Hurricane Ioke thread

[WmE]

000
WTPA32 PHFO 242049
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
1100 AM HST THU AUG 24 2006

...MAJOR HURRICANE IOKE INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 4 SYSTEM FAR WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 173.3 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 1015 MILES WEST OF HONOLULU.

IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...18.8 N...173.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB.


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[CrazyC83]

Could we have a Category 5 brewing???

[WmE]

The discussion says that further intensification is possible.

[JonathanBelles]

come on ioki!!!

[CrazyC83]

If it reaches the dateline, is it 150 mph sustained for 10 minutes or 1 minute that makes it a Super Typhoon?

[senorpepr]

If it reaches the dateline, is it 150 mph sustained for 10 minutes or 1 minute that makes it a Super Typhoon?

130KT or greater 1-min avg.

[P.K.]

RSMC Tokyo don't use the term supertyphoon at all. Ten minute averages are used once it crosses over.

[CrazyC83]

GFDL takes Ioke to 156 knots (>180 mph) and 914 mb! http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Swimdude]

This hurricane bears little resemblence to Katrina, whose eye was much larger, or Wilma, whose eye was MUCH smaller... But it does remind me of the shape, size, and intensity of Rita.

[CrazyC83]

This hurricane bears little resemblence to Katrina, whose eye was much larger, or Wilma, whose eye was MUCH smaller... But it does remind me of the shape, size, and intensity of Rita.

It looks more like Hurricane Daniel, and is starting to look more like Cyclone Monica (IMO, the greatest-looking storm ever)

[Cyclenall]

But it does remind me of the shape, size, and intensity of Rita.

I thought of that 3 hours ago. I noticed it had a very Rita like appearance so I made a picture comparison of the 2:



Sorry for the size. As you can see, very much alike at one point but Rita had a bit more clear eye but just a tiny bit. This shot of Ioke, the deep convection (red color) is a bit weak on one side but that was just the 1 frame.

New % chance of Hurricane Ioke becoming a:

Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm, Hurricane, Category 1 Hurricane, Category 2 Hurricane, Category 3 Hurricane, Category 4 Hurricane: 100%
Category 5 Hurricane: 45% (The chances of the CPHC saying so anyways)

I would estimate the strength of Ioke right now is 130 knots or maybe higher. The deep convection that shows up as red on the AVN had a break around the eye making the ring broken. I'm not sure if this is a temporary thing. Hopefully it will go back to a full thick ring.

[HurricaneBill]

RSMC Tokyo don't use the term supertyphoon at all. Ten minute averages are used once it crosses over.

The JMA may be official, but I've always used the JTWC.

I'm amazed at how attitudes towards the JTWC have evolved on this board over the past year. It seems like people would post JTWC advisories on here without as much as a peep. Suddenly, this year, someone posts a JTWC advisory and it's immediately cast aside as if it was just made-up. Just because it's unofficial, it doesn't necessarily mean it is inaccurate.

Is it wrong to use both?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree I like the JTWC to....Even so there forecasters are not pro mets. I think unpro can be good to.

As for that satellite this cane looks just like Rita. I would not be suprized if this thing was 145 knots.

[senorpepr]

RSMC Tokyo don't use the term supertyphoon at all. Ten minute averages are used once it crosses over.

The JMA may be official, but I've always used the JTWC.

I'm amazed at how attitudes towards the JTWC have evolved on this board over the past year. It seems like people would post JTWC advisories on here without as much as a peep. Suddenly, this year, someone posts a JTWC advisory and it's immediately cast aside as if it was just made-up. Just because it's unofficial, it doesn't necessarily mean it is inaccurate.

Is it wrong to use both?

It's also amazing how people just disregard the JMA completely when they are, statistically, better than the JTWC.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would say 145 knots for this...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/avn-l.jpg

[JonathanBelles]

I would say 145 knots for this...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/avn-l.jpg

i wish!

[Derek Ortt]

many of the JTWC forecasters are not degreed mets though, unlike the JMA

JT also does tend to overstate the intensities of typhoons not that infrequently

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Putting this with that picture of rita it looks no different. Can you tell me one thing different besides rita had recon?

[HurricaneBill]

It's also amazing how people just disregard the JMA completely when they are, statistically, better than the JTWC.

OK, apparently I worded that wrong, but I never said I completely disregard JMA. I like to use both and compare for myself. Keep in mind, I am not a pro met and my little rant was unwarranted apparently. So, if I'm foolish for also using JTWC as well as JMA, then I'm sorry.

[Cyclenall]

Putting this with that picture of rita it looks no different. Can you tell me one thing different besides rita had recon?

There isn't a difference. The only thing I can think of is a tiny bit less impressive outer-rainbands. I doubt that means much though. Maybe the T numbers were different?