Hurricane Daniel (05E) in CPAC

HurricaneHunter914 · #341 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:04 am

If only the EPAC had there own Recon, but the Pacific is so wide that it would take them more than day to get to Daniel.

Cyclenall · #342 Postby **Cyclenall** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:11 am

I was about to post but a stupid power outage got my computer! :grr:

I will post soon.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #343 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:12 am

Isabel did not have that cold of cloud tops these kind of storms normally have warmer clouds. So yes this is a cat5. I remember tracking Isabel looked just like this with the red ring with the most intense convection over the southern part.

HurricaneHunter914 · #344 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:16 am

Maybe they will upgrade Daniel to a Cat-5 in the After Season Reports.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #345 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:16 am

Also don't believe Katrina got above 6.5 so?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #346 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:17 am

I think they will upgrade it at 5am.

HurricaneHunter914 · #347 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:19 am

Wait a minute. Does the Epac have 11 PM Advisories because I beleive the 11 PM should be out by now.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #348 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:20 am

Its at 2am.

HurricaneHunter914 · #349 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:25 am

The 2 AM will probably say that Daniel's winds have increased to 155 mph.

Cyclenall · #350 Postby **Cyclenall** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:26 am

benny wrote:ODTs were over 7 with Isabel... cloud tops haven't gotten as cold in Daniel. Let's not go over the top yet. Beautiful yes. Isabel strength... not on the basis of satellite only.

Umm, what are you talking about? I don't know what ODTs are and the cloud tops in Daniel are in fact just as cold as Isabel's. I have images of Isabel's cloud tops and they are almost the same but Daniel had some more deep red convection around the eye at certain times. I say, it's time to go over the top because we have a CAT5 on our hands. Now, even if some of these tools we use show Daniel isn't a CAT5, I'm not sold at all. I can tell at this point this isn't a category 4. CAT4's never look this good (except Floyd).

Isabel did not have that cold of cloud tops these kind of storms normally have warmer clouds. So yes this is a cat5. I remember tracking Isabel looked just like this with the red ring with the most intense convection over the southern part.

Yep, I have the image too.

Maybe they will upgrade Daniel to a Cat-5 in the After Season Reports.

They better, if they don't soon of course.

I think they will upgrade it at 5am.

That's what I was thinking.

More by me soon.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #351 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:27 am

I will say this that eye is perfect in this looks 100 percent like Isabel and Katrina. In for what kind of hurricane this is there is not normally super deep convection around the eye. I remember tracking Isabel so I know how she looked.

I say 145 knots right now for sure.

HurricaneHunter914 · #352 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:31 am

Usually when there is no recon, the NHC like to stay conservative with their numbers instead of jumping the gun. IMO they'll graudually increase his wind speeds over the next 2-3 advisories.

clfenwi · #353 Postby **clfenwi** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:35 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:How about Hurricane Emily of last year, I mean she didn't have as as good as a SAT presentation as Daniel, but she was upgraded.

Emily did receive 7.0 from TAFB (140) knots at 2345Z on the 16th and 0545 on the 17th. Recon did not support the first estimate, but did briefly support the latter.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/atcf/archive ... 052005.dat

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/di ... .025.shtml?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/di ... .026.shtml?

Cyclenall · #354 Postby **Cyclenall** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:35 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:IMO they'll graudually increase his wind speeds over the next 2-3 advisories.

They have been doing that this whole time :lol:

. Today is a perfect example of this.

Usually when there is no recon, the NHC like to stay conservative with their numbers instead of jumping the gun.

That's what I have found in many Epac systems as well. Atlantic, not really.

Current Strength IMO: 145 Knots

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #355 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:37 am

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

Really no bands any more just a intense eye.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #356 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:39 am

This is one of the best formed eyes a hurricaen can have.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

HurricaneHunter914 · #357 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:39 am

I just saw the comparison a few pages back Cyclenall and I think Daniel deserves an upgrade. I'm going to sound crazy, but IMO Daniel is a better looking Annular than Isabel.

#358 Postby **AJC3** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:41 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Also don't believe Katrina got above 6.5 so?

The CI number for Katrina peaked at 7.5 IIRC. I don't know if the data T-numbers were higher or not.

clfenwi · #359 Postby **clfenwi** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:41 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Also don't believe Katrina got above 6.5 so?

The 0545Z estimates on the morning of the 28th were 6, 6.5, and 7, with 6.5 being the one supported by recon. The following round of estimates were unaminous 7.0s, which matched recon. Katrina did receive a 7.5 from TAFB on the next round of estimates, while the other two agencies stayed with 7.0

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/atcf/archive ... 122005.dat
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/di ... .020.shtml?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/di ... .022.shtml?

HurricaneHunter914 · #360 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:44 am

Does anyone have a loop of Daniel that starts from when he just formed to now?

Hurricane Daniel (05E) in CPAC

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