch that, in wait and see what this doe's.

[cheezyWXguy]

I knew it wasnt dead...its not surprising, but convection or not, the structure of the wave has been getting increasingly better

[skysummit]

There's a lot of dry air to the north, however, it's not going north. Plus, there's not that much of a circulation to pull that dry air in. I see a decent amount of moisture for this to wave to work with. If only there wasn't shear, it would have a chance. Who knows....one day! LOL

LSU WV Image

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

[Thunder44]

People we got a depression in the Eastern Pacific. Its time to watch that, in wait and see what this doe's.

Yeah, but it will probably not develop much more and head harmlessly out into the East and Central Pacific.

[SouthFloridawx]

People we got a depression in the Eastern Pacific. Its time to watch that, in wait and see what this doe's.

Yeah, but it will probably not develop much more and head harmlessly out into the East and Central Pacific.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 12.5N 110.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 12.8N 111.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 13.2N 113.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 13.6N 114.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 14.0N 115.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 14.8N 118.6W 60 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 16.0N 124.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Not too bad for having nothing there for a while.

[jaxfladude]

People we got a depression in the Eastern Pacific. Its time to watch that, in wait and see what this doe's.

Yeah, but it will probably not develop much more and head harmlessly out into the East and Central Pacific.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

Just The Way That I Like It.

[bvigal]

I've been forecasting wave heights in that region since 1980 and can tell you that a 5-6 foot wind wave is a bit below average. On the south side of the Bermuda high, winds are usually in the 20-25 kts. With a very long fetch, that wind speed supports a wave height in the 7-9 foot range with about a 7 second period. As for the Gulf of Mexico, July is typically the month with the lowest wind and seas. Not uncommon to have winds close to 10 kts or less and 1-2 ft waves in July in the Gulf.

Here's what I said in my answer to her question: "5-7ft, or even 8ft in those areas are not unusual for this time of year." The last 45 days (this time of year) of buoy 41041, 1099 readings, converted from meters to feet, divided by the total, comes to an average of 6.9ft, pretty close to "7 or even 8 ft". Higher and we have a swell coming in, and winds, too. Mariners pay close attention, on a daily basis, to actual wave heights, and how they compare to forecasts. It's a constant topic of conversation.

You corrected me earlier today about the barometric pressure of the tropical wave. I posted a reply, explaining that I was only pointing out what was on the surface maps produced by the TAFB. Both surface maps were linked in my original post, which you must have missed somehow, or you wouldn't have thought I said the low was 1008mb today, which I did not. I pointed out that the 24hr surface forecast at 12z showed it as 1008 (at 12z July 11).

I'm sure you can understand how it feels to be misquoted, and wanting to set the record straight. Your lack of reply to my post about the wave pressure, and then perhaps thinking I said 5-6ft about the wave height data (just a few posts later), makes me wonder if posibly I've done something to offend you. Have I? (Sometimes I can sound very blunt, when I'm overtired, I get lazy typing.) If so, please let me take this opportunity to heartily and truly apologize.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060711 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060711 0000 060711 1200 060712 0000 060712 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.6N 48.3W 12.4N 50.4W 12.8N 52.2W 13.0N 54.1W
BAMM 11.6N 48.3W 12.6N 50.9W 13.4N 53.1W 14.0N 55.6W
A98E 11.6N 48.3W 12.3N 51.0W 13.1N 53.7W 14.0N 56.0W
LBAR 11.6N 48.3W 12.6N 51.3W 13.5N 54.1W 14.2N 57.1W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060713 0000 060714 0000 060715 0000 060716 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.2N 55.9W 14.0N 59.8W 15.6N 63.7W 16.5N 66.7W
BAMM 14.6N 58.1W 16.0N 63.5W 18.0N 69.1W 19.3N 74.5W
A98E 14.8N 58.2W 17.2N 62.3W 19.4N 66.1W 21.1N 69.9W
LBAR 14.8N 60.0W 16.5N 65.8W 18.6N 70.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 26KTS 24KTS 22KTS 25KTS
DSHP 26KTS 24KTS 22KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.6N LONCUR = 48.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 45.5W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 42.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


They came out very late but here is the 00:00z run of the BAM models.

[deltadog03]

not that I put a whole lot of stock in these tropical models, specially when there is no LLC, they are even getting weaker with each run....BYE BYE MR. wave....

[southerngale]

Bump...

Why are you bumping this 11 minutes after a post? It's not like it was at the bottom, or even the middle of the page.