TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[Mac]

Well, I would agree that the term is abused. Obviously they can't create their own atmosphere. But they can become more immune to negative environmental influences.

[Wx_Warrior]

half a hurricane huh? Wish ol Doc would have come to Sabine Pass, Beaumont, Orange, Vinton and Cameron La that Saturday.

[jasons2k]

half a hurricane huh? Wish ol Doc would have come to Sabine Pass, Beaumont, Orange, Vinton and Cameron La that Saturday.

Sorry - I corrected my post b/c he isn't a Doc.

But when he was here in Houston back in May, he showed slides of Rita at landfall. The south side of the storm essentially disappeared due to dry air. He called it "half a hurricane". Don't shoot the messenger, that's just what the man said.

[WxGuy1]

My my cursory review of the GFS upper-level forecasts, it looks as though Ernesto may head northwestward in the southern Gulf, then turn northward and maybe northeastward as it gets into the central and northern Gulf. As others have mentioned, a moderate-amplitude trough is forecast to progress across the central and eastern United States, with the GFS indicating the upperlevel trough axis from a Chicago to Houston line by Wednesday. With the trough upstream of much of the central and northern Gulf, there is moderate southwesterly upperlevel flow forecast across central and northern Gulf of Mexico areas. As time progesses, upper-level flow east of the Rockies becomes increasingly zonal, while mid-level flow (~500mb) decreases to the 5-10kt range. Mid-level ridging develops across much of the eastern US as an extremely amplified (with nearly meridional flow upstream and downstream) mid-level trough progresses into the central US. Even at this time, there appears to be weak troughing (a "break" in the ridge) in the central Gulf. It's really tough to say where Ernesto will head, since it may depend upon exactly where it is by Day 5. If it's in the eastern 1/2 of the Gulf, it may move slowly northeastward; if it's in the northcentarl or northwestern Gulf, it may meander slowly given weak steering currents (with weak northerly 500mb flow beneath weak westerly 250mb flow). Of course, this is based on the GFS upperlevel forecasts, as the NAM doesn't go out that far, and the latest ECMWF isn't out yet (I'll stick to NAM, ECMWF, and GFS for upper-level forecasts over the US).

The southern end of the upper-level trough is forecast to glance the northern Gulf by Day 5... A much stronger cold front is forecast to arrive by the end of next weekend, which may bring the first bout of more autumn-like temperatures to much of the US.

[Noles2006]

Another interesting change of events.

Let's see what tomorrow has in store for us.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

700 MB flow is actually north at that time in SE TX

[Wx_Warrior]

Whew...reality show on this board...we could make a fortune! We'll have all new scenarios on Sat then Sun...

Weather will wear you out

[jasons2k]

GFS...5 days out...still a lot of uncertainty then IMO.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like I get to enjoy the Labor day weekend football after all!!!!!! My schedule is full.

[PTPatrick]

how long til GFDL comes out

[Wx_Warrior]

I have sideline passes for UH @ Rice....

[Wx_Warrior]

I think 11 am CST

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFS...5 days out...still a lot of uncertainty then IMO.

exactly. One model run of the GFS at 5-6 days out is highly variable...especially when it comes to rare early season cold fronts along the Gulf coast.

I am just having a hard time buying it right now. If it still looks this way on Sunday though, then it may be a different story.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The last GFDL i heard about was earlier when the Chief Met caled me around 8 PM. The GFDL had Cat 4 at Galveston. IT CHANGES EVERY RUN TO.

[Swimdude]

Ok... A question I really need answered... Let's say this makes a TX/LA border landfall. When, a.m. or p.m., and on what day next week, would we expect landfall? I know this isn't an exact science... But I'd appreciate a good guess... I'd like to be in Houston with my family helping to prepare if possible or necessary...

Thanks!

[HouTXmetro]

I have sideline passes for UH @ Rice....

Cool, I'll be at the PVAMU-Texas Southern game Saturday in addition to a HS game Fri night. Can't wait. But back on topic.

[clfenwi]

WHXX04 KWBC 260532
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO 05L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.2 68.4 285./14.0
6 14.6 70.0 283./15.5
12 15.1 71.6 286./16.1
18 15.9 72.8 305./13.9
24 16.4 73.9 296./12.5
30 17.2 74.9 307./12.1
36 18.0 75.9 309./12.4
42 19.0 77.1 311./15.7
48 19.7 78.2 302./12.1
54 20.4 79.5 298./14.3
60 21.1 80.6 301./12.1
66 21.8 81.9 299./13.7
72 22.5 83.1 301./13.0
78 23.1 84.4 294./13.5
84 23.6 85.6 294./12.0
90 24.1 86.5 299./ 9.9
96 24.8 87.2 313./ 8.8
102 25.3 87.7 315./ 7.8
108 26.2 88.1 337./ 9.5
114 27.1 88.2 355./ 8.9
120 28.1 88.0 10./ 9.9
126 29.3 87.8 13./11.9

...puts the storm on a recurve profile south of Alabama.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Thursday Evening first guess..

[PTPatrick]

GFDL runs every 6 hours...shoudl be coming out shortly right?

[Noles2006]

Wx... I love UH -13 in that game... sorry if you're rooting for Rice.

This had better not even think about ruining the first weekend of college 'ball for me. I've been counting down to 8/31 for months...

What an interesting system.