Models show more active Atlantic

[HurricaneHunter914]

Hopefully this African Wave will change my mind about this season being a dud.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif
That should take care of any surface features.

[Scorpion]

Oh, good news. Now we'll have to see whether the GFS still shows this on the 18Z run.

[MiamiensisWx]

The system continues to look rather impressive on water vapor and visible imagery, and is showing signs of weak convective consolidation and organization slowly occurring due to favorable middle to upper-level divergence, weak diffluence, and weaker shear. Mid-level drier air has continued to gradually mix out as well, with low latitude and convergence continuing to slowly help in convective bursts and maintenance, as evidenced in the imagery shown. As a possible MLC may reform, the system may be a fair candidate for our next INVEST and may be declared a wave/possible weak low by tomorrow or in coming days.

In addition to the synoptics mentioned, weak anticyclonic flow and divergence established may also aid in gradual development.

[calculatedrisk]

Looks pretty good on IR:

[gopherfan21]

It just looks like a blob wave to me. Should rather wait before anyone gets too excited about it.

[MiamiensisWx]

It just looks like a blob wave to me. Should rather wait before anyone gets too excited about it.

True; however, compared to earlier waves, overall middle to upper-level flow is more favorable and may prove to be so over and ahead of the wave. Due to this, as well as the other favorable synoptics mentioned (including lower latitude and less mid-level drier air and SAL intrusion), slow development may be aided. Convection, consequently, has also continued to maintain itself after leaving the coastline now.

[DESTRUCTION5]

It just looks like a blob wave to me. Should rather wait before anyone gets too excited about it.

Big difference here is Tstorms are developing not diminishing..

[gatorcane]

difference now is that it is the end of August, so chances keep going up for development out there - it looks good to me and it is south enough to have the warmer SSTs to work with...

I'm liking this wave.

[MiamiensisWx]

In addition, several waves in past years under similar synoptics this time of year that have spawned named systems were very similar to this system in terms of general convective maintenance and surrounding synoptics. I believe Frances (2004) is a somewhat good example, as well as several others. ITCZ proximity may help, too.

[SouthAlabamaWX]

Oh, good news. Now we'll have to see whether the GFS still shows this on the 18Z run.

The 06 Z and 18 Z are not the best GFS models to look at since it contains limited data. I would stick with the 12 Z and 00 Z and look for trends.

[gopherfan21]

eh I want to see it get away from all that dry air to its north first

[cycloneye]

Looking at the low latitude the area is now it sends me flashbacks about when Georges was developing that far south.And the rest is history.

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE SEP 15 1998

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM A TROPICAL
WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.9 WEST
OR ABOUT 400 MILES....660 KM...SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH ...33 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION... 9.0 N... 25.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

AVILA

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looking at the low latitude the area is now it sends me flashbacks about when Georges was developing that far south.And the rest is history.

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE SEP 15 1998

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM A TROPICAL
WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.9 WEST
OR ABOUT 400 MILES....660 KM...SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH ...33 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION... 9.0 N... 25.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

AVILA

As Much as i hate to say it PR is due Luis..

[ConvergenceZone]

Looking at the low latitude the area is now it sends me flashbacks about when Georges was developing that far south.And the rest is history.

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE SEP 15 1998

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM A TROPICAL
WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.9 WEST
OR ABOUT 400 MILES....660 KM...SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH ...33 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION... 9.0 N... 25.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

AVILA

Man Luis!!! You got me all excited LOL. I didn't notice the date and my eyes zoomed immediately to the "tropical depression has formed" lol... and then I felt the excitement quickly vanish when I saw the date...

[SouthAlabamaWX]

[cycloneye]

ConvergenceZone,that is why I posted a sentence above the advisory to let know all it is about Georges.

[ConvergenceZone]

:lol:

hehe I know, pretty sad when I get that excited over a depression, but hey, it's something...I'll take anything these days....

[MiamiensisWx]

Next GFS run coming out soon within the next few hours or so should be interesting on the initialization...

[wxwatcher91]

My reaction exactly! LOL
I just saw
"...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... "

ok now that my blood pressure is up...