Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[skysummit]

The models have constantly been flipping back and forth so we can't say it's a Mexico storm yet. They'll likely flip back again....especially if TD5 relocates its center to a new location.

[SWFLA_CANE]

The models will continue to flip flop. Each run will be differant one run heading north and the next heading south. See if it survives the shear thenworry about where it will go. We have nothing but time on our hands.

[gatorcane]

The 12z BAMs show a potent ridge again....they've flipped back to the west.

Well maybe its a ridge that is supposed to build. Right now here in South Florida there are still westerly winds and no easterlies. That means no ridge right now. Wave haven't had a ridge that strong all summer. I doubt it will be that strong. The BAMS are jumping to quickly.

[jlauderdal]

The 12z BAMs show a potent ridge again....they've flipped back to the west.

wow, guess a Mexico storm it is...I didn't think the ridge would be that strong. Well, let's hope it doesn't hit the populated areas on the mexican coast IF it does develop.

lets see what the gloabls do with it before we call this a mexico system.

[Stormcenter]

The models have constantly been flipping back and forth so we can't say it's a Mexico storm yet. They'll likely flip back again....especially if TD5 relocates its center to a new location.

I agree, the models will go back and forth several more times but by Sunday they should have a better handle on whatever TD5 is by then.

[sevenleft]

I smell upper air recon missions in the future for this storm....

[SouthFloridawx]

Well first time looking at this thing this morning and 2.5/2.5 sound like an upgrade at 11.

[Cape Verde]

Thanks, Matt-hurricanewatcher.

This is the most informative weather forum I've encountered, and most members are willing to share their knowledge.

[jlauderdal]

The 12z BAMs show a potent ridge again....they've flipped back to the west.

Well maybe its a ridge that is supposed to build. Right now here in South Florida there are still westerly winds and no easterlies. That means no ridge right now. Wave haven't had a ridge that strong all summer. I doubt it will be that strong. The BAMS are jumping to quickly.

gatorcane, are you sure you are living in sofla, the ridge has been very strong since the first part of july, we have had easterlies for a good chunk of the last 60 days

[BensonTCwatcher]

If the anticyclone pans out, you bet the models will flip all over the place. The ULL at 77W looks to keep moving west at the same or greater speed than the system right now. There appears to be a "gap" with low shear all the way to Hispanola...

[cpdaman]

"jlauderdal" weaker easterlies= haven't had a strong ridge= not many days of decent south east or east chop at the beaches

[Derek Ortt]

a lot fo those sat estimates are 100 miles too far east and are not reliable

[DESTRUCTION5]

gatorcane, are you sure you are living in sofla, the ridge has been very strong since the first part of july, we have had easterlies for a good chunk of the last 60 days

? Been SW Flow all week? Major storms bee along the East Coast..

[TheShrimper]

Check out latest vis. image on the floater. Zoom in and hit forecast points. Look just northeast of the L. Am I seeing the center?

[Bailey1777]

Derek is there still a LLC. Also do you see this getting sheared apart today? Thanks.

[gatorcane]

gatorcane, are you sure you are living in sofla, the ridge has been very strong since the first part of july, we have had easterlies for a good chunk of the last 60 days

? Been SW Flow all week? Major storms bee along the East Coast..

Exactly I live right along the beaches and the winds this morning have been westerly and all week we have seen storms rolling in from the Everglades. Most of this summer has featured weak easterlies and cold fronts pushing as far south as South Florida (remember a month ago)???

I see no evidence of a ridge unless it is going to build in over the weekend and next week

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami Still Showing Concern for TD #5:

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THIS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHATEVER
HAPPENS WITH TD#5. OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS THE SYSTEM (AS
A HURRICANE) OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA BY TUE EVENING. GFS
SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A WEAKER SYSTEM AND IN DOING SO...IT HAS A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAINFALL AROUND IT AND AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA
BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVE D IN
THIS FORECAST...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE
INDICATING SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNTIL WE GET
A BETTER INDICATION OF WHAT AND HOW TD#5 IS GOING TO BEHAVE.

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami Still Showing Concern for TD #5:

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THIS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHATEVER
HAPPENS WITH TD#5. OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS THE SYSTEM (AS
A HURRICANE) OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA BY TUE EVENING. GFS
SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A WEAKER SYSTEM AND IN DOING SO...IT HAS A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAINFALL AROUND IT AND AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA
BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVE D IN
THIS FORECAST...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE
INDICATING SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNTIL WE GET
A BETTER INDICATION OF WHAT AND HOW TD#5 IS GOING TO BEHAVE.

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami is also showing the building ridge:

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WEST TO SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEX CONTINUING UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL MIGRATE NORTH...SO LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEED. THIS WILL
HELP EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PENETRATE FURTHER INLAND PUSHING
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER INLAND /WEST COAST AREAS. WL KEEP SCT
POPS OVER EAST COAST DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER WILL INDICATED
HIGHEST POPS INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

[wxman57]

If you remove the climo "models" and the non-dynamic BAM models, then you see a track shift eastward: